We're heading into a gauntlet of tech earnings and a Fed decision and the big question is whether this rally is built on solid ground or just holding its breath. Vince Luso is president and CEO and portfolio manager at Cloud Capital. He joins us now.Vince, thanks so much for being here. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, set the stage for us here in a week with so much noise.Do you just kind of sit on your hands and wait it out or is this where the real money is made. Yeah, I wish we could wait it out sometime ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis covers long-term challenges and opportunities in the investment landscape, particularly focusing on expected returns across various asset classes and the implications of demographic changes, AI, governance, climate change, and globalization on market dynamics [6][7][19][31]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Expected Returns**: - US Aggregate Bond Index is expected to yield 4.6% per annum over the next decade, while the S&P 500 is projected at 3.5% per annum [7][19]. - The forecast for US High Grade Corporate bonds is 4.8% per annum, and for Euro Aggregate Bond Index, it is 3.4% per annum [7][19]. 2. **Market Conditions**: - Current markets are considered expensive, leading to low long-term returns. Equity and credit returns are expected to be similar, with a depreciation of the USD projected at -1.4% per annum against the average G10 currencies [7][19]. - Demographic trends indicate an aging population, falling fertility rates, and a shrinking working-age population, which are expected to raise bond yields and lower long-term equity returns [54][64]. 3. **Impact of AI**: - AI is anticipated to provide a moderate productivity boost, with long-term productivity growth supported by 0.5-1.0% per annum. However, this may not be sufficient to counteract the negative effects of working-age population decline [69][75]. - The US is likely to benefit the most from AI advancements due to its technological leadership and sector composition [81][88]. 4. **Governance and Political Climate**: - Increasing polarization and populism are noted as significant risks, potentially leading to lower long-term equity returns and higher volatility in investment [89][128]. - The report highlights a trend of declining democratic ratings, particularly in the US, which has historically preceded long-term equity underperformance [128]. 5. **Climate Change**: - Climate risk is identified as a critical factor affecting asset pricing, particularly in emerging markets (EM), where geographical vulnerabilities may lead to increased capital demand and macroeconomic volatility [160][169]. - The report suggests that climate change could raise real interest rates due to increased demand for capital and adverse supply shocks [160]. 6. **Globalization and Industrial Policy**: - A slight trend towards deglobalization is observed, with geopolitical tensions leading to a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows [174]. - The resurgence of industrial policy, particularly in large developed markets (DM), is expected to focus on strategic sectors, potentially benefiting small corporates more than large ones [180]. 7. **Debt Sustainability**: - Concerns about sovereign debt sustainability are raised, with higher debt levels and interest rates expected to create a feedback loop that could lead to crises similar to past events [149][150]. - The US is highlighted as facing significant challenges regarding its debt levels, particularly with the impending exhaustion of Social Security Trust Fund assets [156]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of immigration as a key factor in mitigating working-age population decline in certain countries [68]. - It also discusses the potential for the US dollar to face long-term depreciation due to gradual de-dollarization trends influenced by geopolitical factors [185]. - The analysis concludes with a strategic country scorecard, comparing long-term signals across various countries, indicating that the US maintains some favorable economic fundamentals despite risks [197]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape and future expectations.

From booming metros to culture-defining exports, the South has become a demographic powerhouse — and a battleground for American identity https://t.co/z8cLMisgDN ...

The “total fertility rate” captures what demographers call “tempo”—the timing of an event, like a birth. But as a measure of the total number of births, it is likely to mislead https://t.co/33sIXPx05r ...

🇮🇹 Italy’s demographic crisis deepens: The birth rate has been plummeting over the past seven years.Number of live births (approx.):• 2018: ~450,000• 2019: ~420,000• 2020: ~400,000• 2021: ~400,000• 2022: ~393,000• 2023: ~379,000• 2024: ~370,000• 2025 (on track): Even lower, with first 7 months already down 6.3% vs 2024Total Fertility Rate (children per woman): Fell from ~1.3 in 2018 to a record low of 1.18 in 2024 — far below the 2.1 replacement level.This is the lowest since unification in 1861, accelerati ...

RT Martin Sellner (@Martin_Sellner)Germany has 83.5 million people. Roughly one-third with a migrant background.The inconvenient truth: only about 11 million German women under 40 without a migrant background.Fertility: 1.0–1.3.The next generation of native women will be barely 6 million.What you’re seeing is a demographic illusion created by the Baby Boomer majority. When they’re gone, Germany is gone.We have a 15–20 year window for political change & remigration.Every hour counts.What are you doing? ...

RT Disclose.tv (@disclosetv)NEW - Trump says it's possible the U.S. may not consider most European nations allies if their demographics continue to change: "The people coming in have a totally different ideology." https://t.co/ggcl3Bdlox ...

Core Themes - The long-term investment outlook is driven by demographic changes rather than short-term interest rate cuts [2][3] - The aging population is a significant factor influencing market dynamics and consumer preferences [3][5] Demographic Trends - The peak number of 18-year-olds is expected to decline by a couple of million in the coming years, impacting consumer brands and market preferences [3][4] - The dominance of Generation X over younger cohorts will shift brand culture and consumer behavior [4][6] Healthcare Innovation - Healthcare is identified as a major beneficiary of AI advancements, which can reduce labor costs and improve margins [7] - The aging population is anticipated to drive a resurgence in healthcare innovation, supported by initiatives like the Genesis mission to leverage AI for innovation [8] Autonomous Vehicles - The older population is expected to create a tailwind for autonomous vehicles, as some individuals may lose the ability to drive [9][10] - Autonomous vehicles can enhance logistics and transportation for elder care, addressing the needs of an aging demographic [11] Investment Opportunities - Apollo Global Management is highlighted as a key investment due to its range of income-based products suited for an older population and its role in generational wealth transfer [12][13] - The company is positioned to benefit from broader wealth democratization through private credit and alternative investment solutions [14]

THIS IN HER 2026 INVESTMENT THEMES IS LISA THOMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND DEPUTY HEAD OF GLOBAL RESEARCH AT TD COWEN. LISA, GOOD MORNING. GOOD TO SEE YOU. >> HEY, GOOD TO SEE YOU, FRANK.>> SO YOU CAME OUT WITH SOME SOME OUTLOOKS FOR 2026. HOW MUCH OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY GETTING A CUT TODAY, BUT THE FED CONTINUING TO CUT. >> YOU KNOW THEY'RE REALLY NOT.THESE ARE THE LONGER TERM THEMES RIGHT. SO EACH YEAR WE REALLY TRY TO PULL BACK THE APERTURE AT TD COWAN AND LOOK AT THE BROAD INVESTMENT THEMES THAT ...

Look, I think and that actually is reminiscent because this feels like, you know, going into 2006, and I know for you it feels like when you your big your big night when you went >> Oh, no, but I get 2006 cuz I was on the ballot in 2006. >> Yes. >> And I ain't going to tell y'all what 2006 was like.It was like this. >> But but yeah, but you do get this feel and you do get something a feel that something's happening nationally. Look, when you look at all the special elections that we've had and you look at e ...