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The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.24%.  The dollar is moving lower today after the Dec Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions unexpectedly contracted, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Also, the strength in stocks today has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar.  The dollar dropped to its low after Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Fed's policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive on the economy. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financi ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.20%.  The dollar is moving higher due to short covering ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today.  The dollar gained ground today after the Oct JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  The dollar's near-term upside is limited amid expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. President Trump said last that he will announce his sele ...

Global Markets Strategy November 24th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{B01v-d4joWPbpSPNcwGh7enRDcx_XYd872O4Uor3Vcsp4l33-sDPjK3f0Kx6YvaA0ymmNbAAwvGb8H0v}]} Overall summary US Rates Recent Fed speak has turned more cautious on further easing, and following the Septemb ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2026 Year-Ahead Outlook Industry Overview - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment and market dynamics as they relate to various asset classes, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, equities, and commodities [5][7][33]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Markets are expected to face a multi-modal macro risk distribution, with a base-case scenario suggesting a shift from a central mode to a right-side distribution indicating improving growth expectations but with increased overheating risks [5][7]. - The left-side tail risk, representing recession, is acknowledged but considered less likely compared to the overheating scenario [5][7][26]. Treasury Yields - Front-end Treasury yields are anticipated to remain in a bullish range, while the belly and long end of the curve may face bearish pressure due to risk-on trends and widening inflation breakevens [5][33]. - The 2-year note is highlighted as a key indicator for market expectations, currently positioned near critical levels around 3.50% [8][12][35]. Equities - Large-cap U.S. stocks are expected to lead a bullish trend into the first half of 2026, with higher volatility and potential drawdowns anticipated [5][13]. - Chinese equity indexes, such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, are noted for their bullish patterns, suggesting potential for reaching 2021 cycle highs [15][17]. Commodities - Base metals are expected to catch up to the strong performance of precious metals, with a longer-term bullish trend anticipated [5][21]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, contrasting with the bullish outlook for base metals [5][21]. Currency Outlook - A stronger U.S. dollar is anticipated in early 2026, with the potential for simultaneous strength in the AUD/USD pair, which is historically an outlier [5][16]. Inflation and TIPS Breakevens - The report suggests that bullish trends in base metals could lead to upward pressure on 10-year TIPS breakevens, which are expected to widen towards the 240-250 basis points range [20][66]. - A gradual rally in front-end yields is expected, with TIPS breakevens potentially widening if inflation pressures increase [20][66]. Risk Scenarios - The report outlines a left-side tail risk scenario where recession could lead to predictable market trends, but this is viewed as a lower probability outcome [26][68]. - A more aggressive bullish scenario for the 2-year note could indicate a recession outcome, leading to a significant break in consumption and labor data [26][40]. Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key levels, trends, and patterns in various markets to react to potential regime changes [7][12]. - The technical setup for the 2-year note suggests a potential target near 1.75% if bearish scenarios materialize [40][46]. - The report also discusses the potential for a steepening of the yield curve, particularly in the 2s/5s and 2s/10s curves, as markets navigate through 2026 [54][60]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected market conditions and investment strategies for 2026, highlighting both opportunities and risks across various asset classes.

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.06%, supported by weakness in the yen and limited gains due to dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating for a December rate cut [1][2] - Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Euro and German Economic Indicators - EUR/USD is up by +0.08%, driven by improved prospects for peace in Ukraine, although gains are limited by an unexpected decline in German business confidence [4][5] - The German Nov IFO business climate fell -0.4 to 88.1, below expectations of an increase to 88.5, with swaps pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 meeting [5] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Economic Concerns - USD/JPY is up by +0.38%, with the yen under pressure due to concerns about Japan's debt burden and a recently approved ¥17.7 trillion ($112 billion) stimulus package [6] - The market is discounting a 23% chance of a BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on December 19 [7] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices have recovered slightly, boosted by Waller's dovish comments, which increased demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset [8] - Underlying demand for precious metals is supported by geopolitical risks, US tariffs, central bank buying, and political pressure on the Fed's independence [8]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive market analysis focusing on the Euro against the US Dollar, as well as the US Dollar Index Futures and the US Dollar Index RT [1] Group 1: Euro vs US Dollar - The Euro has shown fluctuations against the US Dollar, indicating potential trading opportunities for investors [1] - Recent economic data from the Eurozone suggests a mixed outlook, impacting the Euro's performance [1] Group 2: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has experienced significant movements, reflecting changes in market sentiment and economic indicators [1] - Futures trading on the US Dollar Index indicates increased volatility, which could present both risks and opportunities for traders [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, supported by hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who favors keeping interest rates steady [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to signs of a potential resolution to the US government shutdown, with the Senate passing a temporary continuing resolution [2] - The markets are pricing in a 64% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Commentary - The EUR/USD rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, driven by hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who stated that interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place [4] - Central bank divergence is supportive of the euro, as the ECB is seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates several more times by the end of 2026 [4] - Schnabel indicated that there is positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and inflation risks are slightly tilted to the upside, with swaps pricing in a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) reached a 2.75-month high, finishing up by +0.29% due to higher T-note yields and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding interest rates [1] - The markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with an overall expected rate cut of 82 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - Easing US-Chinese trade tensions are seen as supportive for economic growth, following an agreement between President Trump and President Xi Jinping to extend a tariff truce and reduce trade barriers [1] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Performance - The euro fell to a 2-week low, down by -0.32%, influenced by the dollar's strength, but recovered after the ECB maintained interest rates and positive economic data emerged [4] - Eurozone Q3 GDP increased by +0.2% quarter-on-quarter and +1.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while the economic sentiment indicator rose to a 2.5-year high of 96.8 [5] - German October CPI rose by +0.3% month-on-month and +2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.04% after reaching a 1-week high, influenced by a potential US export restriction to China and the ongoing US government shutdown [1] - The British pound weakened, leading to a decline in GBP/USD to a 1-week low, which may prompt the Bank of England to consider interest rate cuts [2] - The markets are anticipating a 97% probability of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [3] Group 2 - The euro (EUR/USD) recovered from a 1-week low, finishing up by +0.09%, supported by short covering and hawkish comments from ECB Vice President Guindos [3] - Guindos stated that the current ECB interest-rate level is adequate, with balanced risks to consumer-price growth, and swaps indicate a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the ECB's October 30 meeting [4] - The USD/JPY fell by -0.01%, with Japanese trade data showing increased exports and imports, although concerns about the new Prime Minister's monetary policy stance limit yen gains [5]