But my next guest sees the index heading higher ultimately into year end. Let's bring in macro risk advisors John Kovvis. John, it's uh it's great to catch up with you here.I mean, we're, you know, S&P bleeding lower here down about 8/10 of 1% and there was some excitement when we got that breakout above 6,800. It seemed pretty emphatic. Where does this leave us uh as we just kind of give back some of those recent gains.>> Hey Mike, good to see you again. Uh, I think ultimately until we break the October lo ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that most equities have entered or are on the cusp of a bear market, with a focus on the potential for further downside [4][5][22]. Core Insights - The report identifies three types of bear markets: Structural, Cyclical, and Event-driven, with the current market being classified as Event-driven due to tariff triggers, but with a risk of transitioning into a Cyclical bear market [4][12][21]. - Average declines in both Event-driven and Cyclical bear markets are around 30%, but they differ in duration, with Event-driven downturns being shorter and recovering faster [22][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation adjustments, extreme positioning, policy support, and signs of improving growth for a sustained market recovery [40][45][58]. Summary by Sections Bear Market Types - Structural bear markets are triggered by imbalances and bubbles, Cyclical bear markets by rising interest rates and recessions, and Event-driven bear markets by one-off shocks [13][19]. - Historical data shows that Structural bear markets have the most severe impacts, averaging declines of around 60% and taking a decade to recover [15][19]. Current Market Analysis - The current market is characterized as an Event-driven bear market, primarily influenced by tariff increases, with a noted probability of recession rising to 45% [21][22]. - The report highlights that the US equity market has seen significant de-rating, particularly in technology stocks, which has impacted overall market performance [5][22]. Recovery Conditions - For a sustained recovery, the report outlines that valuations need to adjust further, and the market must see a combination of cheap valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention, and signs of improving growth [40][45][58]. - The report notes that while the US market remains expensive relative to historical standards, other markets are not particularly inexpensive either [41][44]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - The report discusses the recent significant drop in market sentiment, indicating a broad-based 'risk-off' approach among investors, which historically signals better opportunities for buying [60][62]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator has shown a considerable decline, suggesting that market positioning is adjusting to a more negative outlook [60][62].