Core Insights - JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth has reaffirmed Amazon.com as his "Best Idea" in the U.S. e-commerce sector, citing significant market share gains and strong delivery execution [1] - Amazon's sales growth and expanding Prime ecosystem are outpacing the broader market, positioning the company for long-term dominance [1] E-commerce Growth Projections - Anmuth forecasts U.S. e-commerce growth of 4.6% year-over-year in Q3, 4.4% in Q4, and 6.4% in 2026 [2] - Amazon's U.S. GMV (excluding physical stores) is expected to grow 8% year-over-year in Q3, 9% in Q4, and 8% in 2026 [2] - Long-term, U.S. e-commerce penetration could rise from approximately 23% in 2024 to over 40% [2] Market Performance - U.S. e-commerce sales grew 5.3% year-over-year in Q2, down from 5.6% in Q1, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of market share gains [4] - Amazon's U.S. e-commerce share increased by 202 basis points year-over-year to 46.8% in Q2, with projections of 47.4% in Q3 (+163bps), 49.2% in Q4 (+221bps), and 48.2% in 2026 (+78bps) [4] - Global 1P sales accelerated to 10% foreign-exchange-neutral year-over-year from 6% in Q1, while global 3P sales spiked 10% foreign-exchange-neutral year-over-year from 7% in Q1 [4] - There was a 30% year-over-year growth in U.S. same-day or one-day delivery units [4]

Company Performance - MercadoLibre has shown impressive performance with a revenue increase of 64% and gross merchandise volume growth of 40% [5] - Unique buyers increased by 25% year over year, contributing to the growth in gross merchandise volume [4] - The operating margin expanded from 12.2% to 12.9%, indicating improved profitability [5] Market Opportunities - The company holds only 5% of the total retail market in Latin America, suggesting significant growth potential as e-commerce penetration increases [9] - The offline retail market still dominates at 85%, providing a large opportunity for MercadoLibre to capture more market share [9] - The fintech sector is also expanding, with assets under management increasing by 103%, indicating strong engagement in financial services [8] Strategic Initiatives - MercadoLibre has launched the Mercado Play App, which offers 15,000 hours of free content and is expected to drive growth in advertising revenue [10] - The company is focusing on groceries, which increased by 65% year over year, enhancing customer retention and repeat purchases [6] - Management is exploring deeper involvement in streaming and full banking services, with plans for a bank charter in Mexico [12] Stock Valuation - Following the strong first-quarter results, MercadoLibre's stock has risen 42% in 2025, outperforming the broader market [13] - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 36 and a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 17, which are considered reasonable for a high-growth stock [13] - The company has a proven track record, substantial cash reserves, and increasing profits, making it an attractive investment option [14]