FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國電信股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00728 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price of HKD 6.0, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 4.8 [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards a Token-based operational model in the AI era, with a continuous increase in dividend payout ratio, achieving a 75% payout rate ahead of the original 2026 target [3][7]. - Despite a stable revenue outlook, the company faced a decline in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for the first time in recent years, indicating pressure on core business segments [7]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams, with significant growth in its data services and cloud business, particularly in the public cloud IaaS market [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift from "cloud transformation" to "intelligent cloud services," integrating AI into traditional business operations to optimize costs and improve management [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 529.56 billion, with a net profit of HKD 33.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 0% and a slight decrease in net profit [6][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is HKD 0.37, down from HKD 0.41 in 2025, indicating a 10.5% decline [6][7]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at HKD 804 billion, a decrease of 14.1% year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing computing infrastructure [7]. - The dividend per share is projected to be HKD 0.28 for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.8% [6][7]. Operational Metrics - As of the end of 2025, the mobile user base reached 439 million, with 302 million 5G users, representing a penetration rate of 68.8% [7][16]. - The mobile ARPU decreased to HKD 45.1, down 1.1% year-on-year, while the broadband ARPU also saw a decline to HKD 47.1 [7][16]. - The company’s cloud revenue reached HKD 1.207 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, solidifying its position as the second-largest player in the public cloud IaaS market in China [7].

中國電信（0728） 更新報告 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 派息分紅比率持續提高，AI 時代下向 Token 經營轉型 ➢ 風險提示：AIDC 和雲業務發展不及預期，ARPU 值下降及競爭加劇等。 羅凡環 852-2532 1539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 | 行業 | 電訊服務 | | --- | --- | | 股價 | 4.8 港元 | | 目標價 | 6.0 港元 | | | （+26%） | | 股票代碼 | 728.HK | | 已發行股本 | 915.07 億股 | | 市值 | 4400 億港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 6.3/4.8 港元 | | 每股淨現值 | 5.6 港元 | | 主要股東 | 中國電信集團：63.9% | | | 廣晟控股集團有限公 | | | 司：5.2% | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國電信股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00728 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 运营商 25 年总结：稳健增长，强化 AI [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、运营商专题 当前时点，运营商传统业务持续承压，在宏观经济环境以及 5G 高渗透率节点，相关业务盈利能力持续缩减。运营商行业智能 化、数字化转型已初见成效，相关业务占收比持续提升，推动 整体收入稳健；利润端受益于降本增效和折旧摊销减少，增速 维持稳定。 我们认为： 1）算力网络方面将是长线投资热点和方向，运营商持续智能与 算力网络建设，是算力基础底座的生态核心，在算力持续增长 过程中，运营商 IDC、服务器、光模块、光纤光缆产业链有望 持续受益。 2）伴随新一代通信业务拓展，我们预计包括 AI 物联网（车联 网、AIOT）、卫星通信以及低空经济等有望推动行业新需求衍 生，是未来提升估值的潜在动力。 2、风险提示 移动业务收入稳定不及预期；2B2G 业务应收账款规模扩大；云 业务竞争加大导致毛利率下降；宏观经济影响。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China have shifted their investment focus towards "computing power," establishing it as the core of their capital expenditures, surpassing traditional network construction as the primary investment driver for the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In 2025, China Mobile reported operating revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.05 trillion yuan, maintaining its leadership position [3]. - China Telecom's operating revenue was 529.6 billion yuan, while China Unicom reported 392.2 billion yuan in operating revenue [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - China Mobile plans to reduce its total capital expenditure to 136.6 billion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with computing power investments increasing by 62.4% to 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 28% of its capital expenditure [3]. - China Telecom's capital expenditure for 2025 was 80.4 billion yuan, with computing infrastructure investments of 20.2 billion yuan, making up about 25% of its total [4]. - China Unicom's total capital expenditure for the year was 54.2 billion yuan, with a projected capital expenditure of around 50 billion yuan for 2026, where computing power investments are expected to exceed 35% [4]. Group 3: Computing Power Capacity - As of now, China Mobile's total computing power capacity has reached 92.5 EFLOPS (FP16), while China Telecom's capacity stands at 91 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's capacity is at 45 EFLOPS [5]. - The demand for large AI models has highlighted that mere network connectivity is insufficient to meet market needs, indicating a fundamental restructuring of the operators' underlying logic from being mere "transporters of information" to becoming "computing power providers" in the intelligent era [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][11] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 523.93 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 33.18 billion, up 0.52% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.272 per share for 2025, with a payout ratio of 75%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly expanding with the development of AI applications, and the company is transitioning towards a Token service model, which is expected to drive growth in its digital business [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The mobile communication service revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.0% to RMB 204.5 billion, with a mobile user base of 439 million, reflecting a net increase of 14.13 million users [2] - The fixed-line and smart home service revenue is expected to grow by 0.2% to RMB 126 billion, with a fixed broadband user base of 201 million, a net increase of 3.68 million users [2] - The company's digitalization revenue is projected to grow by 0.5% to RMB 147.3 billion, focusing on high-quality, profitable business segments [3] Capital Expenditure and Cost Management - Capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at RMB 80.4 billion, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, with a further expected decline of 9.2% to RMB 73 billion in 2026 [4] - The company has successfully reduced network operation and support costs by 2.1% year-on-year, aided by AI-driven cost management [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of RMB 30.52 billion, RMB 31.98 billion, and RMB 33.17 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with a downward adjustment of 16.6% from previous estimates [5][11] - The target price is set at RMB 8.16 based on a 1.6x PB valuation for 2026, with a corresponding target price of HKD 6.92 for H shares [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][11] Core Insights - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 523.93 billion in 2025, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 33.18 billion, up 0.52% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.272 per share for 2025, with a payout ratio of 75%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly expanding with the development of AI applications, and the company is transitioning towards a Token service model, which is expected to drive growth in its digital business [1][3] Revenue and User Metrics - In the mobile segment, the company reported a 1.0% increase in mobile communication service revenue to RMB 204.5 billion, with a net addition of 14.13 million mobile users, bringing the total to 439 million [2] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile services decreased slightly to RMB 45.1 from RMB 45.6 in 2024 [2] - In the fixed-line segment, revenue grew by 0.2% to RMB 126 billion, with a total of 201 million broadband users, an increase of 3.68 million users [2] Digital Business Growth - The revenue from the digitalization segment is projected to grow by 0.5% to RMB 147.3 billion in 2025, with a focus on high-quality, profitable business lines [3] - The company aims to position Token services as the main operational line, offering various packages and services to B2B clients, which is expected to significantly boost intelligent revenue, projected to grow by 38.2% year-on-year in 2025 [3] Capital Expenditure and Cost Management - Capital expenditure for 2025 is reported at RMB 80.4 billion, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, with expectations for a further decline of 9.2% to RMB 73 billion in 2026 [4] - The company has successfully reduced network operation and support costs by 2.1% year-on-year, attributed to AI-driven cost management [4] Long-term Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2026-2028 to be RMB 30.52 billion, RMB 31.98 billion, and RMB 33.17 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 16.6% from previous estimates [5] - The target price for the company's stock is set at RMB 8.16, based on a 1.6x PB valuation for 2026, with a corresponding target price of HKD 6.92 for H shares [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on China Telecom, indicating that the company's performance in the second half of 2025 is expected to be below expectations, with total service revenue showing only a slight increase of 0.2% to 236.3 billion yuan [5]. Core Insights - China Telecom's mobile service revenue growth has slowed to 0.7%, attributed to a focus on cash flow-generating cloud projects, which has led to a 0.5% decline in industrial digitalization revenue [5][6]. - The company announced a dividend of 0.272 yuan per share for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with a payout ratio of 75% and a corresponding dividend yield of 6.1% [5]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on revenue in 2026, although reduced capital expenditures are expected to support profits and dividends, albeit with a potential slowdown in dividend growth [5][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Mobile service revenue for the second half of 2025 is projected to grow by 0.7% to 98 billion yuan, driven by an increase in user base, with a net addition of 6 million mobile users [6]. - Fixed-line and broadband revenue is expected to show a slight increase of 0.3% to 61.8 billion yuan, impacted by weak consumer spending due to macroeconomic conditions [7]. - Industrial digitalization revenue is forecasted to decline by 0.5% to 72.5 billion yuan, as the company adopts a more cautious approach to cloud projects, prioritizing those with high cash flow return potential [8]. Profitability and Capital Expenditure - EBITDA for the second half of 2025 is expected to decrease by 1.2% to 63.3 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 26.8% [9]. - The company is implementing strict cost control measures, resulting in a 0.7% reduction in labor costs and a 2% decrease in network operation costs [9]. - Capital expenditures are projected to drop by 14% in 2025, with a further planned reduction of 9% to 73 billion yuan in 2026, which is expected to support future profits and dividends [9]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - China Telecom is positioned as a leading player in the IDC sector, with a high listing rate of 60-70%, and is expected to benefit from the AI wave as a late-stage beneficiary [5][11]. - The company is focusing on expanding its user base and enhancing ARPU through AI and cloud-based value-added services [6].

Market Performance - A-shares halted their decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.43%[1] - The Hang Seng Index opened higher, gaining 2.79% to close at 25063.71 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 2.51%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong reached 3030.734 million HKD[1] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump hinted at a potential diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, suggesting that Iran has made a significant gesture related to the Strait of Hormuz, with negotiations ongoing[12] - The U.S. is reportedly seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate diplomatic discussions with Iran, proposing a 15-point plan to end the conflict[12] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global PMI indicated that U.S. business activity growth slowed to its lowest level in nearly a year, with input prices rising following the outbreak of the Iran conflict[12] - The composite output index fell to 51.4, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion, while input prices rose to their highest level since May[12] Investment Trends - China's sovereign wealth fund, CIC, is reportedly re-engaging with U.S. asset management firms, including Blackstone and TPG, after previously reducing exposure to the U.S.[12]