Core Viewpoint - India's growth forecast of 7.0%–7.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 is under considerable downside risk due to rising energy costs and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Iran war [1][2]. Economic Impact - The conflict has disrupted goods movement through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global oil, leading to increased energy and freight costs, thereby straining supply chains [2]. - The trade deficit is expected to rise significantly in the next financial year, contributing to a widening current account deficit [2]. Government Response - The Indian government has not yet passed rising energy costs to consumers, recently cutting central excise duties on petrol and diesel by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter to prevent price increases [4]. - Duties on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel have been raised to ensure adequate domestic availability, although this may negatively impact tax revenues [5]. Future Projections - A note from global brokerage Nomura indicates that if crude oil prices remain elevated, pump prices will likely increase after state elections scheduled for April, with final results on May 4 [6].

Market Performance - The Sensex fell 1.37 per cent, or 1,100 points, closing at 78,918, while the Nifty 50 declined 1.27 per cent, or 315 points, settling at 24,450 [4] - Both indices recorded their steepest weekly losses in over a year, dropping nearly 3 per cent, marking the Nifty 50's worst weekly performance since February 2025 and the Sensex's sharpest fall since December 2024 [4][7] - The indices ended at their lowest levels since April last year [4] Investor Activity - Investors' wealth in Indian equity markets declined by nearly Rs 14 trillion during the week, including a Rs 3.2 trillion loss on Friday [5] - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 21,831 crore during the week, with around Rs 6,000 crore sold on Friday alone [5][7] - Domestic institutional investors were net buyers in all four trading sessions of the week [5] Oil Price Impact - Brent crude prices breached the $90 per barrel mark for the first time in almost two years, raising global energy concerns amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia [3][7] - The price for a barrel of Brent crude jumped another 6 per cent to $90.60, climbing around 25 per cent during the week, the most since March 2022 [10][13] - Higher oil prices are expected to widen India's trade deficit, fuel inflation, and strain the country's current account and fiscal balances [11][12] Sector Performance - Most sectoral indices ended in the red, with the exception of IT and chemicals, which saw marginal gains [15] - Major banks, including ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and State Bank of India, faced pressure due to concerns that rising crude prices could increase borrowing costs and squeeze margins [15][16] - Shares of oil marketing companies extended losses amid worries that higher crude prices could hurt marketing margins [16]

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank chief, Gabriel Galipolo, indicates that the country's economy is showing resilience despite ongoing inflationary pressures and a widening current account deficit [1] Economic Fundamentals - Galipolo emphasizes that the economic fundamentals of Brazil remain strong, suggesting a stable outlook for the country's economic performance [1]