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摩根士丹利:中国原材料_ 需求追踪
摩根· 2025-05-14 03:09
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [6]. Core Insights - More steel mills have received production control notices, indicating tighter supply conditions in the steel market [9]. - Cement and long steel products consumption were affected by holidays and rainy weather, leading to fluctuations in demand [9]. - Planned production in the lithium battery supply chain has seen a mild increase in May, reflecting ongoing investment in this sector [9]. - Total investment in projects that started construction in April was approximately Rmb 3.2 trillion, representing a decrease of 8% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year, while the year-to-date figure is up 16% year-over-year [9]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Jiangsu and Shaanxi provinces have been ordered to reduce their annual crude steel production by 6 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively [2]. - Daily output of crude steel from key enterprises was reported at 2.202 million tons at the end of April, showing a decrease of 1.2% compared to mid-April but a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year [2]. Market Activity - PV retail sales reached 1.755 million units in April, marking a year-over-year increase of 14.5% but a month-over-month decline of 9.4% [3]. - NEV sales totaled 905,000 units in April, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 33.9% but a month-over-month decrease of 8.7% [3]. - Excavator sales in April were estimated at around 22,000 units, up 17% year-over-year [3]. Building Materials - Weekly cement shipments in May were reported at 175.3 billion Rmb, with North China showing a 51% share, down 3.3 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The investment in new projects started in April was Rmb 3.2 trillion, down 8% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year [4]. Consumption Trends - Weekly steel apparent consumption was reported at 21.8 million tons year-to-date, with long products down 23% and flat products down 6% compared to the previous year [4]. - Glass inventory increased by 3% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year, indicating stable demand in the glass sector [4].