On January 27 , 2026, while speaking to reporters, Trump said the value of the dollar was "great" when asked if he thought it had declined too much. Just three days later, heDecoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s why I never t ...

Market Overview - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with spot gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver plunging up to 11.9% during Asian trading hours on Monday [1] - The previous session saw the steepest intraday loss on record for silver, indicating extreme volatility in the precious metals market [1] Investor Sentiment - Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader, noted that market liquidity is constrained due to a reluctance to take further risks, suggesting that the market is currently crowded with trades [2] - The surge in precious metals prices was driven by geopolitical concerns, currency debasement, and the Federal Reserve's independence, with significant buying from Chinese speculators contributing to the rally [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The behavior of Chinese investors in buying dips will be crucial in determining market direction following the recent selloff [3] - Despite a fall in the Shanghai benchmark price, it continues to trade at a premium over international prices, with increased retail demand expected ahead of the Lunar New Year [3][4] Price Movements and Economic Factors - The selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted gold and silver prices [5] - Precious metals were already facing extreme volatility, with a record wave of call option purchases reinforcing upward price momentum [6] Supply and Demand Factors - In the silver market, hot money inflows in China have led to domestic supply tightness, but this may ease as investment demand diminishes due to the recent price rout [7] - As of 12:15 p.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,671.53 per ounce, down 4.6%, while silver declined to $78.86, a drop of 7.4% [8]

Crypto asset manager Bitwise debuted an exchange-traded fund on Thursday that offers exposure to cryptocurrency and precious metals, positioning the product as a way for investors to capitalize on the debasement of fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. The Bitwise Proficio Currency Debasement ETF, which trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol BPRO, is issued in partnership with Proficio Capital Partners, a Boston-based investment advisory firm that manages around $5 billion in assets, according to ...

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Everything becomes a casino when the money is destroyed.We will look back at the decision to pursue QE coming out of the Global Financial Crisis as one of the biggest monetary policy mistakes in history.Look around at zero day options, sports gambling, prediction markets, altcoins, and many more examples.You can blame the market participants, but they are merely following the incentives.The real blame lies with those who decided to debase the currency at an accelerated rate. ...

Core Thesis - Newmont Corporation (NEM) is positioned as an insurance policy against Federal Reserve policy, fiscal dominance, and currency debasement [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has made its position clear regarding liquidity and balance-sheet expansion [1]

Investment Allocation - Harvard University increased its Bitcoin investment to $443 million in Q3 [1] - Harvard University increased its gold ETF allocation to $235 million in Q3 [1] - Harvard University's Bitcoin investment is approximately 1.88 times larger than its gold ETF allocation [1] Market Sentiment - The market interprets Harvard's investment strategy as a bet on currency debasement [1] - The market notes Harvard favors Bitcoin over gold at a roughly 2-to-1 ratio [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has inherent disadvantages as a store of value compared to gold, as highlighted by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, emphasizing the reliance on external networks for transaction processing [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin vs. Gold - Dalio expressed a preference for gold over Bitcoin, citing concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and its potential use by central banks for international trade [3]. - Gold's advantage lies in its physical form, allowing it to be held without dependence on external entities, while Bitcoin requires a network for transactions [6]. - The price of gold has reached record highs this year due to fears of currency debasement, which Dalio has previously warned investors to hedge against [2]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Dalio has allocated a "small percentage" of his portfolio to Bitcoin, estimating it to be around 1% of his overall wealth, while suggesting a 15% allocation to Bitcoin and gold for investors [5]. - The Czech National Bank has made its first investment in crypto, amounting to $100 million across Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized bank deposits, indicating a growing institutional interest in digital assets [4]. Group 3: Concerns about Bitcoin - Dalio raised concerns about Bitcoin's potential to be tracked and controlled, especially with advancements in quantum computing, which could pose risks to its security [3][4]. - The transparency of Bitcoin transactions on a public ledger makes it relatively easy to trace once linked to an identity, although coin mixers can obscure transaction flows [5].

Monetary Policy & Market Impact - The market's current operating principle is likened to the 1970s, but the Fed raising rates to 6% today would devastate the stock market, housing market, and Treasury market [1] - Empirical evidence suggests Treasury market dysfunction has been observed multiple times before reaching 5% in the last 5 years [2] Debasement & Investment Strategy - The debasement trade is considered a secular trend rather than a temporary event, implying a long-term perspective [3] - The recommended investment strategy is to buy dips rather than sell rallies, indicating a bullish outlook [3] - While 20-30% corrections are possible, they do not signal the end of the market [2] Currency & Debt - The current situation is characterized as a currency issue stemming from choices made over the last 30 years with borrowed money [3]

Core Insights - The "debasement trade" narrative in cryptocurrency is gaining popularity, with a focus on moving from government-backed assets to "hard" assets like Bitcoin and gold [1][2] - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against the declining value of fiat currencies due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins and independence from central banks [2][3] - The increasing global debt and persistent inflation concerns are driving momentum for the debasement trade, positioning Bitcoin as a strategy to safeguard wealth [3] Industry Context - Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, with its genesis block referencing bank bailouts, highlighting its role as a solution to traditional financial instability [4][5] - The cryptocurrency's fundamental thesis has always aligned with the debasement trade concept, emphasizing its purpose as a safeguard against monetary dilution [5] - Financial markets are reacting to US policy changes, which can lead to abrupt market shifts, as seen in the recent market crash related to tariff fears [6]