J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 19 December 2025 FX Markets Weekly Thoughts from the road Outlook: We close the publishing cycle for the year by discussing the most interesting questions from our year-ahead outlook discussions. There was no pushback to the bearish dollar view, but lots of introspection on capital inflows into the US, the dollar smile, Fed independence concerns and US fiscal pre-midterms. FX carry is well subscribed to and discussions was on vol generators and risk hedges instead. DM ...

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December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America December FOMC Reaction: Well Positioned to Wait and See How the Economy Evolves The Fed reduced the funds rate by 25bp but signaled that future adjustments will be more data dependent, as we expected. We continue to expect further cuts in January and April, but if the labor market stabilizes, then future cuts may not come until inflation decelerates. Key expectations | M December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT December FOMC Reaction: | Chief US E ...

December 8, 2025 01:07 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Fed in Focus: What's Next for Policy and Macro Markets? December 8, 2025 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Michael Gapen – Chief US Economist Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist Matthew Hornbach – Global Head of Macro Strategy | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC James Lord – Global Head of FX/EM Strategy | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Morgan Stanley does ...

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Summary of Global FX Outlook 2026 Company and Industry - **Company**: J.P. Morgan - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Key Points and Arguments 1. FX Outlook for 2026 - The outlook is bearish on the dollar in the first half of 2026 due to Fed asymmetries, twin deficits, and global recovery, but weakness is constrained by US resiliency [6][37][38] - Expected currency levels include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6] 2. Drivers of FX Returns in 2025 - DM FX returns were influenced by external and fiscal balances, while global FX/EM returns were primarily driven by carry [5][8] - Liberation Day marked a significant weakening of the dollar, leading to a pro-risk environment characterized by strong performance in global/EM carry trades [5][10] 3. Lessons from 2025 - The dollar's strength was short-lived, with key risks materializing earlier than expected, leading to a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment [4][10] - Fiscal differentiation played a crucial role, with the Euro's rise linked to positive German fiscal developments [14] 4. Macro Landscape for 2026 - The macro environment is characterized by synchronized central bank inactivity, ongoing fiscal policy focus, and the impact of AI adoption [6][12] - The US policy mix remains a source of FX risk, with a focus on fiscal policy rather than tariffs [6][12] 5. AI and Market Dynamics - AI is expected to influence markets through financial and macro channels, potentially supporting US growth but also reviving de-dollarization discussions [29] - The macro effects of AI are still developing, with job displacement not yet materializing significantly in labor market data [29] 6. Fiscal Policy and Tariff Volatility - Fiscal policy surprises are anticipated, particularly in the US, with potential for stimulus surprises due to mid-term elections [28] - Tariff volatility is expected to decrease in 2026, although some tactical volatility may arise from IEEPA rulings [60][67] 7. Dollar's Carry Appeal - The dollar's nominal carry appeal remains high despite Fed easing, influencing asset owners' FX hedging decisions [50] - The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by various macro scenarios, including potential Fed hikes in 2027 [49][50] 8. Risks and Scenarios for the Dollar - The dollar could weaken if US growth moderates sharply or if the Fed's reaction function turns dovish amid political pressures [48][39] - Conversely, a stronger US growth scenario could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar [48][58] 9. Conclusion on FX Trends - The FX landscape heading into 2026 is marked by lower dispersion across style factors, indicating less conviction on differentiating currency returns [30] - High-yielding currencies are expected to perform better in a procyclical growth environment, while low-yielders may lag [6][37] Other Important Content - The relationship between equities and FX is complex, with significant implications for the AI equity-USD link in the upcoming year [15] - The evolving dollar smile indicates that US-RoW relative cyclical dynamics are becoming more influential on the dollar's performance [15]

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Global Economics & Markets Outlook 2026-2027 For a summary of our key ideas & top charts, see 'The Skinny '26-'27' Fixed Income: Fed doesn't control the long end. US leads meagre 3-5% returns Tariff inflation over the coming 6m should limit the decline in front end, but with higher equity volatility the curve can go through a short spell of bull flattening, with the 10y dropping to a low of 3.50% before stronger activity and fiscal concerns take it back to 4%. Unlike previous easing cycles in this century, ...