March 25, 2026 04:17 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy Avoid the USD Bull Trap EUR/USD could fall to 1.13 amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty, but rate differential compression in the Defense Regime and a rebound in USD-negative risk premium from increased FX hedging keep the medium-term USD-bearish thesis intact – near-term volatility notwithstanding. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. M Global Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ David S. Adams, CFA Strategist David.S.Adams@morganstanl ...

A shift to the Defense Regime sees the DXY trading sideways, though timing such a pivot remains difficult to estimate, and elevated uncertainty and volatility keeps us neutral. EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral A neutral stance on EUR/USD remains sensible in our view, but we note that signals from options market suggest investors may expect more EUR/USD weakness than is ultimately delivered. JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral G10 FX Strategy | Global Our Latest Views Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy view ...