Summary of Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co Earnings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb58,692 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: Rmb26.60 - **Current Price (as of March 31, 2025)**: Rmb26.51 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb30.05 - Rmb18.77 Key Points from the Earnings Conference Call 2025 Outlook - The company anticipates continuous export growth and market share gains, with domestic sales potentially boosted by policy stimulus on bus sales [1][3] - Specific targets for 2025 include: - Domestic sales: 36.5k units, representing an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase - Exports: 16.5k units, representing an 18% YoY increase [1][3] - Total revenue guidance for 2025 is Rmb42.1 billion, indicating a 13% YoY growth, with largely flattened average selling price (ASP) compared to previous years [1][3] ASP Trends - The flattening of ASP is attributed to a decline in domestic ASP due to smaller bus demand, while higher overseas ASP is expected [1][3] 1Q25 Outlook - The company expects approximately 9k units in total sales for 1Q25, primarily driven by domestic sales, with exports facing a high comparable base from 1Q24 [2] - Profit growth in 1Q25 is anticipated to be muted [2] Dividends - The company proposed another round of interim dividends in 2025, which may be viewed positively by the market [2] - Despite a strong cash position, the company may not sustain its previous payout ratio of over 100% [2] Financial Metrics - Projected EPS for 2025: Rmb1.82 - Projected revenue for 2025: Rmb39,757 million - Projected EBITDA for 2025: Rmb5,313 million - Projected P/E ratio for 2025: 14.5 - Projected ROE for 2025: 28.7% [4] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected export performance - Stronger-than-expected domestic demand recovery - Transition to new energy buses globally [8] - **Downside Risks**: - Macroeconomic uncertainties affecting private sector demand - Increased competition both domestically and internationally - Slower overseas growth due to protectionism [8] Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [6] Additional Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from policy changes aimed at stimulating bus sales domestically, which could enhance its market share [1][3] - The focus on exports and new energy buses aligns with global trends towards sustainability and electrification in the transportation sector [8]