分组1 - The market is anticipating an 88% chance of a rate cut, with the distinction between a hawkish or dovish cut being crucial for market sentiment [2] - A dovish cut would indicate potential for further easing, while a hawkish cut would suggest a slowdown in rate reductions [2] - Current futures indicate that the next rate cut is pushed to April, with only two cuts expected in 2026, a significant decrease from four cuts previously anticipated [3] 分组2 - Oracle has a substantial backlog of $455 billion, which could either bolster confidence or raise skepticism about the monetization of these commitments [4] - The market's perception of Oracle's backlog will be critical; a significant increase may lead to doubts about its validity, while a lower backlog could validate existing skepticism [4] - Oracle's debt remains inexpensive, but demand for its bonds has been weak, indicating a disconnect with the AI-cloud growth narrative [5] 分组3 - Adobe is currently trading at a historically low valuation compared to its long-term multiples, but this alone does not guarantee a buy signal [6] - The stock chart for Adobe is showing signs of improvement, with shares approaching the daily 100MA, which could indicate a shift towards a bullish trend [6] - The upcoming earnings report will be pivotal in determining whether Adobe can maintain its status as a software leader in the AI landscape or if it has lost momentum [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut during its upcoming meeting, driven by recent tame inflation data and signs of weakness in the job market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - As of Monday, the market has priced in a 96.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting [2]. - JPMorgan estimates a 95% likelihood of a Fed rate cut, with an 87.5% chance of it being a 25-basis-point reduction [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Reactions - A "Dovish Cut" is anticipated, which could lead to a positive market reaction, with the S&P 500 potentially gaining about 1% immediately after the cut, reaching approximately 6,650 [6]. - However, there are concerns that this could lead to a "sell-the-news" event, where stocks may decline as investors reassess the macro environment and other factors [7]. Group 3: Future Projections - If headwinds materialize, stocks could fall by as much as 5% in the following weeks, but this could create buying opportunities for investors [8].