Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

Federal Reserve Policy & Dissent - Two Fed members dissented on the recent rate cut decision: Governor Myron favored a 05% cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmidt preferred no change [1] - Schmidt dissented because he didn't see policy as restrictive and was concerned about inflation exceeding the Fed's 2% target [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan, a non-voting member, shared a hawkish view, suggesting it would be difficult to support another rate cut in December unless inflation falls faster or the labor market cools more than forecast [2][4] - The comments reveal resistance within the Fed regarding rate cuts, prompting Powell to caution that a December cut is not guaranteed [5] Economic Indicators & Market Conditions - Schmidt believes the labor market is imbalanced and the economy shows momentum, with inflation spreading across goods and services [3] - He noted easy financial market conditions, including record high equities and narrow bond spreads [3] - Logan believes inflation is taking too long to return to the 2% target, and stock market gains are fueling wealthier household demand [4][5] - The economy accelerated through the summer, according to Schmidt [4] Future Policy Outlook & Data Dependence - The market still anticipates a December rate cut with a 68% probability, despite the Fed's divided stance [7] - The focus is shifting to determining the Fed's default position: whether the economy must prove the need for a cut, or prove that a cut is not needed [10] - Future policy decisions will likely depend on jobs data, including alternative jobless claims reports and weekly ADP data [11][12]

Look, it is the first meeting of minds since, well, first the Iran Israel war, but then also that Opec+ decision over the weekend to bring back extra barrels to the market. And the feeling is that opec+ have changed their strategy over the last couple of months. Why do you think that is the case. Why do you think they decided to accelerate the pullback.All right. Great to be with you, Jomana. You know, I don't think they've changed their strategy. I think they've doubled down on their strategy.It's clear go ...