Turkey posted a record current-account surplus in August as tourism revenues and offered temporary relief to the country’s external finances https://t.co/J8ifo8hxnh ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Data Watch: Asia Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the economic outlook for Asia, particularly China and its domestic demand, as well as the broader implications for emerging markets in Asia. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand in China continues to underperform, leading to a reduction in the 3Q GDP growth forecast to 2.3% quarter-on-quarter annualized (q/q ar) from 3.0% [1] 2. **Impact of Trade-in Subsidies**: August retail sales have softened due to the fading impact of trade-in subsidies and weak consumer confidence [1] 3. **Industrial Production and Investment**: Industrial production has moderated, and fixed asset investment has collapsed, attributed to anti-involution policies, limited funding for infrastructure, and ongoing weakness in the housing market [1] 4. **Future Growth Projections**: Despite the current slowdown, average GDP growth on a year-on-year (o/y) basis is expected to remain at 5%, aligning with the full-year target, which reduces the urgency for immediate policy action [1] 5. **4Q Growth Expectations**: Sequential slowdowns are anticipated to drag down 4Q growth to 3.9% o/y, increasing pressures for more easing measures [2] 6. **Policy Easing Measures**: Expected easing measures include a tactical pause in anti-involution efforts, earlier monetary easing, and potential fiscal support through front-loading the 2026 budget or utilizing remaining debt ceiling limits [2] 7. **Export Trends in Asia**: The report notes a significant contraction in exports across several Asian countries, including a 9% sequential contraction in Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in August, indicating a reversal from earlier growth [3] 8. **Japan's Export Performance**: Japan's real exports were nearly flat in August, with a notable 12% month-on-month (m/m) decline in exports to the US, influenced by tariff agreement timings [8] 9. **Taiwan's Resilience**: Taiwan's exports remain robust, driven by strong tech exports, with first-half growth reaching nearly 10% [9] 10. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination**: The report highlights the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies in the region, as monetary easing has not sufficiently boosted domestic demand [10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Political Discontent**: Sluggish domestic demand and employment issues have led to political discontent in several countries, prompting calls for more policy support [10] 2. **Indonesia's Monetary Policy**: Bank Indonesia has implemented consecutive rate cuts to support growth, reflecting a desire for fiscal-monetary coordination amidst political developments [10] 3. **Fiscal Stimulus in Other Countries**: Countries like Korea and India have announced fiscal stimulus measures, indicating a trend towards increased fiscal support in response to economic challenges [11] 4. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The report suggests that structural changes and fiscal consolidation could enhance Japan's medium- to long-term growth potential, despite current concerns over debt sustainability [30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the economic landscape in Asia, particularly focusing on China, Japan, and the broader emerging markets.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Balance of Payments (BOP) Q2 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's Balance of Payments (BOP) data for Q2 2025, highlighting the current account surplus and capital/financial account dynamics. Key Points and Arguments Current Account Performance - China's current account surplus decreased to **US$135 billion**, or **2.9% of GDP** in Q2 2025, down from **3.8% in Q1 2025** [2] - The goods trade surplus remained strong due to robust exports and soft imports, while the services trade deficit narrowed due to increased inbound tourism and decreased outbound tourism [2] - The income and transfer balance showed larger outflows in Q2 compared to Q1, primarily due to seasonal factors [2] Capital and Financial Account Dynamics - The capital and financial account recorded slower net outflows, with direct investment outflows at **US$21 billion** in Q2, down from **US$34 billion** in Q1 2025 [3] - Portfolio investment outflows likely accelerated, with foreign investors selling approximately **US$16 billion** in bonds in Q2, compared to **US$27 billion** in purchases in Q1 [3] - Foreign investors only purchased **US$2 billion** of onshore equities in Q2, down from around **US$8 billion** in Q1 [3] Reserve Assets and Future Projections - Reserve assets decreased by **US$10 billion** in Q2, compared to a **US$31 billion** decrease in Q1 2025 [4] - The report anticipates an increase in China's overall current account surplus to **3.4% of GDP** in 2025 from **2.2% in 2024**, driven by a wider goods trade surplus and a narrower services trade deficit [10] - The broad balance of payments (BBOP) is projected to rise to **2.1% of GDP** in 2025 from **0.4% in 2024**, supporting a positive outlook on the RMB [10] Additional Insights - The report indicates low odds of significant re-escalation in US-China trade tensions, which supports stronger-than-expected export growth [10] - The anticipated recovery in inbound tourism is expected to contribute to a slight narrowing of the services trade deficit in 2025 [10] Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the seasonal nature of the income and transfer balance, which may not be immediately apparent in quarterly comparisons [2] - The detailed breakdown of portfolio and other investment flows is expected to be released towards the end of September, which could provide further insights into investment trends [3] This summary encapsulates the essential findings and projections regarding China's BOP for Q2 2025, highlighting both current performance and future expectations.

India’s current account returned a better than expected surplus in the January-March quarter https://t.co/Djjs9ZrS4q ...