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The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.28%.  Today’s stock rally has curbed liquidity demand for the dollar.  Losses in the dollar are contained due to today’s stronger-than-expected US economic news on weekly jobless claims and Q3 GDP. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +1,000 to 200,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 209,000. More News from Barchart US Q3 GDP was revised upward by 0.1 to 4.4% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 4.3%. US ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.02%.  The dollar is slightly lower today amid concerns that President Trump will impose higher tariffs on several European countries if they don’t allow him to acquire Greenland.  The dollar remained lower after the US Dec pending home sales posted their biggest decline in 5.5 years.  However, the dollar recovered most of its losses after President Trump backed away from harsh rhetoric about acquiring Greenland and said he doesn’t want to use excessive force to ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose by +0.26%, supported by the yen's weakness, which fell to a 1.5-year low against the dollar [1] - US October new home sales fell -0.1% month-over-month to 737,000, which was stronger than the expected 715,000 [3] - US December core consumer prices were unchanged from November at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations - The markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - Concerns over Fed independence have arisen following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding potential criminal charges related to his testimony, which may impact market sentiment [2][5] Group 3: Liquidity and Future Fed Chair Speculation - The Federal Reserve has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills to boost liquidity in the financial system [5] - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett seen as the most dovish candidate [5]

The dollar index (DXY00) rose to a 1-week high on Tuesday and finished up by +0.18%.  The dollar found support Tuesday from better-than-expected US economic news on home prices and the Dec MNI Chicago PMI.  Also, higher T-note yields on Tuesday have strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials.  The dollar extended its gains Tuesday afternoon from the slightly hawkish minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. Questions about the Fed’s independence are limiting gains in the dollar after Preside ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose slightly by +0.02% on Monday, supported by stock market weakness and a stronger-than-expected November pending home sales report, which increased by +3.3% month-over-month against expectations of +0.9% [1][4] - The dollar faced downward pressure after the December Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook unexpectedly declined by -0.5 to -10.9, contrary to expectations of an increase to -6.0 [1][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The markets are currently pricing in a 16% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting scheduled for January 27-28, with expectations of a total -50 basis point cut by 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve is increasing liquidity in the financial system by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, which is contributing to the dollar's underlying weakness [3] Group 3: International Currency Movements - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.03% on Monday due to a lack of progress in talks to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian war and lower Eurozone government bond yields, with the 10-year German bund yield dropping to a 3-week low of 2.824% [5] - The yen (USD/JPY) rose by +0.35% against the dollar, supported by indications from the December 19 BOJ meeting that further rate increases are likely due to Japan's low real interest rates [6]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell to a new 2.75-month low but then recovered and ended the day little changed.  The dollar continues to trade on a weak note despite Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% and the reduced odds for Fed easing.  The markets have reduced the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to the current level of 16% from 20% before the GDP report. In a report released Wednesday, US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -10,000 to 214,000 in ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today posted a new 2.75-month low but then recovered and is little changed.  The dollar continues to trade on a weak note despite Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% and the reduced odds for Fed easing.  The markets on Tuesday reduced the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 13% from 20%. In a report released today, US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -10,000 to 214,000 in the week ended Dec 20, showing a stronger labor market than ...

Economic Indicators - US industrial production in November fell by -0.1% month-over-month, which was weaker than market expectations of +0.1% [1] - Manufacturing production in November decreased by -0.4% month-over-month, also below expectations of +0.1% [1] - Durable goods orders in October fell by -2.2% month-over-month, worse than the expected decline of -1.5% [2] - Core capital goods orders in October rose by +0.5% month-over-month, slightly above expectations of +0.3% [2] - The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index for December fell to -16.8, lower than the expected rise to -15.0 [3] - The US consumer confidence index for December decreased by -3.8 points to 89.1, below the expected level of 91.0 [3] GDP and Inflation - The US Q3 real GDP rose by +4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized, surpassing expectations of +3.3% [4] - The Q3 GDP Price Index increased by +3.8% quarter-over-quarter annualized, significantly above expectations of +2.7% [4] - The Q3 core PCE Price Index rose by +2.9% quarter-over-quarter annualized, in line with expectations [4] Currency and Monetary Policy - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with $40 billion monthly purchases of T-bills starting in mid-December [5] - The dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.22%, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP report [7] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points [6] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices increased, supported by strong central bank demand and geopolitical risks [12][14] - The PBOC's gold reserves rose by +30,000 ounces to 74.1 million troy ounces in November, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of increases [14] - Silver inventories in Shanghai fell to 519,000 kilograms, the lowest level in 10 years, contributing to price support [15]

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in active US oil rigs, which suggests a potential decrease in crude production in the near term [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.51 (+0.91%) and January RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0069 (+0.41%) on Friday [1]. - Crude oil prices are supported by heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, alongside a stock market rally that boosts optimism about energy demand [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Baker Hughes weekly report indicated that active US oil rigs fell to a 4.25-year low, which is expected to lead to lower crude production [2]. - A bearish global supply outlook continues to limit the upside potential for crude prices, with the crude crack spread falling to a 6-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, including a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela and potential increased sanctions on Russian energy exports, is supportive of crude prices [4]. - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have exacerbated fuel shortages in Russia, limiting its crude export capabilities and lowering global oil supplies [6].