交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 58.35 | 港元 | 91.00 | +55.9% | | | 药明合联 (2268 HK) | | | | | | | 1 年股价表现 个股评级 买入 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2268 HK 恒生指数 XDC 赛道融资/BD 开年延续较高热情，公司有望持续获益，维持买入 作为反映 CRDMO 业务需求的先行指标，全球 CXO 赛道的投融资和 BD 交易在 2026 年初延续了过去两年的极高活跃度。我们看好药明合联受益于这一行业 景气度稳步提升的关键趋势，预计综合订单数量在 2025-27 年将录得 20%以 上增长、后期/商业化订单贡献快速提升。维持 91 港元目标价、买入评级及 中国 CXO 行业首推。 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2026 年 2 月 27 日 医药行业周报 ASCO GU 大会召开在即，板块波动中持续看好低估创新标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY26E | | | FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E | | | | | | | | | ...

| 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 58.35 | 港元 | 91.00 | +55.9% | | | 药明合联 (2268 HK) | | | | | | | XDC 赛道融资/BD 开年延续较高热情，公司有望持续获益，维持买入 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 52周高位 (港元) | 85.10 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 28.85 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 73,403.72 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 8.31 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.95) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 67.30 | 作为反映 CRDMO 业务需求的先行指标，全球 CXO 赛道的投融资和 BD 交易在 2026 年初延续了过去两年的极高活跃度。我们看好药明合联受益于这一行业 景气度稳步提升的关键趋势，预计综合订单数量在 2025-27 年将录得 20%以 上增长、后期/商业化订单贡献快速提升。维持 ...

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with a high selection rate of 93%, indicating a positive outlook for innovative companies in the sector [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development (BD) transactions, suggesting a continuation of the positive trend in 2026 despite potential short-term volatility [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals and valuations when selecting stocks, particularly undervalued innovative companies that have been overlooked during market fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, outperforming the broader market [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - As of February 10, 2026, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect slightly decreased to 22.2%, while foreign holdings increased to 39.7%, indicating a shift towards more positive sentiment among foreign investors [32] - Key increases in holdings were noted in leading CXO companies benefiting from demand recovery, such as Tigermed and WuXi AppTec [37][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with notable buy ratings for AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and others, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the healthcare sector is reported at 28.4 times, with specific segments like biopharmaceuticals at 13.1 times [16] Sales Trends - The report notes a 1% year-on-year decline in China's pharmaceutical market sales for 2025, with significant variations across different sales channels [5] - Public hospitals accounted for the largest market share but experienced a 2.1% decline, while retail pharmacies saw a 2.4% increase, driven by online sales growth [5] Procurement Insights - The recent national procurement round involved 316 commonly used drugs, with a high participation rate and diverse product offerings, ensuring stable clinical supply [5] - The procurement process has been refined to enhance quality and reliability, with stricter requirements for participating companies [5]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a concentrated trend of domestic innovative drug collaborations and transactions as the year ends, with expectations for value recovery in 2026 [1][4] - The overall market performance shows a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.8% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index down 4.3% during the week [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of stock selection logic returning to fundamentals and valuations, focusing on stocks that are currently undervalued with expected fundamental improvements [4] Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview of various companies, indicating target prices and earnings per share estimates for FY25E and FY26E, along with their respective price-to-earnings ratios [3] - Notable companies with "Buy" ratings include AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, with target prices significantly above current trading prices [3] Market Trends - The report notes a slight decrease in domestic institutional holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign holdings remain stable [33] - The report identifies a trend of increasing positions in leading innovative pharmaceutical companies by domestic investors, particularly in companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Rongchang Bio [36] Investment Insights - The report mentions several significant business development (BD) transactions exceeding $1 billion, indicating a robust pipeline for innovative drugs [4][5] - It recommends focusing on specific segments such as innovative drugs and CXO companies that are expected to benefit from downstream recovery and high market demand [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" as of October 31, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the significant price reductions from the 11th batch of centralized procurement may have limited impact on the overall performance of the sector. However, catalysts in Q4 are expected to improve investor sentiment [4] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a notable price correction, but the fundamentals remain strong, with an anticipated stabilization in investment sentiment due to upcoming catalysts such as academic conferences and favorable policies [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.2% during the week of October 22-29, 2025, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 0.9%, ranking 12th among 12 industry indices [4][10] - Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with CXO up by 4.6% and biopharmaceuticals down by 2.3% [4][10] Institutional Holdings - As of October 28, 2025, the proportion of domestic institutional holdings in the pharmaceutical sector decreased slightly to 21.9%, while foreign holdings remained stable [36][39] - Domestic investors have increased their positions in medical device companies and "AI + healthcare" concepts, while foreign investors have focused on long-term potential innovative drug companies [39] Procurement Insights - The 11th batch of centralized procurement included 55 drug products, with a selection rate of 57%. The report notes that the impact on the overall revenue of selected companies is expected to be limited [8][9] - Companies such as Kelun Pharmaceutical and China National Pharmaceutical have multiple products selected, but the overall