12 January 2026 | 10:19AM EST Economics Research Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: US Economic Data Surprises to the Upside Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. L ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative skew in economic data surprises across developed markets (DMs) [2][4]. Core Insights - The GS Macro Data Assessment (MAP) Surprise Indices have turned negative across DMs over the last several weeks, indicating a decline in economic performance relative to expectations [2][4]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased primarily due to movements in equities and credit spreads, suggesting tighter financial conditions impacting growth [9][30]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for June shows a global value of +1.9%, with emerging markets performing better than developed markets [49][46]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The MAP surprise indices reflect a negative trend in economic indicators across multiple developed countries, suggesting a downturn in economic activity [2][4]. - The CAI for June indicates a +1.9% growth globally, with emerging markets like India and China showing stronger performance compared to developed markets [49][46]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has eased, primarily influenced by equity markets and credit spreads, indicating a tightening of financial conditions that could affect GDP growth [9][30]. - The report highlights that the FCI levels across various countries have shown significant changes, with notable tightening in regions like China and Turkey [37][30]. GDP Forecasts - The report presents changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with Vietnam projected to grow by 1.9%, while the US shows a downward adjustment [92][93]. - The GDP forecast adjustments reflect a broader trend of declining growth expectations across developed markets compared to emerging markets [92][93].

Economic Indicators - Global hard data shows resilience while soft data normalizes, indicating a stable economic environment[3] - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased primarily due to equities, short rates, and credit spreads, reflecting tighter financial conditions[8] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May shows a global increase of +1.6% month-on-month annualized, with emerging markets leading at +3.6%[12][47] GDP Forecasts - Goldman Sachs revised its GDP forecast for 2025, with notable increases in Japan and the Euro Area, while Canada saw a decrease[10][93] - The change in GDP forecast since 60 days ago shows Taiwan with an increase of +1.9 percentage points, while Turkey increased by +1.2 percentage points in the last week[10][93] Inflation Trends - The trimmed core inflation forecast for 2025 indicates a decrease across several regions, with Turkey showing the largest increase of +1.9 percentage points[88][90] - The inflation forecast for 2026 also reflects similar trends, with notable adjustments in various countries, including a decrease in the UK and Canada[90][91] Labor Market Insights - The jobs-workers gap has shown significant changes since December 2019, with the US and UK experiencing notable declines[21][70] - Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across G10 economies, with the US showing a composition-adjusted increase[63][64]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The growth signal from US soft data has improved, indicating a better trade policy outlook [2][4] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for the US shows a value of +1.6% for May, reflecting a positive trend in economic activity [14][50] - The global CAI has ticked up to +2.3% in May, suggesting a recovery in economic conditions [14][50] - Emerging markets, particularly India, show strong growth signals with a CAI of +7.6% in April [14][50] Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The report highlights improvements in soft data indicators, particularly in the US, which are expected to positively influence economic growth [2][4] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased, primarily due to short-term interest rates, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][28] Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The CAI for various regions shows positive growth signals, with the US at +1.6% and global CAI at +2.3% for May [14][50] - Developed markets show a CAI of +1.0%, while emerging markets are significantly higher at +4.1% [14][50] GDP Forecasts - The report indicates a change in GDP forecasts for 2025, with notable increases for India and the US, reflecting stronger economic performance [12][97] - The global GDP forecast has been adjusted, with a focus on emerging markets showing resilience and growth potential [12][97] Inflation and Wage Trends - Wage trackers indicate underlying wage growth across G10 economies, which may influence inflation dynamics [22][69] - The report discusses trimmed core inflation measures, which provide insights into underlying price pressures in the economy [62][94]