This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole. The Fed has come and gone without moving the needle on bitcoin's (BTC) price in any meaningful way. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but supposedly delivered hawkish forward guidance. Still, the dollar has been sold off. Amid all this, BTC continues to bore traders with its directionless price action. The picture on the daily price chart remains largely unchanged since before t ...

The dollar index (DXY00) tumbled to a 1.75-month low on Thursday and finished down by -0.43%.  The dollar was under pressure Thursday on negative carryover from Wednesday after the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by -25 bp and said it would boost liquidity in the financial system and begin purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills. The dollar added to its losses on Thursday after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to a 3-month high, a sign of labor market weakness that is dovish for ...

Core Insights - The dollar index reached a 5.5-month high but ended the day with a slight increase of +0.03% due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials and consumer sentiment data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's US November consumer sentiment index was revised upward by +0.7 to 51.0, surpassing expectations of 50.6 [3] - The US November S&P manufacturing PMI decreased by -0.6 to 51.9, aligning closely with expectations of 52.0 [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for a rate cut in the near term, citing increased downside risks to employment and eased upside risks to inflation [4] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that maintaining steady interest rates is appropriate for now, given the likelihood of sustained elevated inflation [4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that further rate cuts would be difficult unless clear evidence of faster-than-expected inflation decline or a cooling labor market emerges [5] Market Expectations - The market is pricing in a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [5]

Rick Santelli joining us now from Chicago with the bond report. Rick, I went on like a it was like a 10-second mini rant yesterday, but the the gist was basically this. The Federal Reserve can say and do what it wants. The bond market is the boss and the bond market is going to do what it wants and it wanted and wants clearly to take interest rates if not higher, not lower.Yeah, it's a very interesting dynamic, especially for those that are in the current administration or those that are looking towards hou ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to falling U.S. interest rates and rising debt levels, indicating that it has not yet found a bottom [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index was trading at 97.77 on July 21, 2025, and has shown little movement over the past two months, with potential for lower lows as U.S. rates decline [2]. - The dollar index has declined 12.5% from a high of 110.17 on January 13, 2025, to a low of 96.37 on July 1, 2025 [3]. - Since July 24, the index has consolidated within a range of 96.22 to 100.26, currently around 97.50, close to critical technical support at 96.22 [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the euro significantly influences the dollar index, with the euro making up 57.6% of the index [5]. - The Federal Reserve cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a midpoint of 4.125% during the September 18 FOMC meeting, with expectations for further reductions due to rising unemployment and low inflation [5][6]. - The Fed is likely to continue reducing rates, influenced by the upcoming appointment of a new Chairman in early 2026, which may align with the administration's preference for lower short-term rates [7][8].

Ha! The "safest bet" looks sorry so far 😬From Jan to Sep 2025:✔️ Bitcoin: +14.5%✔️ DXY (Dollar Index): -7.7%𝑪𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅𝒂 𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒓𝒚𝒑𝒕𝒐. 𝑺𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒄𝒂𝒏. https://t.co/KiHhf6uRb1 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds target range by -25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% and indicated downside risks to employment have increased while inflation remains elevated [3] - The Fed's dot plot projects the fed funds target at 3.625% by the end of 2025, signaling another -50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with a target range of 3.375% for the end of 2026 [3] - The FOMC raised its 2025 US GDP estimate to +1.6% from +1.4% and maintained its core PCE inflation estimate at +3.1%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [4] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - Fed Chair Powell noted that revised job numbers indicate the labor market is no longer solid, and the Fed's interest rate cuts aim to achieve a more neutral position to support the labor market [5] - Powell also mentioned that higher goods prices are contributing to inflation and are expected to continue rising into next year [5] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The dollar index rose by +0.22% after recovering from a 3.5-year low, initially retreating after the FOMC's rate cut announcement but rebounding on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Concerns over Fed independence may undermine the dollar, as potential political actions could lead foreign investors to divest from dollar assets [6] Group 4: Housing Market Data - In August, US housing starts fell -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [2] - Building permits also unexpectedly declined by -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, contrary to expectations of an increase to 1.370 million [2]

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)💥 Dollar Index $DXY is dumping — down 11% since January.Driven by expectations of upcoming #FOMC rate cuts.Positive: Risk assets love it. #Bitcoin, alts & equities usually pump as investors flee cash.Negative: A weaker dollar can reignite inflation pressures.The dollar’s fall = both rally fuel & inflation fire. 🌍💵 ...

💥 Dollar Index $DXY is dumping — down 11% since January.Driven by expectations of upcoming #FOMC rate cuts.Positive: Risk assets love it. #Bitcoin, alts & equities usually pump as investors flee cash.Negative: A weaker dollar can reignite inflation pressures.The dollar’s fall = both rally fuel & inflation fire. 🌍💵 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices reached their highest level in over a month, supported by positive manufacturing data from China and a weaker dollar [1][9] - Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.2% at $9,886 per metric ton after hitting $9,947, the highest since July 24 [1] - LME copper has increased by 12% this year, rebounding from $8,105 in early April, which was the lowest in over 16 months [1][6] Group 2 - A private sector survey indicated that China's factory activity in August expanded at the fastest pace in five months, driven by rising new orders [2] - The overall macro and cyclical conditions in China are improving, which is expected to positively impact final demand [2] - Chinese equities have also shown strong performance, reflecting broader market positivity [4] Group 3 - Concerns about US tariffs are dampening factory activity in other parts of Asia, which may affect metals markets [5] - The dollar index fell to a five-week low, influencing commodity prices for buyers using other currencies [7] - A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in US currency cheaper for international buyers, impacting overall demand [8]