Economic Data Summary - The GDP data released shows a surprising increase to 4.3%, significantly higher than the prior 3.8% and the expected 3.3% [1][4] - Durable goods orders, however, fell by 2.2%, indicating a mixed economic signal [2] Market Reaction - Following the GDP announcement, there was a notable spike in the two-year yield, reaching 3.5351, as traders reacted to the unexpected GDP growth [3] - The market's response suggests a selling trend in the front end of the yield curve, reflecting uncertainty about future interest rate adjustments [3] Federal Reserve Implications - The unexpected GDP growth raises questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 0.75% in September, which was primarily influenced by employment concerns [5] - There is a growing disconnect between rapid aggregate demand growth and sluggish employment figures, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [5] - The divided opinions among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants indicate that this new data point could influence future interest rate considerations [6][7]

Welcome back to Squawkbox. Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with some delayed but very important data points. We'll be looking at October preliminary durable goods.Philly Fed and GDP second time around the block delayed third quarter numbers. We're looking for 3.3% zoom zoom zoom 4.3%. 4.3%.That is a nice jump. And I know many may question day the gathering, but on the surface this would be the strongest quarter going back to the third quarter of 2023 when it was 4.7%. This is strong.3.5% on consumption bl ...

Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has shown favorable trends, with GDP revised to 3.8% for the second quarter and personal consumption expenditures increasing from 1.6% to 2.5% [2] - Durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 2.9% instead of the anticipated decline of 0.5%, while core capital goods also increased by 6% [2] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have improved, dropping to 218,000, which is a positive trend compared to previous weeks where claims were above 260,000 [3] Government Spending and Economic Growth - Despite a decrease in government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.2%, and real gross output rose by 1.2% [4] - The economy is showing resilience and growth even as government involvement diminishes [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - There is a wide range of opinions among Federal Reserve speakers regarding the economy and interest rates, with some advocating for lower Fed funds rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to market volatility, suggesting that the market may be reacting to perceived high valuations [9] Market Reactions - The market's decline, despite strong economic data, may be attributed to profit-taking and reactions to Fed comments [9]

Labor Market - Job openings in July came in at 7,181,000, lower than the expected 7,400,000, marking the smallest job openings number since the end of 2020 [1] Factory Orders - Factory orders for July met expectations at -13%, the strongest number since May [2] - Factory orders excluding transportation also met expectations, up 610 [2] Durable Goods - Final durable goods orders for July remained at -28%, a weak number [3] - June durable goods orders were -94%, the worst since April 2020, following a 165% increase prior to that, the best since 2014, indicating a tug-of-war possibly related to tariffs [3][4] - Transportation orders excluding air decreased from 11% mid-month to 1% [4] - Capital good orders non-defense excluding air, a proxy for capital spending, remained at 11%, the best number since May when it was up almost 2% [4][5] - Shipments were about 07% (3/4 of 1%), consistent with the mid-month read [5] Bond Market - The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 422%, down four basis points, and the 2-year Treasury yield is at 361%, down three basis points [5] - The 10-year Treasury yield has been in a consolidated range between 420% and 433% [6]

Factory Orders & Revisions - June factory orders declined by 48%, the weakest since January 2024 [1] - Previous month's factory orders revised upwards from 82% to 83%, marking the second-largest increase in history dating back to 1956 [2] - Excluding transportation, factory orders increased by 04%, exceeding expectations following an upward revision from 210 to 310 last month [2] Durable Goods - Durable goods orders revised downwards from -93% to -94%, representing a historically significant decrease since 1992 [3] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased by 210 [3] - Aircraft orders significantly influenced the fluctuations in durable goods orders over the past two months [4] Shipments & Capital Spending - Orders decreased by 08%, the largest decline since April of this year when it was -15% [4] - This decline in orders is a negative indicator for capital spending [5] - Shipments increased by 03%, largely as expected [5] Interest Rates & Market Equilibrium - Interest rates remain stable, with the 2-year rate at 369 and the 10-year rate at 421 [5] - The market appears to be in equilibrium, awaiting further developments in the labor market and decisions from the Federal Reserve [6]

Factory Orders & Durable Goods - Factory orders for May increased by 82%, a significant surge [1] - The prior month's figure was revised from -37% to -39% [2] - Excluding transportation, factory orders increased by 210%, indicating aircraft orders significantly contributed to the overall growth [2] - Durable goods orders remained at 164%, primarily due to aircraft orders [3] - Core capital goods orders (non-defense excluding aircraft) increased by 17%, the second-highest number of the year [3] - Shipments versus orders decreased slightly from 05% to 04% [3] ISM Services - The ISM Services headline figure was 508%, the highest since April's 516% [4] - Prices paid decreased to 675%, the lowest since April's 651%, but still a substantial figure compared to previous months [4] - New orders rose to 513%, indicating a return to expansion [5] - Employment within the ISM Services sector contracted, falling from 507% to 472%, comparable to March's 462% [5] Market Reaction & Outlook - Yields and equities are up, reflecting a positive market response to the economic data [6] - The upcoming week will be dynamic due to Treasury supply events (3s, 10s, and 30s) [6]