The first principle off which almost everybody, every American investor is operating is well this would be like the 70s. We went off the gold standard 71 and gold went up a bunch and then Vulkar came in and raised rates and gold went back. It was just a trade. There was a debasement.Vulker took care of it all. Well, Vulkar took rates to 15%. If the Fed took rates to six today, they would literally blow up the entire not just stock market, but housing and the Treasury market.We know this. This is not specula ...

Core Insights - The "debasement trade" narrative in cryptocurrency is gaining popularity, with a focus on moving from government-backed assets to "hard" assets like Bitcoin and gold [1][2] - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against the declining value of fiat currencies due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins and independence from central banks [2][3] - The increasing global debt and persistent inflation concerns are driving momentum for the debasement trade, positioning Bitcoin as a strategy to safeguard wealth [3] Industry Context - Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, with its genesis block referencing bank bailouts, highlighting its role as a solution to traditional financial instability [4][5] - The cryptocurrency's fundamental thesis has always aligned with the debasement trade concept, emphasizing its purpose as a safeguard against monetary dilution [5] - Financial markets are reacting to US policy changes, which can lead to abrupt market shifts, as seen in the recent market crash related to tariff fears [6]

The US national debt just crossed $ 38 trillion. That makes us the first country in human history to have accumulated that much debt. But wait a second.This isn't a milestone that we should be celebrating. In fact, this is freaking insane. We should be appalled that our country's leadership has lacked the financial discipline to avoid the scenario.A big driver of the catastrophic destiny that we've been pre-ordained to is that we are addicted to money printing. Jesse Meyers writes that the money printer has ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 55% year-to-date, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, but the market is currently experiencing a price pullback, leading to uncertainty among investors about the continuation of the bull run [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The current gold market is driven by a structural shift towards hard assets, with gold being viewed as a crucial monetary asset amid currency debasement concerns [2] - Central banks are buying gold at a historic pace, adding 415 tons to their reserves in the first half of 2025, with countries like China and Poland diversifying their holdings [3] - Gold has overtaken the Euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset, providing a strong price floor [3] Group 2: Future Projections - Analysts from major institutions, including Bank of America, suggest that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce due to its re-evaluation as a monetary asset rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors can gain exposure to gold through two primary strategies: direct price exposure via SPDR Gold Trust or leveraged growth through gold mining companies [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust is a physically-backed ETF with over $140 billion in assets under management, providing a straightforward option for tracking gold prices [6] - For higher returns, investing in gold mining companies like Newmont Corporation offers potential for amplified gains due to operational leverage [8][9] Group 4: Company Insights - Newmont Corporation reported a record $1.7 billion in quarterly free cash flow and maintains a low net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.1x, indicating strong financial health [11] - Newmont's management is focused on returning capital to shareholders, maintaining a quarterly dividend and authorizing a $3 billion share repurchase program [11] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF provides diversification by holding a basket of leading mining companies, including Newmont and Barrick Gold, with nearly $24 billion in assets [12] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Recent market actions indicate strong investor conviction, with over $1.7 billion poured into the SPDR Gold Trust during a recent price pullback, suggesting that investors view the dip as a buying opportunity [10] - The fundamental case for gold is strengthened by ongoing central bank buying and concerns over fiat currency stability, making the recent price correction a strategic window for investors [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has resumed his advocacy for Bitcoin, labeling it as "energy money" that cannot be faked, contrasting it with fiat currency which can be easily debased by governments [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin Advocacy - Musk's recent comments have led to a significant rebound in Bitcoin's price, rising to approximately $112,000 after hitting a low of $102,000 during a liquidation event that erased over $19 billion in leveraged positions [3]. - This endorsement represents Musk's most robust pro-Bitcoin stance since Tesla's $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin in 2021 [3]. - Musk's history with Bitcoin has been marked by volatility, including a 10% price surge when he added "bitcoin" to his Twitter bio in January 2021 and a subsequent 12% decline after reversing Tesla's decision to accept Bitcoin due to environmental concerns [4]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Holdings - Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 2022 for $936 million, retaining only $184 million worth [4]. - SpaceX reportedly wrote down $373 million in Bitcoin holdings between 2021 and 2022, yet still holds 6,977 BTC valued at approximately $818 million [5]. Group 3: AI and Energy Concerns - Musk's endorsement of Bitcoin is linked to concerns over currency debasement driven by the funding needs for AI infrastructure expansion [7]. - The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that data centers could consume between 325 and 580 terawatt-hours annually by 2028, which is equivalent to powering 30-50 million homes [7]. - To meet the projected energy demands of AI, it is estimated that 40-70 new nuclear reactors would be required by 2028, each generating around 8,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy yearly [7].