contribution to revenue is anticipated to be small [8][9] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with target prices and earnings per share estimates for FY25E and FY26E, indicating a generally positive outlook for selected companies in the innovative drug sector [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and CXO companies, highlighting specific firms such as Sanofi and WuXi AppTec as having strong short-term catalysts and undervalued growth potential [4]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of the ESMO conference, highlighting the achievements of Chinese pharmaceutical companies and suggesting to focus on catalysts such as policies, academic conferences, and business development in Q4 2025 [1][4] - The report indicates a potential market rebound due to increasing industry catalysts, including various academic conferences and favorable policies [4] - The report recommends continued attention to companies with promising clinical pipelines and their global commercialization potential [4][5] Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview of various companies, with all covered companies rated as "Buy" except for two rated as "Neutral" and one as "Sell" [3] - Notable target prices and current prices for selected companies include: - AstraZeneca: Target price 93.30, Current price 83.87 [3] - BeiGene: Target price 225.00, Current price 188.20 [3] - Innovent Biologics: Target price 48.00, Current price 36.42 [3] - I-Mab: Target price 105.00, Current price 86.10 [3] - China Biologic Products: Target price 9.10, Current price 7.43 [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 2.0% during the week of October 14-21, 2025, ranking fifth among twelve industry indices [4][7] - Sub-industry performance showed CXO leading with a 4.5% increase, followed by Internet medicine and biopharmaceuticals [4][7] Institutional Holdings - As of October 21, 2025, the proportion of domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased slightly to 22.1%, while foreign institutional holdings also saw a minor decline to 38.6% [34][38] - The report notes that both domestic and foreign investors are increasing their positions in innovative drug companies with clear pipeline values [4][38] Clinical Developments - The report highlights significant clinical trial results presented at the ESMO conference, including: - CanSino Biologics' promising data on its PD-1/VEGF inhibitor [5][6] - Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals' HER2 ADC showing significant survival benefits [5][6] - Kelun-Biotech's results indicating substantial improvements in progression-free survival [5][6] - The report suggests that these developments enhance the global competitiveness of the covered companies [5][6]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The adjustment of medical insurance and commercial insurance directories is accelerating, suggesting a favorable environment for undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing and stock selection in the current market, particularly after a broad rally in innovative drug stocks [4] - The upcoming ESMO conference in October is highlighted as a key event, with specific companies recommended for attention due to potential significant data releases [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 1.4% during the week of September 16-23, 2025, ranking 5th among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-industry performance varied, with Internet medicine showing a slight increase of 0.9%, while sectors like medical devices and hospitals saw declines of 5.2% and 8.2%, respectively [4][6] Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with notable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the pharmaceutical sector, such as 31.0x for prescription drugs and 14.1x for biopharmaceuticals [15] - The average P/E ratio across the sector is reported at 57.0, indicating a diverse valuation landscape [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 23, 2025, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect remained stable at 22.2%, while foreign holdings slightly decreased to 38.7% [34][38] - The report notes a trend of increased foreign investment in innovative drug companies, with specific companies like InnoCare and Legend Biotech seeing significant increases in holdings [38][40] Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the recent adjustments to the national basic medical insurance directory and commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with a low approval rate for submitted drugs [5] - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been announced, with new rules aimed at stabilizing clinical practices and ensuring quality [5]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - There is a divergence between domestic and foreign capital in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on timing and selecting undervalued quality stocks in the innovative drug supply chain [1][4] - The report suggests that after a broad rally in innovative drugs, the importance of timing and stock selection has significantly increased, recommending gradual positioning during market corrections [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.9% during the week of September 9-16, 2025, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.0%, ranking 12th among 12 industry indices [4][8] - Sub-industry performance varied, with hospitals (+27.1%) and medical devices (+6.8%) showing gains, while biopharmaceuticals (-2.2%) and internet medicine (-3.5%) declined [4][8] Institutional Holdings - As of September 16, 2025, domestic capital's holding ratio through Hong Kong Stock Connect remained stable at 22.1%, while foreign capital's holding ratio decreased to 38.4% [33][38] - Domestic investors have been increasing their positions in leading and innovative drug companies, while foreign investors have shown a preference for CXO companies with better cost-performance ratios [4][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with target prices and ratings indicating a generally bullish outlook on innovative drug companies [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the pharmaceutical sector is noted, with specific segments like prescription drugs at 31.4 times and biopharmaceuticals at 14.2 times [17] Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced a fast-track review process for innovative drug clinical trial applications, aiming to streamline approvals for certain categories of drugs [7] - The report discusses the latest draft of the national centralized drug procurement rules, highlighting systematic optimizations in bidding mechanisms and quality assurance requirements [6][7]