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If the AI Bubble Bursts, Here Are Some Defensive ETFs to Consider
ZACKSยท 2025-10-09 16:00
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with major indices reaching new highs, primarily driven by the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and tech stocks [1] - Analysts and economists express concerns that this rally may be a speculative bubble, indicating a potential market correction in the near future [3][4] Defensive Sector ETFs - Investors may shift their focus towards Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), particularly defensive sector ETFs, which have historically provided protection against losses during economic downturns [2] - Defensive sector ETFs are seen as a safe harbor during periods of market turbulence, with sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare being favored for their stability [7] Consumer Staples ETFs - Consumer staples ETFs offer exposure to essential goods companies, which are less sensitive to economic cycles [8] - Notable consumer staples ETFs include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC), and iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF (KXI) [8] - XLP is highlighted as the cheapest option, with fees of 8 basis points and assets under management (AUM) of $15.7 million [9] Utility ETFs - Utility ETFs are characterized by steady demand and relative protection from trade and policy disruptions [10] - Key utility ETFs to consider include Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU), and Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) [10] - XLU is noted as the most cost-effective option, charging 8 basis points in fees and having AUM of $21.9 million [11] Healthcare ETFs - The healthcare sector is resilient due to the ongoing demand for medical services and innovations [12] - Prominent healthcare ETFs include iShares Global Healthcare ETF (IXJ), Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT), and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) [12] - XLV is identified as the cheapest option, with fees of 8 basis points and AUM of $36.1 million [12] Market Valuation Concerns - The Shiller P/E ratio is currently at 46.2%, significantly above the 20-year average of 27.2, indicating that the market may be overvalued and future returns could be limited [5] - The concentration of investments in a few tech giants raises concerns about fragility in the market, as small earnings setbacks could lead to sharp declines [6]