Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has shown favorable trends, with GDP revised to 3.8% for the second quarter and personal consumption expenditures increasing from 1.6% to 2.5% [2] - Durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 2.9% instead of the anticipated decline of 0.5%, while core capital goods also increased by 6% [2] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have improved, dropping to 218,000, which is a positive trend compared to previous weeks where claims were above 260,000 [3] Government Spending and Economic Growth - Despite a decrease in government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.2%, and real gross output rose by 1.2% [4] - The economy is showing resilience and growth even as government involvement diminishes [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - There is a wide range of opinions among Federal Reserve speakers regarding the economy and interest rates, with some advocating for lower Fed funds rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to market volatility, suggesting that the market may be reacting to perceived high valuations [9] Market Reactions - The market's decline, despite strong economic data, may be attributed to profit-taking and reactions to Fed comments [9]

Labor Market - Job openings in July came in at 7,181,000, lower than the expected 7,400,000, marking the smallest job openings number since the end of 2020 [1] Factory Orders - Factory orders for July met expectations at -13%, the strongest number since May [2] - Factory orders excluding transportation also met expectations, up 610 [2] Durable Goods - Final durable goods orders for July remained at -28%, a weak number [3] - June durable goods orders were -94%, the worst since April 2020, following a 165% increase prior to that, the best since 2014, indicating a tug-of-war possibly related to tariffs [3][4] - Transportation orders excluding air decreased from 11% mid-month to 1% [4] - Capital good orders non-defense excluding air, a proxy for capital spending, remained at 11%, the best number since May when it was up almost 2% [4][5] - Shipments were about 07% (3/4 of 1%), consistent with the mid-month read [5] Bond Market - The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 422%, down four basis points, and the 2-year Treasury yield is at 361%, down three basis points [5] - The 10-year Treasury yield has been in a consolidated range between 420% and 433% [6]

Factory Orders & Revisions - June factory orders declined by 48%, the weakest since January 2024 [1] - Previous month's factory orders revised upwards from 82% to 83%, marking the second-largest increase in history dating back to 1956 [2] - Excluding transportation, factory orders increased by 04%, exceeding expectations following an upward revision from 210 to 310 last month [2] Durable Goods - Durable goods orders revised downwards from -93% to -94%, representing a historically significant decrease since 1992 [3] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased by 210 [3] - Aircraft orders significantly influenced the fluctuations in durable goods orders over the past two months [4] Shipments & Capital Spending - Orders decreased by 08%, the largest decline since April of this year when it was -15% [4] - This decline in orders is a negative indicator for capital spending [5] - Shipments increased by 03%, largely as expected [5] Interest Rates & Market Equilibrium - Interest rates remain stable, with the 2-year rate at 369 and the 10-year rate at 421 [5] - The market appears to be in equilibrium, awaiting further developments in the labor market and decisions from the Federal Reserve [6]

First, let's get some breaking uh economic data just crossed. Rick Santelli has that for us. Rick.Yes. And there's a lot of it. If we look at the factory orders, durable goods, let's start there.Factory orders for May up 8.2%. Up 8.2%. I have five years here. I don't have a higher number. That is a huge number.And that follows a slightly revised minus 3.7% that moves to minus 3.9%. We started out the year in single digits. It certainly seems though this is telling us that all the trade pulled forward may in ...