3 November 2025 | 9:50AM CST Equity Research China Healthcare Services: Drug Chains: 3Q25 Wrap-Up: Short-term under pressure, while operating efficiency continues to improve Overall, 3Q25 results, industry data and channel checks suggest the retail pharmacy industry continues to face short-term challenges from weak consumer demand, policy pressures (such as tighter reimbursement catalogs and traceability code regulations), and intensifying competition which have been weighing on margins. At present, the cor ...

Core Insights - The company has decided to increase the freight brokerage service fee starting in August to reduce reliance on government subsidies, which may lead to higher costs for shippers and a significant decline in freight brokerage transaction volume beginning in Q3 2025 [2][32] - The company reported a total of 60,800,000 fulfilled orders in Q2 2025, representing a 23.8% year-over-year increase, outpacing the broader freight industry trend [3][20] - The average fulfillment rate reached 40.7% in Q2 2025, an improvement of about seven percentage points year-over-year, marking a record high for the platform [3][20] - The company achieved net revenues of RMB 3,239,100,000 in Q2 2025, up 17.2% year-over-year, driven by growth in freight matching services [5][26] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating income was RMB 1,230,100,000 in Q2 2025, reflecting a 76% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7][30] Operational Highlights - The average monetization per order increased to RMB 25.2 in Q2 2025 from RMB 23.9 in Q2 2024, indicating a rise in per-order transaction service fees [4][23] - Active truckers fulfilling orders in the past twelve months reached 4,340,000, representing a 9% year-over-year increase [5][22] - Direct shipper orders contributed 53% of total fulfilled orders in Q2 2025, up four percentage points year-over-year, indicating a growing focus on high-value, full truckload transactions [4][21] Financial Performance - Revenues from transaction services in Q2 2025 were RMB 1,327,100,000, a 39.4% year-over-year increase, driven by higher order volumes and monetization per order [5][27] - Revenues from freight brokerage services were RMB 1,177,900,000 in Q2 2025, a 1.1% year-over-year increase, primarily due to higher service fee rates despite lower transaction volumes [6][27] - The company expects total net revenues for 2025 to range from RMB 3,000,000,000 to RMB 3,617,000,000, implying a year-over-year growth of 1.3% to 4.6% [8][33] Strategic Initiatives - The company has restructured its entrusted shipment offerings, eliminating carpooling and focusing on high-value, full truckload transactions to enhance margins [9][56] - New compliance initiatives include expanded rate protection and anti-fraud measures to respond to industry regulatory changes [10][48] - The company aims to strengthen the healthy development of both shipper and trucker ecosystems while expanding into new markets [19][24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenues for Q4 2024 grew by 32% year-over-year, reaching RMB3.17 billion [17] - Transaction service revenues surged over 70% year-over-year to RMB1.16 billion, contributing 36% of total net revenue [17] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating income increased by 142% year-over-year to RMB963.3 million [17] - Non-GAAP adjusted net income grew by 44% year-over-year to RMB1.05 billion [17] - Basic net income per ADS was RMB0.56 in Q4 2024, unchanged from the same period in 2023 [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fulfilled orders in Q4 increased by 24% year-over-year to 56.9 million [23] - The fulfillment rate reached a record high of 37.5%, up 5.4 percentage points year-over-year [14][24] - Average monthly active shippers surpassed 2.93 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of over 30% [12] - Revenues from transaction services amounted to RMB3.8 billion in 2024, representing a 66.7% increase year-over-year [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of active truckers fulfilling orders increased to 4.14 million over the past 12 months [26] - The monetized order penetration ratio increased to 82.9% in Q4, up over 11 percentage points from the previous year [27] - Revenues from freight brokerage services reached RMB4.7 billion for 2024, up 20.7% year-over-year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deepen online penetration and expand market share in the full truckload business while refining product offerings in less than truckload and short-haul services [51] - A semiannual cash dividend policy has been approved, with an expected total cash dividend of approximately $200 million for 2025 [29] - The company plans to optimize its revenue structure by reducing the proportion of freight brokerage business in the overall revenue mix [97] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving over 60% year-on-year growth in adjusted operating profit for 2025, driven by expanding user base and improved monetization efficiency [77] - The company anticipates total revenues for Q1 2025 to be between RMB2.63 billion and RMB2.68 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 15.9% to 18.1% [40] - Management highlighted ongoing improvements in supply and demand dynamics positively impacting fulfillment rates [60] Other Important Information - The company reported a one-time impairment loss of RMB350 million in Q4 due to an investment in an e-commerce platform facing ongoing operating losses [89] - The cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB29.2 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB27.6 billion a year earlier [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the acceleration in fulfilled orders in Q4? - Management identified robust growth in new user acquisitions, effective operational strategies, and rapid growth in new business lines as key drivers [45][49][50] Question: What were the key drivers behind the improvement in fulfillment rate? - The continuous improvement in user mix, precision operational strategies, and favorable supply-demand dynamics contributed to the fulfillment rate increase [55][56][60] Question: What was the growth trend for shipper membership in Q4? - The number of active shipper members surpassed 1 million, driven by the optimization of the membership tiering system and targeted subsidy strategies [64] Question: What are the main reasons behind the revenue growth in the freight brokerage service? - Revenue growth was primarily driven by increased service fee rates, despite a decrease in transaction volume [72][75] Question: How did the LTL business progress in Q4? - The LTL business maintained rapid growth due to deeper penetration into offline markets and optimization of carpooling features [80] Question: What are the main reasons behind the RMB350 million impairment loss? - The impairment loss stemmed from an investment in an e-commerce platform facing ongoing operating losses, deemed beyond recovery [89][91] Question: What is the overall development strategy for this year? - The company expects steady business growth with a focus on optimizing the revenue structure and enhancing operational efficiency [96][98]