EV/EBITDA SOTP valuation
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SK 海力士:上行催化显现,开启存储新时代,估值倍数迎新变化
2026-01-28 03:02
Summary of SK Hynix Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SK Hynix (000660.KS) - **Industry**: Memory Semiconductors Key Points Industry Trends - The memory market is transitioning towards **semi-customization**, requiring customers to negotiate and sign contracts at least a year before delivery [2][3] - The most notable product in this shift is **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)**, with expectations that even commodity memory will become increasingly customized post-2028 due to AI adoption [2] Financial Projections - **2026 Operating Profit (OP)** is projected at **W150 trillion**, a 33% increase from previous estimates, driven by robust demand in AI capital expenditures [4] - **Target Price (TP)** raised to **W1,400,000** from **W900,000**, indicating a potential upside of **90.2%** from the current price of **W736,000** [6][10] Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach is shifting from **Price-to-Book (PBR)** to **EV/EBITDA SOTP** to better reflect the profit growth outlook for customized memory products [3] Earnings Summary - **2023 Net Profit**: -W9,206 million - **2024 Net Profit**: W19,789 million (EPS growth of **314.9%**) - **2025 Net Profit**: W42,200 million (EPS growth of **113.3%**) - **2026 Net Profit**: W114,779 million (EPS growth of **172.0%**) [5] ASP and Shipment Growth - **2026 Global DRAM/NAND Average Selling Price (ASP)** expected to grow by **120%** and **90%** YoY, respectively [4][11] - **DRAM Shipment Growth** projected at **24.4%** for 2025 and **21.0%** for 2026 [11] - **NAND Shipment Growth** expected to be **17%** in 2025 and **29%** in 2026 [11] Market Capitalization - Current market capitalization stands at **W535.81 trillion** (approximately **US$370.45 billion**) [6] Additional Insights - The shift towards semi-customization necessitates a new valuation methodology to capture the future value of the memory industry effectively [2] - The emergence of customized memory products is likened to a foundry-like business model, similar to that of TSMC [3] Conclusion - The strategic shift towards semi-customization in the memory market, combined with robust financial projections and a revised valuation methodology, positions SK Hynix favorably for future growth and investment opportunities.