September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy The USD Bear Regime Necessities Forget about USD strength, your worries, and your strife. The Fed's reaction function shift suggests a sustained period of the USD bear regime which means a large but increasingly broad USD sell-off. We expand our USD 'sell list' to beyond the DXY majors to include AUD and CAD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT | | Global Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | G10 FX Strategy | Morg ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down -0.02%.  The dollar gave up modest gains today and is slightly lower following dovish comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who stated that policymakers are in danger of falling behind the curve and need to act decisively to lower interest rates as the labor market weakens.  Today’s weaker-than-expected report on Sep S&P manufacturing PMI also weighed on the dollar.  The dollar initially moved higher today after the US Q2 current account deficit came in smaller ...

Currency Market - The euro rose by +0.03% after hawkish comments from ECB officials, indicating a potential end to the rate-cut cycle, contrasting with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar index increased by +0.04% due to higher T-note yields, but fell back after a decline in consumer sentiment [5] - USD/JPY rose by +0.22% as political uncertainty in Japan and a commitment from US and Japanese officials to let markets determine currency rates reduced safe-haven demand for the yen [7][9] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations remained at +4.8%, while 5-10 year expectations rose unexpectedly to +3.9% [3] - The consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, indicating weaker consumer confidence than expected [3] Precious Metals - December gold closed up +0.35%, and silver rose +1.62%, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by central bank purchases, with China's PBOC increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [11] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Thursday rose by +0.37%. The euro moved higher on Thursday after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast. The euro added to its gains on hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said the ECB now sees growth risks in the Eurozone as more balanced and the disinflationary process is over, signaling the ECB is done cutting interest rates.The markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut and a 10% chance of a 50 bp ...

RT Starknet 🐺🐱 (@Starknet)TradFi is onchain.EUR/USDGoldS&P 500OilAll tradable on Starknet right now, straight from your favorite Starknet or EVM wallet.Wild, isn’t it? https://t.co/8ZTQOpgIrM ...

Onchain TradFi - Traditional Finance assets are now available onchain [1] - EUR/USD, Gold, S&P 500, and Oil are tradable on Starknet [1] - These assets can be accessed directly from Starknet or EVM wallets [1]

RT Brother Lyskey 🐺🐱 (@Starknet_OG)i think you're all not bullish enough on this launchfirst, Extended is unlocking a use case Starknet still doesn't have: perp tradingand not just a simple GMX fork or some random shit, no, a next-gen Perp DEX that's actually very efficient.- ~60 trading pairs- 7 TradFi markets: gold, silver, oil, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/JPY- up to 100x leverage- vault yielding 26% in USDC 🤯 (+ you're stacking Extended points btw)in the future, users will be able to put any kind o ...

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting and Economic Outlook Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve and Economic Policy**: The July FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance regarding interest rates and inflation management, emphasizing the importance of the unemployment rate as a key indicator of economic health. Core Insights and Arguments - **Hawkish Tone of FOMC**: The July FOMC meeting raised the bar for potential rate cuts later in the year, with Chair Powell highlighting persistent inflation risks and the unemployment rate as a more accurate measure of maximum employment [6][8][37]. - **Tariff-Induced Inflation**: Powell acknowledged initial evidence of inflation due to tariffs, but noted uncertainty regarding the pace of tariff pass-through to consumer prices, indicating that the Fed remains data-dependent [6][18][22]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Powell stated that the Fed could still meet its maximum employment mandate despite slow payroll growth, as long as the unemployment rate remains low. This suggests a focus on the unemployment rate rather than payroll growth as a key metric [6][24][30][32]. - **Inflation Expectations**: The Fed's inflation target remains above 2%, with core PCE prices rising by 2.7% over the past year. The Fed expects inflation to remain firm in the coming months, with potential upward revisions to inflation forecasts [18][23][37]. - **Economic Growth Assessment**: The FOMC downgraded its growth assessment, indicating that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, which could imply a dovish tilt in future policy decisions [10][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Dissenting Opinions**: The presence of dissenting opinions from Governors Bowman and Waller allowed Powell to adopt a more hawkish tone, focusing on the consensus view rather than reflecting a range of opinions [16][38]. - **Market Reactions and Predictions**: The market-implied probability of rate cuts has been influenced by upcoming employment and inflation data, with expectations that the Fed will remain on hold in 2025 unless significant economic changes occur [39][41][62]. - **Trade Recommendations**: Analysts suggest various trading strategies, including maintaining long positions in specific Treasury securities and monitoring the USD outlook, which is expected to decline unless labor market data surprises positively [66][62]. Conclusion - The FOMC's current stance reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on inflation management and labor market stability. The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the Fed's future actions regarding interest rates and overall economic strategy.

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - **Company**: Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bearish Outlook on USD**: The bearish case for the USD remains strong due to low carry-to-volatility ratios and limited upside from US rates, alongside potential political and macroeconomic risks [8][9][10] 2. **Comparison with Other Currencies**: The USD's carry-to-volatility ratio is unattractive compared to alternatives like GBP/CHF, making it a poor choice for carry-focused strategies [8][12] 3. **Market Pricing Adjustments**: Significant shifts in market pricing occurred after the July FOMC meeting, limiting further upside from US rate expectations [8][9] 4. **Asymmetric Downside Risks**: Policy and macroeconomic risks create asymmetric downside risks for the USD, with potential for a selloff even without a significant rise in US unemployment [8][21] 5. **Investor Sentiment**: There is little reason for investors to buy the USD, as common justifications for long positions are deemed insufficient [10][11] 6. **Fed Rate Expectations**: Economists expect the Fed to cut rates below 3% in 2026, which could further weaken the USD [9][10] 7. **Risk Skew**: The balance of risks around the USD is tilted negatively, with a higher likelihood of a downward move rather than an upward one [19][20] 8. **Trade Recommendations**: Suggested trades include maintaining long positions in EUR/USD and GBP/CHF while shorting USD/JPY, with specific entry levels and targets provided [25][27] Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Activity Monitoring**: The company emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic activity data alongside labor market data, as a decline in activity could lead to USD selling despite stable unemployment rates [23][24] 2. **Long-Term Narrative**: For medium-term investors, the narrative towards a weaker USD remains strong, while near-term investors may find the negative carry associated with USD trades unappealing [25] 3. **Valuation Methodology**: The report includes a detailed valuation methodology and risks associated with the recommended trades, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying factors influencing currency movements [26] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Morgan Stanley's current outlook on the USD and related currency strategies.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that market movements are driven by investor interpretation and expectations rather than just news events [1][2] - The foreign exchange and gold markets face three main challenges: information overload, missing signals behind data, and emotional traps leading to poor trading decisions [2] - The UNFX analysis team focuses on three key areas: policy interpretation, technical validation, and tracking capital flows to identify investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - A recent case study highlighted that when the Eurozone CPI unexpectedly declined, the team did not simply view it as negative for the Euro; instead, they conducted a comprehensive analysis leading to a bullish EUR/USD strategy [2] - The essence of investment profitability lies in the ability to penetrate superficial information and capture the underlying truths of the market [3]