相关机构表示，现金流指标是衡量企业财务指标健康的核心指标，不仅代表盈利质量，更决定了分红可 持续性与抗风险能力。随着当前市场逐步转入进攻阶段，现金流ETF在当前市场环境的优势也逐步显 现。 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流 ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，感兴趣的投资者可持续关注。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF发起联接A（023919），国泰富时 中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF发起联接C（023920）。 注：现金流ETF完全由国泰基金管理有限公司开发，本基金与伦敦证券交易所集团公司及其附属企业之 间没有关联，也并非受其发起、背书、出售或推广。FTSE Russell是特定LSE Group公司的商标名称之 一。LSE Group概不对任何人士使用本基金或基础数据承担任何责任。 如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来 表现。市场观点随市场环境 ...

机构：东吴证券 研究员：袁理/陈孜文 投资要点 事件：2025H1 公司实现主营业务收入143.04 亿港元，同比-8%，归母净利润22.07 亿港元，同比-10%。 2025H1 建造收入占比降至13%，危废减值&汇兑亏损致业绩承压。公司运营项目积累、经营提质增 效、财务费用节约共助经营性利润增长，归母净利润下滑主要受非现金性的建造收入下降、减值增加及 汇兑亏损等影响：1）建造下滑：2025H1 公司建造收入18.44 亿港元（同比-49%，下同），占主营收入 12.9%（-10.1pct），运营收入99.43 亿港元（+5%），占主营收入69.5%（+8.9pct），财务收入25.16 亿 港元（-2%），占主营收入17.6%（+1.1pct），盈利结构进一步优化。2）减值增加：25H1 应收账款、 其他应收款及合约资产减值计提2.08 亿港元（24H1 为0.34 亿港元），25H1 商誉、物业厂房及设备减值 1.78 亿港元（24H1 无）。3）汇兑亏损：25H1 汇兑亏损4.28 亿港元，24H1 汇兑收益为2.31 亿港元。 运营指标稳健增长，供热量同增32%。分板块看，①环保能源：25H1环保能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China reported a year-on-year net profit growth of over 5% for the first half of 2025, despite stable revenue levels, leading to media headlines emphasizing their profitability. However, the decline in free cash flow raises concerns about their actual cash-generating capabilities [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The telecom operators' free cash flow has shown a downward trend over the past three years, with China Mobile reporting a free cash flow of 25.5 billion, a 62% decrease year-on-year, while China Telecom and China Unicom also experienced significant declines compared to 2023 [6][8]. - Despite the net profit growth, the decline in free cash flow indicates a weakening ability to distribute dividends or reinvest, reflecting the true financial health of these operators [9]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a peak in 5G investments from 2020 to 2023, the three operators have begun to reduce capital expenditures, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom decreasing their capital expenditures by 9%, 28%, and 15% respectively in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The reduction in capital expenditures positively impacted free cash flow for China Telecom and China Unicom, which saw slight increases in free cash flow due to this decrease [12]. Group 3: Operating Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for the three operators declined significantly, with China Mobile's operating cash flow net amount halving compared to the same period in 2023, while China Telecom and China Unicom also reported decreases of 19% and 3% respectively [14]. - The primary reasons for the decline in operating cash flow include increased payments to suppliers and a rise in accounts receivable due to slower collection from government enterprise projects [16][21]. Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - Accounts receivable for the three operators increased significantly, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reporting year-on-year increases of 25%, 26%, and 19% respectively [22]. - The rise in accounts receivable has led to a substantial increase in bad debt provisions, with China Mobile and China Telecom seeing provisions grow by 33% and 59% respectively in 2025 [28][30]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The operators need to shift focus from merely increasing revenue to ensuring cash flow generation, particularly in the government enterprise market, to avoid a cycle of "paper profits" without actual cash [36]. - A return to high-quality development is essential for the operators to maintain competitiveness and ensure that enterprise business becomes a growth engine rather than a cash drain [35][36].

