Daily spot trading volumes have roughly doubled versus the last cycle. Bitcoin now averages $8–22 billion per day, up from $4–13 billion previously. Futures open interest sits at a record high of $68 billion, with about 30% on CME. That shows major institutional players are active. Historic inflows, record invested capital, rising volumes, and falling volatility all point to a mid-cycle reset for the Bitcoin price.Market data shows Bitcoin's unusual strength. One-year realized volatility has almost halved, ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has significantly reduced its multi-year price targets for Bitcoin, forecasting it will reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, down from a previous target of $200,000, while maintaining a long-term outlook of $500,000 but extending the timeline to 2030 [1] Price Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,600, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours, indicating a lack of upward momentum [2] Demand Expectations - The downgrade in Bitcoin's price outlook is attributed to a recalibration of demand expectations, with the end of a major demand source and slower-than-expected institutional adoption via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being key factors [3] Market Dynamics - Future Bitcoin price increases are expected to be driven primarily by ETF buying, as aggressive corporate buying has diminished. Current quarterly inflows of 50,000 BTC are the lowest since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, compared to 450,000 BTC purchased per quarter in late 2024 [4] Economic Influences - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is impacting risk-on asset classes, with investors anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in the upcoming interest rate decision, which is contingent on the Fed Chairman's guidance for the following year [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the FOMC could lead to easier monetary policy, encouraging investment in "hard" assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. A majority of users on prediction market Myriad expect Hassett to be nominated as Fed chair before March 2026 [6] Near-Term Outlook - Bitcoin's near-term outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analysts indicating that the cryptocurrency has retested the $90,000 level multiple times in recent weeks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have significantly reduced their price target for Strategy shares while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, reflecting a positive long-term outlook despite recent declines in share value and Bitcoin prices [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Valuation - The new 12-month price target for Strategy's stock is set at $229, which is approximately 59% lower than the previous estimate of $560 [2]. - Analysts have adjusted the valuation of Strategy's treasury operations, decreasing it from $364 per share to $74 per share [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Company Performance - Strategy's shares have dropped over 50% in the past six months, with the stock price falling to $178 recently [2][4]. - Bitcoin's price has decreased nearly 30% from a high of over $126,000 in early October, dropping below $90,000 [4]. Group 3: Financial Strategy and Risks - Analysts expect Strategy to raise $7.8 billion from capital markets over the next year, down from a previous expectation of $22.5 billion [3]. - The company has established a $1.44 billion cash reserve to cover dividend payments for nearly two years, and its convertible debt of $8.2 billion does not mature until 2028 [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are concerns about a potential "crypto winter," but analysts believe that fears regarding Strategy are exaggerated [4]. - Despite the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, analysts do not foresee an end to Strategy's Bitcoin-buying activities, although the company has acknowledged the possibility of selling under certain conditions [6]. Group 5: MSCI Indices and Market Impact - Analysts noted that the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI's indices could lead to $2.8 billion in outflows, which is a concern that is somewhat warranted [7]. - Historically, Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings by issuing common stock, but this method has become less effective as its market cap has fallen below the value of its crypto holdings [7].

Market Sentiment - The crypto market is experiencing a sentiment reset, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining 1.6% to trade above $93,000, while Ether (ETH) shows signs of a bear-trap [1] - Several altcoins, including SUI, PUMP, ENA, LINK, and AAVE, have posted double-digit gains in the past 24 hours, reflecting increased interest in the broader market [2] - The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes have advanced by 6%-7% during the same period, indicating a bullish mood [2] Federal Reserve Influence - There is uncertainty regarding leadership at the Federal Reserve, with prediction markets favoring Kevin Hassett as a potential new chairman, which could lead to a more dovish FOMC panel [2] - A 25 basis-point interest-rate cut is anticipated for next week, with investment banks predicting additional cuts for the following year [3] - Despite the expected rate cuts, Treasury yields and the dollar remain stable, contributing to a sense of unease in the market [3] Price Levels and Market Confidence - Market confidence is expected to increase once Bitcoin surpasses $100,000, as noted by FxPro's chief market analyst [3] - The $98K-100K range is significant, containing key levels such as the 50-day average and early November support, which could influence buyer sentiment [4] - A consolidation above this range may suggest that a crypto winter is not imminent [4] Traditional Markets - Gold is struggling despite a recent bullish breakout, which is often seen before price corrections, potentially leading to a rotation of funds into Bitcoin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant selloff, with Bitcoin dropping below $85,000 and a total market cap loss of $1 trillion over the past month. This situation raises concerns about a potential "crypto winter" [1][2]. Company Insights - Michael Sailor's Strategy, which holds approximately 3% of all Bitcoin, has established a cash reserve of $1.44 billion to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and to ensure they do not have to sell Bitcoin to cover dividends or debt interest [1][2]. - The CEO of Strategy indicated that they would sell Bitcoin if necessary, but the creation of the cash reserve suggests a strategy to avoid forced selling during downturns [2][3]. - The company recently purchased 130 Bitcoin tokens, indicating a continued investment strategy despite current market conditions [3]. Industry Trends - The cryptocurrency market is currently characterized by a "risk-off" sentiment, with investors pulling back amid uncertainty, including government shutdowns and fluctuating Federal Reserve policies [1]. - Ethereum, as a productive asset, is viewed favorably by some companies, with its fundamentals in DeFi and staking continuing to grow despite the market downturn [1]. - The market is experiencing thin liquidity and significant outflows, particularly in Bitcoin ETFs, which may indicate a struggle to find a bottom for Bitcoin prices [1].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced record withdrawals in November 2025, with a total of $3.79 billion pulled from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, surpassing the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025 [5][3] - Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, saw significant price declines, with Bitcoin dropping over 33% from its all-time high of $126,000 to around $84,000 [4][7] - The outflows were primarily driven by profit-taking after a rapid bull run and macroeconomic factors, including strong U.S. jobs data and rising interest rate expectations [8][7] Withdrawal Dynamics - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund accounted for 91% of the November withdrawals, with outflows of $2.47 billion and $1.09 billion respectively [2][6] - On November 20, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $903 million in net outflows, marking the largest single-day loss since their launch [3] Market Sentiment and Comparisons - The current wave of withdrawals has led to comparisons with the 2022 "crypto winter," but key differences suggest this sell-off may not lead to a prolonged downturn [12][13] - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11, indicating "extreme fear," the lowest level since late 2022 [9] Emerging Opportunities - New XRP and Solana ETFs attracted significant inflows, with Solana funds pulling in $531 million and XRP ETFs registering $410 million in early inflows, indicating a shift in investor interest away from Bitcoin [10][6] - Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin reached a circulating supply of over $1 billion, showcasing ongoing interest in regulated digital assets [14] Institutional and Regulatory Landscape - The presence of SEC-approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and stronger institutional foundations contrasts with the 2022 downturn, where institutional participation was limited [12] - Regulatory uncertainties remain, with potential new legislation and tax policies still unclear, which could impact market dynamics [20]

