Roger, settle this for us. Was it hawkish. Was it doubbish.The fact that they're going to buy bonds on the short end, does that have the same impact uh as it just a deeper cut. No, I I think they're trying to avoid sending the message that the buying bonds on the short end had anything to do with monetary policy. Um was it hawkish. Was it dovish.I'd have to say it was uh distinctly undecided. You know, as you point out, there were three descents. One in favor of more uh reductions, two in favor of holding.a ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights concerns regarding inflation rates, suggesting that the perceived inflation excess is largely a statistical mirage rather than a reflection of real supply-demand imbalances in the economy [1][5]. Inflation Analysis - Current inflation is reported to be around 3%, but the argument is made that this figure does not accurately represent the underlying economic conditions [1]. - Market rents have been stable at approximately 1% for a couple of years, indicating that the measured inflation is artificially high due to the lag in statistical convergence [2][3]. - The supply-demand imbalance that existed from 2020 to 2023 should not dictate current monetary policy, as it does not reflect the present economic landscape [3]. Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy operates with significant lags, necessitating that decisions be based on forecasts rather than past data [6][7]. - The lack of recent data does not invalidate existing forecasts; rather, it provides opportunities to reassess them [8]. - Recent data trends indicate weaker inflation and higher unemployment than previously expected, suggesting a potential shift towards a more dovish monetary stance [9]. Data Dependence vs. Forecast Dependence - There is a debate on the relevance of meeting schedules in relation to data availability, with a suggestion that being excessively data-dependent may lead to backward-looking policies [12][13]. - The emphasis should be on forecast dependence to ensure that monetary policy aligns with future economic conditions rather than past data [13]. Interest Rate Decisions - There is a willingness to support a 25 basis point cut if it aligns with the broader economic needs, emphasizing the importance of not causing harm to the economy for the sake of maintaining a certain policy stance [14][15].

Economic Outlook - Consumer prices rose in line with expectations in August, indicating no significant surprises for the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with a 50 basis point cut being off the table [2][3] - There are tariff effects present in the consumer basket, but they are not substantial enough to alter the Fed's plans [3][5] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims have increased, and continuing claims are trending higher, indicating a weakening labor market [9][10] - The duration of unemployment is at its highest in four to five years, suggesting challenges in job recovery [10] - Revisions to last year's job growth data indicate that the labor market was not as strong as previously thought [12][13] Inflation and Consumer Impact - Inflation is expected to worsen before improving, with businesses struggling to pass on cost increases to consumers [6][7] - Lower-end consumers are particularly unable to absorb price increases, leading businesses to explore cost-cutting measures [7][8] - Profit margins are likely to come under pressure, which could lead to lower market multiples and affect investor returns [22][24] Market Sentiment - The current economic data suggests a potential for slower growth rather than a hard landing [20] - Market valuations may be high relative to fundamentals, indicating that expectations for rapid growth may not be sustainable [21][22] - There is concern that a weakening jobs market combined with compressing profit margins could negatively impact the stock market [22][24]

What's your take on why long-term interest rates haven't gone lower. >> I think there's probably two things here that stick out to me. One is well, inflation still seems like it's there, right.We haven't gotten things back to 2%. And so there's just a risk of the Fed being caught off sides here if the Fed starts to cut more aggressively at a time when inflation might pick up. You can say, well, this time inflation's transitory.But we're dealing with potentially big macro adjustments. They might be costly. A ...