证券研究报告 【策略专题】 现金流指数为何今年偏弱,往后会强吗? -自由现金流资产系列 13 策略专题 2025年08月 22日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:姚佩 邮箱:yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360522120004 证券分析师:林吴 邮箱:linhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523070007 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】居民资产负债表修复行至何处一 一资产负债表修复系列 5》 股中属于高 ROE 或是低 ROE 分组,ROE 的波动率往往越低会带来更高的收 益率,且这一现象在低ROE分组中更为显著。具体数据表现为:ROE 由高至 低的各 25%分组区间内,12-24年共 13年间,低波组年度收益率中位数高于 高波组的年数分别为 10、9、10、12年,平均每年超额分别为 2、4、5、 7pct。而市场中价值型产品如红利指数往往不考虑盈利能力,现金流指数 中,中证现金流并未对盈利能力稳定性做要求,故其煤炭行业权重直到 25Q1 也仍然为全行业第一;国证现金流则在选样过程中"别除近 12个李度 ROE 稳定性排名后10%的证券",但这一要求并不全面,仅仅只针对盈利能 ...

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 现金流指数为何今年偏弱，往后会强吗？ ——自由现金流资产系列 13 现金流相对红利：大盘风格显著，小盘占优行情下相对收益承压。由于基于 自由现金流规模被赋予的权重较红利指数的股息率加权更大，故现金流指数 大盘风格显著更强。 宏观经济不及预期；宏观及行业政策、监管环境发生重大变化，使得行业发 展逻辑根本性改变；历史经验不代表未来。 策略研究 策略专题 2025 年 08 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：林昊 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070007 相关研究报告 图表目录 | 图表 | 1 煤炭&石化 23、24 年估值驱动行情，25Q1 估值盈利双双承压 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 煤炭盈利下滑带动现金流规模收缩持续两年有余 | 4 | | 图表 | 3 石油石化盈利规模小幅收缩 | 4 | | 图表 | 4 盈利能力的低波特征同样能带来收益增强 | 5 | | 图表 | 5 华创自由现金流组合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 11.0% from the current closing price of HKD 30.62 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 (1H25) shows a continued recovery trend, with a strong order intake of 86 new contracts, marking a historical high for the first half of the year. However, there are concerns regarding the impact of changes in overseas financing and market dynamics on early-stage clinical projects, leading to a decrease in revenue from this segment [2][6]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to a range of 14-16%, up from the previous 12-15%, while maintaining a positive free cash flow outlook [6][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term growth drivers for the company remain strong, particularly through its proprietary technologies and the increasing number of projects in hand, which have grown by 10% compared to the end of 2024 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 21,312 million, with a growth forecast of 16% for 1H25 compared to the previous period. The gross profit is expected to reach RMB 9,157 million, reflecting a gross margin of 43.0% [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 5,005 million, with a net profit margin of 23.5% [5][13]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 124.64 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 74.37% [4][12]. Order and Project Insights - In 1H25, the company secured 86 new comprehensive projects, with over 70% being dual/multi-antibody and ADC projects. The report notes that the number of M-end projects has increased to 24, with expectations to complete 25 PPQ projects in 2025 [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proprietary technology in generating future revenue streams, including collaboration income and sales commissions [6][7]. Market and Regional Performance - Revenue growth in North America was 20%, while the Chinese mainland saw an 8.5% decline due to financing environment impacts. Japan and South Korea showed strong performance, indicating potential for further growth in these regions [6][7].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on August 20, with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rising over 1.2%, driven by stocks like Mould Technology and SAIC Motor hitting the daily limit [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index upward, with trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan during the day, indicating significant investor interest [1] - Analysts believe the current A-share rally is supported by diverse funding sources, shifting from "institutional clustering" to a "multi-dimensional coexistence" model, suggesting a maturing market ecosystem [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, effectively mitigating single-industry volatility risks [2] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market [2]

