Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Household sector over-indebtedness is a critical issue in Thailand, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 95.5 percent in 2021Q1 and remaining around 90 percent thereafter, indicating significant risks to financial stability and economic growth [10][11] - The report presents a comprehensive, multi-pronged approach to household deleveraging in Thailand, drawing on international case studies from Brazil, Hungary, Korea, and Malaysia to inform policy recommendations [4][53] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - The household debt in Thailand has been historically high, peaking at 85.9 percent of GDP in 2015 and increasing to 95.5 percent during the pandemic, with a significant share of unsecured loans [10][11] B. Thailand - The Thai government has implemented various measures to support household debt deleveraging, including broad-based assistance during the pandemic and debt restructuring programs [19][21] - As of 2024Q3, non-performing loan (NPL) ratios increased to 3.28 percent, with credit card loans having the highest NPL ratio at 4.61 percent [17][18] C. Brazil - Brazil's household debt surged during the pandemic, with the Debt Service-To-Income (DSTI) ratio peaking at 28 percent in March 2023, and over 40 percent of consumers defaulting on some form of debt [24][25] - The "Desenrola Brasil" program helped over 15 million people renegotiate R$52 billion in overdue debt, reducing the household DSTI ratio to 26.0 percent by June 2024 [28] D. Malaysia - Malaysia's household debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 66 percent in 2008 to 89 percent in 2015, prompting the central bank to implement measures to curb excessive indebtedness [29][30] - The introduction of tiered pricing on credit card interest rates and stricter credit card requirements helped moderate the growth of household debt [32][34] E. Korea - Korea experienced a credit card boom post-Asian financial crisis, leading to a peak in household debt at 62.5 percent of GDP by 2002, followed by significant policy measures to address the crisis [35][38] - The credit card delinquency ratio dropped to 2.6 percent in 2006 from above 10 percent in 2002-2003 due to effective debt restructuring programs [39] F. Hungary - Hungary's household debt peaked at 39.4 percent of GDP in 2010, with significant risks arising from foreign currency loans, leading to extensive state intervention in the banking sector [40][41] - The conversion of foreign currency loans into local currency and the introduction of debt cap regulations helped stabilize the financial situation [43][44] G. Other International Practices - Various international practices for debt rehabilitation and forgiveness are discussed, including the Individual Voluntary Arrangements in Hong Kong and the Personal Insolvency Act in Ireland [46][47] H. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach to household deleveraging is necessary, combining ex-post measures to address existing debt and ex-ante policies to prevent new debt accumulation [53][54] - Emphasis on financial literacy, responsible lending practices, and regulatory measures is crucial to mitigate over-indebtedness risks [57][58]