交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 9 月 25 日 医药行业周报 医保和商保目录调整加速推进，板块回调中择时布局低估优质标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 9/24 1/25 5/25 9/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ( ...

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - There is a divergence between domestic and foreign capital in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on timing and selecting undervalued quality stocks in the innovative drug supply chain [1][4] - The report suggests that after a broad rally in innovative drugs, the importance of timing and stock selection has significantly increased, recommending gradual positioning during market corrections [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.9% during the week of September 9-16, 2025, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.0%, ranking 12th among 12 industry indices [4][8] - Sub-industry performance varied, with hospitals (+27.1%) and medical devices (+6.8%) showing gains, while biopharmaceuticals (-2.2%) and internet medicine (-3.5%) declined [4][8] Institutional Holdings - As of September 16, 2025, domestic capital's holding ratio through Hong Kong Stock Connect remained stable at 22.1%, while foreign capital's holding ratio decreased to 38.4% [33][38] - Domestic investors have been increasing their positions in leading and innovative drug companies, while foreign investors have shown a preference for CXO companies with better cost-performance ratios [4][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with target prices and ratings indicating a generally bullish outlook on innovative drug companies [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the pharmaceutical sector is noted, with specific segments like prescription drugs at 31.4 times and biopharmaceuticals at 14.2 times [17] Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced a fast-track review process for innovative drug clinical trial applications, aiming to streamline approvals for certain categories of drugs [7] - The report discusses the latest draft of the national centralized drug procurement rules, highlighting systematic optimizations in bidding mechanisms and quality assurance requirements [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical research and development service outsourcing company, Zhaoyan New Drug, reported a decline in revenue but managed to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, indicating a complex recovery phase for the company amid ongoing challenges in the industry [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhaoyan New Drug achieved revenue of approximately 669 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 60.93 million yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [2][3]. - The company's laboratory service business reported a net profit of -97.18 million yuan, a significant decline of 537.54% compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing pricing pressures in this segment [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the net profit contribution from the laboratory service business has drastically decreased from 577 million yuan in 2022 to 50.19 million yuan in 2024, indicating a severe decline in profitability [3][6]. Business Structure and Market Position - Zhaoyan New Drug is recognized as a leader in non-clinical safety evaluation services within the CRO sector, primarily focusing on preclinical drug development [5][6]. - The company has faced challenges related to its biological assets, particularly concerning the valuation of its primate assets, which resulted in net losses of 267 million yuan and 114 million yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively [6][7]. - Despite the financial struggles, the company has benefited from investment income, which helped offset losses from its core laboratory services, indicating reliance on non-operational revenue streams for profitability [6][7]. Historical Context and Industry Trends - Zhaoyan New Drug was one of the earliest players in the CRO market, established in 1995, and has seen significant growth during the previous innovation drug boom from 2018 to 2022 [6][9]. - The peak performance of Zhaoyan New Drug occurred in 2022, with a net profit margin of 47.32%, contrasting sharply with margins of 16.48% and 3.46% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting the pressures faced by the industry [9][12]. - The current demand for pharmaceutical research and development services is significantly lower than during the previous boom, indicating a challenging environment for recovery and growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical research and development outsourcing company, Zhaoyan New Drug, reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but managed to turn a profit in net income and net profit after deducting non-recurring items, indicating a potential recovery despite ongoing challenges in its laboratory services business [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhaoyan New Drug achieved revenue of approximately 669 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.28% [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.93 million yuan and a net profit of 23.05 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items, marking a turnaround from previous losses [1]. - The laboratory services business contributed a net profit of -97.18 million yuan, a decline of 537.54% compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing price competition in this segment [3]. Business Structure and Market Position - Zhaoyan New Drug is recognized as a leader in non-clinical safety evaluation services within the CRO (Contract Research Organization) sector, primarily focusing on preclinical drug development [5]. - The company has faced challenges due to significant losses related to biological assets, particularly concerning the management of laboratory animals, but these pressures appear to be easing [5][6]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - The company experienced a peak in performance in 2022, coinciding with the end of a significant growth period in the domestic biopharmaceutical industry [9][11]. - The sales net profit margin for Zhaoyan New Drug was 47.32% in 2022, but has since