Market Overview - The markets experienced a negative week due to concerns over a potential A.I. bubble [1] - The cryptocurrency markets are facing significant downturns, leading to fears of another crypto winter among investors [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on growth and dividend income, with a strategy aimed at creating a portfolio for easy retirement [1] - The portfolio is structured to generate monthly dividend income that grows through reinvestment and annual increases [1]

Core Insights - There is a bipartisan consensus among lawmakers that market structure legislation for the cryptocurrency space is urgently needed [2][3] - The legislation aims to clarify which digital assets fall under federal securities laws versus commodities laws, providing a regulatory framework for companies like Coinbase [3][4] - The SEC chairman has indicated that most digital assets are not securities, emphasizing the need for clear rules to avoid prolonged enforcement actions that cost companies and customers millions [5] Regulatory Developments - The agriculture committee has voted to confirm Michael Celig as the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), who is seen as pro-crypto [6][7] - Celig's confirmation is expected to facilitate the establishment of critical rules for the cryptocurrency sector [7] Market Sentiment - Bitcoin's price is currently around $86,000, with concerns about a potential "crypto winter" as significant amounts of money have exited Bitcoin ETFs, including a reported half a trillion from the Eyesshares IBIT ETF [8][9] - Historical cycles of market sentiment are acknowledged, with many long-term investors remaining optimistic about the potential of the crypto economy [10][11] Industry Perspective - The cryptocurrency sector is experiencing growing pains as it evolves, with ongoing developments being closely monitored [12]

Ark Invest Trades Summary - Ark Invest significantly increased its holdings in Bullish, Coinbase, Circle Internet Group, and Shopify while selling a large number of Pinterest shares [1] Bullish Trade - Ark Fintech Innovation ETF acquired 28,186 shares of Bullish, valued at approximately $1.06 million based on a closing price of $37.76 [2] - Analysts anticipate Bullish's third-quarter earnings per share to drop to $0.09 from $0.93 in the previous quarter, while revenue is expected to rise to $72.39 million from $58.63 million [3] - Ark purchased nearly $10.02 million worth of Bullish stock amid a crash in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum [4] Coinbase Trade - ARKF and ARK Innovation ETF collectively purchased 11,620 shares of Coinbase, totaling around $3.04 million at a closing price of $261.79 [5] - Coinbase's stock has been affected by a crypto-market crash, raising concerns about a deeper crypto winter despite recent wins, including a strong third quarter and new partnerships [6] Circle Trade - Ark's ARKF and ARKK funds added 40,071 shares of Circle Internet Group, valued at approximately $3.06 million based on a closing price of $76.60 [7] - Analysts have turned bullish on Circle, with upgrades from Baird and Bernstein, reflecting optimism about its future performance [8] Shopify Trade - Ark's ARKK fund purchased 33,992 shares of Shopify, amounting to approximately $4.8 million at a closing price of $140.45 [9] - Shopify reported a 32% year-over-year revenue increase for the third quarter, surpassing analyst expectations, and anticipates continued growth in the fourth quarter [10] Pinterest Trade - ARKK sold 203,244 shares of Pinterest, valued at approximately $5.23 million based on a closing price of $25.77 [11] - Pinterest's third-quarter earnings report was disappointing, with adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share missing expectations of 42 cents, despite a 17% revenue increase [12]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has entered "extreme fear territory" after failing to maintain above the $100,000 level, with a significant decline from its all-time high of $126,272.76 on October 6 [1][2] - The price of Bitcoin fell over 9% in the week ending November 14, trading below $92,000, influenced by large crypto "whales" selling the asset [2][3] - Bitcoin has officially entered "bear market" territory, marking a decline of 20% or more from its recent peak, and has experienced a "death cross" technical pattern [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the negative indicators, some experts believe that the current situation does not signify a "crypto winter," but rather a maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class [3][4] - The current decline is described as a market-structure transition rather than a cyclical bear market, indicating a change in ownership and trading dynamics [4] Institutional Adoption - The current period of declining prices is noted to be "distinguishably different" due to Bitcoin's maturation and increasing institutional adoption, highlighted by J.P. Morgan's acceptance of Bitcoin as collateral [6] - Data indicates that investors selling Bitcoin are doing so at net profit, suggesting that capitulation or margin calls have not yet occurred, while retail investors are not buying the dip [7]