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药明生物(02269):1H25继续复苏,中长期确定性边际改善;当前估值合理,维持中性
BOCOM International· 2025-08-21 14:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 11.0% from the current closing price of HKD 30.62 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 (1H25) shows a continued recovery trend, with a strong order intake of 86 new contracts, marking a historical high for the first half of the year. However, there are concerns regarding the impact of changes in overseas financing and market dynamics on early-stage clinical projects, leading to a decrease in revenue from this segment [2][6]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to a range of 14-16%, up from the previous 12-15%, while maintaining a positive free cash flow outlook [6][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term growth drivers for the company remain strong, particularly through its proprietary technologies and the increasing number of projects in hand, which have grown by 10% compared to the end of 2024 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 21,312 million, with a growth forecast of 16% for 1H25 compared to the previous period. The gross profit is expected to reach RMB 9,157 million, reflecting a gross margin of 43.0% [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 5,005 million, with a net profit margin of 23.5% [5][13]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 124.64 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 74.37% [4][12]. Order and Project Insights - In 1H25, the company secured 86 new comprehensive projects, with over 70% being dual/multi-antibody and ADC projects. The report notes that the number of M-end projects has increased to 24, with expectations to complete 25 PPQ projects in 2025 [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proprietary technology in generating future revenue streams, including collaboration income and sales commissions [6][7]. Market and Regional Performance - Revenue growth in North America was 20%, while the Chinese mainland saw an 8.5% decline due to financing environment impacts. Japan and South Korea showed strong performance, indicating potential for further growth in these regions [6][7].