dropped to 16.48% in 2023 and 3.46% in 2024, with a mere 9.11% in the first half of 2025, indicating a need for substantial improvement in profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 11.0% from the current closing price of HKD 30.62 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 (1H25) shows a continued recovery trend, with a strong order intake of 86 new contracts, marking a historical high for the first half of the year. However, there are concerns regarding the impact of changes in overseas financing and market dynamics on early-stage clinical projects, leading to a decrease in revenue from this segment [2][6]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to a range of 14-16%, up from the previous 12-15%, while maintaining a positive free cash flow outlook [6][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term growth drivers for the company remain strong, particularly through its proprietary technologies and the increasing number of projects in hand, which have grown by 10% compared to the end of 2024 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 21,312 million, with a growth forecast of 16% for 1H25 compared to the previous period. The gross profit is expected to reach RMB 9,157 million, reflecting a gross margin of 43.0% [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 5,005 million, with a net profit margin of 23.5% [5][13]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 124.64 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 74.37% [4][12]. Order and Project Insights - In 1H25, the company secured 86 new comprehensive projects, with over 70% being dual/multi-antibody and ADC projects. The report notes that the number of M-end projects has increased to 24, with expectations to complete 25 PPQ projects in 2025 [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proprietary technology in generating future revenue streams, including collaboration income and sales commissions [6][7]. Market and Regional Performance - Revenue growth in North America was 20%, while the Chinese mainland saw an 8.5% decline due to financing environment impacts. Japan and South Korea showed strong performance, indicating potential for further growth in these regions [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 3.2% from the current price of HKD 49.40 [6]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 1H25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow over 60% year-on-year and adjusted net profit (excluding interest income and expenses) expected to increase by over 67%, while net profit is anticipated to rise by over 50% [1]. - The strong growth is driven by robust supply and demand dynamics, including high downstream demand in the ADC/XDC industry, an increase in market share in the XDC CRDMO market, and efficient capacity release from new production facilities in Wuxi and Singapore [1]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth visibility for 2H25 to 2026, supported by ongoing demand for ADC exports and the ramp-up of new production lines [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec's 1H25 revenue is expected to exceed a 60% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit projected to grow over 67% and net profit over 50%, surpassing both market and company guidance [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights strong industry demand, particularly in the ADC/XDC sector, and the company's ability to capture market share in the XDC CRDMO market [1]. - The efficient release of production capacity, particularly from new facilities in Wuxi, is contributing to high utilization rates and operational efficiency [1]. Future Outlook - The company is set to announce detailed 1H25 results on August 18, and the report indicates that future earnings forecasts and target prices will be adjusted based on these results [1].

| 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 25.90 | 港元 25.00↑ | -3.5% | | | 药明生物 (2269 HK) | | | | | | 2H24 业绩复苏，RDM 三大业务端边际改善确定性较强，上调目标价 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2269 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 28.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 10.26 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 106,372.34 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 34.12 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 47.49 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 18.39 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) is Neutral [2][19]. Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in performance for the second half of 2024, with strong margin improvements across the three main business segments of RDM [6]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 25.00, reflecting a potential downside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 25.90 [1][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for WuXi Biologics are as follows: - 2023: RMB 17,034 million - 2024: RMB 18,675 million (growth of 9.6%) - 2025E: RMB 21,417 million (growth of 14.7%) - 2026E: RMB 25,299 million (growth of 18.1%) - 2027E: RMB 28,918 million (growth of 14.3%) [5][21]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,837 million - 2024: RMB 4,097 million - 2025E: RMB 5,051 million (growth of 43.7%) - 2026E: RMB 6,580 million (growth of 30.3%) - 2027E: RMB 7,788 million (growth of 18.4%) [5][21]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 12-15% in 2025, driven by existing orders and pipeline conversions [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 47.49% [4]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 28.50 and HKD 10.26, respectively [4]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the antibody/protein business has demonstrated resilience amid external fluctuations, with a total of 151 new integrated projects added in the year [6]. - The report notes that the North American market recorded a high growth rate of 32.5%, while Europe and mainland China showed low single-digit growth [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21 times the 2025 earnings and a PEG ratio of 1.1 [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite positive free cash flow, the company plans to invest and repurchase shares, which may limit dividend payouts [6].