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.50% as of August 20, 2025, with leading stocks including Yuntianhua, Mould Technology, Mulinsen, Jiejia Weichuang, and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has risen by 0.55%, with a latest price of 1.09 yuan, and has seen a turnover rate of 1.76% with a transaction volume of 68.6096 million yuan [1] - Over the past week, the Free Cash Flow ETF has averaged a daily transaction volume of 343 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Fund Performance - As of August 19, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a net value increase of 8.74% over the past six months [2] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception is 3.62%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being three months and a maximum increase of 9.05% [2] - The ETF has a monthly profit percentage of 80.00% and a historical six-month holding profit probability of 100.00% [2] Fund Metrics - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [2] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.040%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] - The ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which reflects the price changes of listed companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [2] Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.66% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [2][4] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: SAIC Motor (10.18%), China National Offshore Oil (9.81%), Midea Group (9.28%), and Gree Electric (7.56%) [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming industry has transitioned from rapid growth to a stable phase, with capacity regulation becoming a new norm, positively impacting the industry. The company is entering a new development stage, focusing on efficiency, cost reduction, and improving free cash flow [4][20]. - Future capital expenditures for the company are expected to decrease significantly, with domestic capacity expansion slowing down, leading to healthier high-quality development in domestic operations. The company is also poised for growth in overseas markets [4][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry New Normal - The Chinese pig farming industry has entered a new normal characterized by reduced price volatility and an elevated profit center. The proportion of large-scale farming entities has increased significantly, with those producing over 500 pigs annually now accounting for 70% of total output. This shift has led to more stable production capacities and tighter financing conditions, limiting large-scale expansions [8][27][36]. - The industry is now subject to long-term capacity regulation, which is expected to stabilize production and enhance profitability for quality enterprises [8][27]. Company’s New Stage - The company has entered a new development phase, with capital expenditures projected to decline from a peak of 461 billion yuan in 2020 to 124 billion yuan by 2024, and further down to 50 billion yuan thereafter. Free cash flow is expected to improve significantly, reaching 179 billion yuan in 2024 [9][22]. - The company maintains a cost advantage, with a projected complete cost of 12.1 yuan/kg by June 2025, the lowest among listed companies. This cost efficiency, combined with stable profit growth, positions the company favorably for future cash flow generation [9][22]. Overseas Expansion - The company is well-positioned to compete globally, with plans to expand its operations in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam, where there is significant growth potential. The company aims to establish a substantial presence in the Vietnamese market by 2030, targeting 450,000 breeding sows and 10 million market pigs [10][39]. - The global distribution of pig production indicates that while China leads with approximately 703 million pigs, there remains considerable room for growth in countries like Vietnam, where the scale of production is still developing [10][39].

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing market attention on free cash flow strategy products, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, with Jin Ying Fund launching the Jin Ying CSI All Share Cash Flow Index Fund on August 18 to provide investors with a tool for investing in high-quality cash flow companies [1] - Warren Buffett refers to free cash flow as "the real gold and silver of value investing," emphasizing that it better reflects a company's sustainable cash generation ability compared to accounting profits. Free cash flow serves as the basis for dividend distribution and is considered "unrealized dividends," enabling companies to reward investors and supporting high dividend yields [1] - The CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index selects 100 "cash cow" companies from non-financial and real estate sectors based on liquidity, industry, and profit quality, offering investors superior equity asset investment choices. Since the base date of December 31, 2013, the CSI Cash Flow Total Return Index has increased by 659.18%, with an annualized return of 19.64%, demonstrating strong medium to long-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - The Jin Ying CSI All Share Cash Flow Index Fund uses a performance benchmark of 95% of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index return plus 5% of the after-tax bank demand deposit rate, employing an index investment strategy to closely track the underlying index while minimizing tracking deviation and error [2] - The fund is managed by Sun Qianqian, Deputy General Manager of the Absolute Return Investment Department at Jin Ying Fund, who has 14 years of experience in the securities industry and 6 years in public fund management. Her current managed products focus on high dividend safety and enhance returns through cash flow-based quantitative indicators in stock selection [2]