朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是華爾街時間 2025年8月25日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情，這個是比特幣的周線 從周線級別來看 我們看到上周的周線是一根陰線 但是最後又跌下來 測試了前面這一帶的高點 然後又收了回去 雖然說這兩天是有一點恐慌 但是周線級別來說好像還有一點點的希望 因為它並沒有收線 在前面的高點的下方 那麼跌下來 然後又收回去 把下面的這樣的一些止損獵殺掉 然後感覺還是存在一定的可能性 它會在這邊繼續盤整做一個派發區間 這是k線告訴我們的 好像沒有那麼的糟糕 但是另外有一個MACD背離 我們是最近這段時間每次都拿出來看 你可以看到這邊出現了第一次的死叉 好像並不是特別的樂觀 那麼昨天這個時候其實有拋壓 一兩萬枚比特幣的一個市場的賣單 為什麼會出現這樣的情況 我的一個猜測就是 周線級別開始出現了死叉 所以有一些現貨的會考慮在這邊賣出 那麼這是一個我們需要留意的 上一次的周線級別背離是在這個地方 我們可以看到來到這邊就繼續往下跌了 所以這樣的一個因素 讓我們覺得如果說接下來這一周 如果它是一根陰線 跌到這個下面來結合MACD背離來說 我就會認為它有非常大的概率 會 ...

港股時段，瑞聲科技(02018)盤中高見50.6元突破保力加通道頂部，現價報50.15元，升幅6.03%。股價強勢突破10日線(44.86元)、30日線(41.93元)及60日線 (40.45元)，技術面呈現「買入」信號，RSI 76進入超買區，威廉指標及隨機震盪指標同步發出買入訊號，但需警惕CCI指標出現超買狀態，短線可能面臨回 調壓力。 回顧上週五在專欄【港股Podcast】中有投資者問到瑞聲科技 (02018.HK)：投資者表示看好業績，下一波要帶量突破50-55元。Simon:走勢升穿保力加通道的 頂部。買賣信號為"買入"，短線向好一些。阻力位在48.5元和51.7元。有機會突破投資者期望的50元關口。 關鍵位攻防戰 即市支持位落在45.1元（支持1）及42.8元（支持2），上方阻力先看52元（阻力1），突破後有望挑戰56.2元（阻力2）。值得注意的是，5日振幅高達 12.6%，配合牛熊力量指標「中立」，反映市場對後市走勢仍存分歧。 國君認購證15427提供5.5倍槓桿，行使價54.73元，其溢價為同類最低，適合看好突破52元後續漲的投資者。中銀認購證18352行使價54.04元，雖然槓桿略低 至2. ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi (01810.HK) is experiencing positive market sentiment with investors targeting a price of 60 HKD, supported by strong demand for call options with a strike price of 68.88 HKD [1] Technical Analysis - Xiaomi's stock price closed above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a bullish signal for investors [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at 59.8 HKD and 61.1 HKD, while immediate support is at 55.5 HKD, with a potential drop to 54.5 HKD if this support is breached [3] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting increasing short-term momentum, although the RSI is neutral at 55, indicating a need for more volume before challenging resistance [1][3] Derivative Instruments - Recent price fluctuations have created trading opportunities for derivative investors, with HSBC and UBS offering call options with leverage ratios of 4.9x and 5.1x, respectively [6] - Notable performance of structured products includes a 44% increase in JPMorgan's bull certificate and a 33% rise in UBS's bull certificate following a 2.85% rise in Xiaomi's stock [3] - Bearish strategies include put options from UBS and JPMorgan, both providing leverage of 4.8x, with strike prices around 53.94 HKD and 53.99 HKD [9] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment towards Xiaomi remains optimistic, with a focus on potential price movements and the effectiveness of derivative products in capitalizing on market volatility [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - JD Group's stock price is currently fluctuating around HKD 121.6, showing a decline of 1.38%, with significant market divergence observed [2][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock is trading below key moving averages: MA10 at HKD 126.04, MA30 at HKD 128.3, and MA60 at HKD 130.6, indicating a prevailing "sell" signal [2]. - The technical strength index is low at 14, suggesting dominant downward pressure, while the RSI is at 41, nearing the oversold zone [2]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 119.4 and HKD 115.2, with resistance at HKD 128 and potential further resistance at HKD 133.4 [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a significant increase in bearish derivative products, with notable gains in put options as JD's stock price fell [5]. - The trading volume for JD's stock was reported at HKD 2.099 billion, indicating that capital has not significantly exited the market [5]. Derivative Products - Active trading in JD's warrants suggests potential short-term rebounds, with specific warrants offering leverage of 4.7 to 6.1 times [8]. - Investors looking for bearish positions can consider high-leverage put options, which have shown competitive pricing and volatility [8]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For aggressive investors, a bull certificate with a recovery price of HKD 118 offers a high leverage of 14.5 times, while a more conservative option has a recovery price of HKD 115 with 9.9 times leverage [10]. - Bear certificates are also available for those anticipating a rebound followed by a decline, with both options providing around 6.3 times leverage [10].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's recently passed trillion-dollar tax and spending bill adds uncertainty to the gold market, with a projected increase of $3.4 trillion in federal debt over the next decade [2] - The bill aims to stimulate economic growth through fiscal expansion by solidifying 2017 tax cuts, expanding corporate tax deductions, and cutting spending on healthcare and renewable energy projects [2] - However, the administration's anti-growth policies, including mass immigration deportations and new tariffs on Chinese goods, raise concerns about supply chain restructuring [2] Group 2 - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with 130,000 workers voluntarily exiting the job market in June, and long-term unemployment rising to 1.647 million, extending the average unemployment duration from 9.5 weeks to 10.1 weeks [2] - Defensive strategies among companies reflect cautious sentiment in the job market, with a record high of companies prioritizing existing employees for reassignment, and hiring freezes becoming mainstream [2] - The ISM survey indicates that structural unemployment risks may become more pronounced due to these defensive measures [2] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.26 yuan per gram, down 0.45%, with a short-term outlook leaning towards a volatile trend [1] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with key support levels at $3,250-$3,400, and a critical support level at $3,247 [3] - The short-term support is identified at $3,310-$3,300, while the mid-term key support is at $3,247, which is crucial for determining the medium-term adjustment trend [3] Group 4 - Key resistance levels for gold are set at $3,350-$3,360 in the short term and $3,400-$3,432 in the mid-term, which includes significant historical price points [5]