In USD terms, US assets look euphoric. The NASDAQ's up 165%, the S&P's up 102 and home prices are up 56% since CO. But when you redenominate in gold, those gains, they shrink to flat.In Bitcoin, they implode. NASDAQ's down 78, S&P's down 84, home prices are down 87. What appears as growth is simply the mirror image of a collapsing unit of account.Now, this is the same pattern that appears at the end of every major currency regime. People feel richer in the debasing unit because the unit is melting faster th ...

Geopolitical & Economic Analysis - The US political system mirrors the late Roman empire, exhibiting similar characteristics such as a corrupt senate, over-extended military, and currency debasement [1] - Globalism is perceived as declining, creating opportunities for agorists and cypherpunks who leverage new technologies [3] - Elites are investing in AI for control and perception engineering [4] Technological & Cryptographic Focus - Hard cryptography is identified as a crucial tool for resistance, enabling sovereign economies, free speech, and community defense in ungovernable internet spaces [4] - The crypto industry is urged to recognize the importance of hard cryptography and its potential value [5] Societal & Ideological Commentary - Current societal trends, including neo-christianity and MAGA, are viewed as ineffective solutions, with a call for a return to local community, nations, and patriotic ethno-regionalism [2] - Progressive elites are described as aiming to accelerate big tech and asteroid mining, potentially requiring mass conscription of labor [3]

Market Trend & Investment Philosophy - Bitcoin is viewed as a simple savings technology, attracting investors due to the perception that central banks will continue printing money, thus driving its value up [1] - Bitcoin is becoming the hurdle rate in finance, outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 when priced in Bitcoin [2] - Investors are increasingly buying Bitcoin as a "debasement trade," avoiding the complexities of traditional financial analysis [1] Supply Dynamics - A significant portion of Bitcoin is being taken into illiquid supply, suggesting long-term holding strategies among Bitcoin owners [4][5] - The increasing illiquid supply, coupled with rising demand, is expected to drive Bitcoin's price higher due to its finite supply [5][6] Competition & Comparison - Gold and Bitcoin are both seen as benefiting from currency debasement, with Bitcoin characterized as "gold with wings" due to its higher volatility and smaller market cap [7][8] - While gold has outperformed Bitcoin YTD (up 50% vs 33%), Bitcoin's average Q4 return since 2015 is 60% [7] - Over a 5-year period, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold (up 1,000% vs 100%) [8] Investor Demographics & Institutional Adoption - Gold investors tend to be older, including central banks and institutions, while Bitcoin adoption is growing among older demographics [9] - There is an aspiration within the Bitcoin community for central banks to eventually hold Bitcoin as part of their treasury reserves [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current crypto bull market is expected to continue, driven by early-stage global monetary trends and aggressive monetary expansion by governments worldwide [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Landscape - U.S. politics, particularly the potential spending programs from President Trump's second term, could significantly influence market liquidity from mid-2026 onward [2]. - Expectations for extreme money printing may lead to partial profit-taking, but currently, investors are underestimating the liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The erosion of a unipolar world order is seen as a catalyst for increased fiscal stimulus and central bank easing, as policymakers respond to periods of instability [3]. - Potential strains within Europe, including the risk of a French default, could further accelerate global monetary expansion [4]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Performance and Market Position - Bitcoin's performance is contrasted with other asset classes, showing that while U.S. stocks have increased in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis [5]. - Traditional benchmarks appear weak when measured against bitcoin, highlighting its dominance in the current market [6][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The perspective that governments will print money during economic downturns is shared by both traditional finance and crypto investors, with the latter viewing bitcoin as a superior asset [7]. - Patience is emphasized as crucial for bitcoin holders, with the real advantage coming from long-term compounding rather than short-term speculation [7]. - The current crypto cycle is anticipated to extend well into 2026, indicating that it is far from exhausted [8].

Economic Outlook - The bond rally's sustainability is questioned, with considerations on economic and inflation outlooks [1][4] - The yield curve has started to flatten, indicating potential changes in short-term yields [2][3] Market Sentiment - There is significant demand for various asset classes, including US, European, and emerging market equities, as well as bonds and liquid alternatives [6][7] - Despite concerns about a potential US recession and a weakening labor market, there remains optimism in the market [4][7] Commodity Performance - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are showing strong performance and potential breakout [5] - Gold is being favored as a protective asset amid concerns about currency debasement, with central banks increasing their purchases [8][9] Investment Trends - Investors are actively looking to deploy cash across multiple asset classes, reflecting a positive sentiment towards economic strength [6][7] - The resilience of urban areas, such as London, suggests a robust economic environment despite mixed industrial production numbers [11][12]