Group 1 - Zhaojin Mining (01818) has shown strong recent performance, with technical indicators suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term. As of 11:30 AM, the latest price was HKD 20.15, up 2.7%, with the 10-day moving average (HKD 18.3) crossing above the 30-day moving average (HKD 18.01), forming a "golden cross" that reflects a positive short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67, nearing the overbought zone but not extreme, while the MACD shows a "buy" signal. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating potential increased volatility. Key support levels are at HKD 18.6 and HKD 17.8, with resistance at HKD 20.9 and HKD 21.7. A breakthrough above HKD 20.9 could challenge higher levels [1] - The leverage effect of warrants has amplified returns, with Zhaojin Mining's stock price rising 8.76% on May 19, leading to significant gains in related warrants. Morgan Stanley's call option (27406) and UBS's call option (27337) recorded increases of 27% and 29%, respectively, exceeding the stock's rise by more than three times [4] Group 2 - Investors optimistic about Zhaojin Mining's potential to break through the HKD 20.9 resistance should consider longer-dated slightly out-of-the-money call options to balance time decay and leverage benefits. Current call options have varied terms, with exercise prices concentrated around HKD 18 and HKD 30. For instance, in-the-money products like Morgan Stanley's call option (27839) and UBS's call option (27337) have a leverage of 2.8 times, while out-of-the-money products have a leverage exceeding 3.3 times, with expiration dates in late November [7] - The market sentiment around Zhaojin Mining is influenced by strong gold prices and a robust technical outlook, although the RSI and Williams indicators are approaching overbought levels, raising questions about potential profit-taking in the short term. Investors are encouraged to share their strategies regarding whether to opt for warrants or directly purchase the underlying stock [10]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,200 yuan/ton and closed at 122,870 yuan/ton, a change of -0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,167 lots, and the open interest was 63,519 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly in the morning and accelerated its decline near the mid - day close, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased. The daily MACD's red bar area did not significantly expand and was close to turning green. There might be a downward trend in the short - term. The 60 - minute line showed a top divergence near 126,400 before May Day and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after May Day. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally weak, with no recovery in downstream purchasing willingness and merchants reducing sales volume. The premium and discount increased slightly compared to the previous trading day and remained stable recently. Jinchuan nickel premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, imported nickel premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton, and nickel bean premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 23,142 (-329.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,098 (90) tons [2]. Strategy - The trading of refined nickel spot has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, focus on range operations; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,970 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,035 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated weakly throughout the day, closing with a negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased substantially. The daily MACD's red bar area failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market lowered their morning quotations by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared to the previous trading day, mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,175 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 360 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 946.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].

Fundamental Analysis - The global economic situation, monetary policies of major economies, and geopolitical issues significantly impact gold prices [3] - Gold prices typically have an inverse relationship with the US dollar index; a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices and vice versa [4] - Inflation erodes the purchasing power of currency, making gold a sought-after asset during inflationary periods [5] - The supply and demand dynamics, including changes in gold mining output and central bank reserves, also affect gold prices [6] Technical Analysis - Candlestick charts are essential for technical analysis, allowing investors to observe market trends and potential buy/sell signals [7] - Technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD, and RSI serve as navigational tools for investors to assess market conditions [7] - Support and resistance levels act as critical price points; breaking through these levels often indicates a shift in market trends [7] Risk Management - Setting stop-loss orders acts as a safety mechanism for investors, automatically triggering a sell when prices fall to a predetermined level [8] - Position sizing is crucial; investors should not risk all their capital on a single trade and should allocate funds based on their risk tolerance [8] - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in a single asset [8] Psychological Management - Greed and fear can hinder investment decisions; maintaining a calm and rational mindset is essential for analyzing market dynamics [10] - Developing and adhering to a trading plan serves as a strategic guide, helping investors avoid impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations [10] - Continuous learning is vital for investors to keep pace with the evolving financial market and remain competitive [10]