So it feels like there's a lot riding maybe not just on these numbers but on Tesla execution generally. I mean the shares have doubled since last April but they've kind of gone sideways. It kind of tread water since September.So what in your view would sort of move the needle more substantially in in terms of these numbers. >> Yeah. In our view, it's all about riskreward.And given the runup that the stock had had uh really since last April, um you know, caused us to go to a sell last fall, um we just felt l ...

Core Insights - The global light vehicle market showed mixed performance in November, with various regions experiencing different trends in sales and selling rates [4][5]. Western Europe - The Western Europe light vehicle market remained broadly flat in November, with sales reaching 1.09 million units and a selling rate of 14.4 million units/year [1]. - Year-to-date sales stand at 12.2 million units, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [1]. - Spain emerged as the strongest market, while Germany showed modest growth, contrasting with flat or weak results in France, Italy, and the UK [1]. Canada - Canadian light vehicle sales totaled an estimated 140,000 units in November, down by 6.2% year-on-year, with a selling rate of 1.79 million units/year [2]. - The decline in sales is attributed to increasing monthly loan payments, indicating cost pressures on buyers [2]. Mexico - In Mexico, sales decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to 155,000 units, but the selling rate improved to 1.71 million units/year from 1.63 million units/year in October [2]. United States - US light vehicle sales fell by 5.8% year-on-year in November to 1.29 million units, with an annualized selling rate of 15.8 million units/year [3]. - The decline was influenced by the removal of EV tax credits and economic concerns, although the market performed relatively well under the circumstances [3]. - Average transaction prices were $46,205, down by $207 month-on-month, but up by 2.0% year-on-year [3]. Global Overview - The global light vehicle selling rate remained strong at 95 million units/year, slightly below October's result, with total sales of 8.1 million units globally, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decline [5]. - Year-to-date sales reached 83.6 million vehicles, up 4% from the same period in 2024 [5]. Eastern Europe - The light vehicle selling rate in Eastern Europe was consistent with October's result at 5.0 million units/year [6]. - Russia's market cooled with a 17% month-on-month decline but was still up 0.8% year-on-year [6]. - Turkey's market grew for the ninth consecutive month, with sales totaling 105,000 units in November, and year-to-date sales up 11% from 2024 [6]. China - The Chinese passenger vehicle market fell 6.4% year-on-year, although the selling rate remains strong [7]. - The market is expected to maintain a strong selling rate in December, capping a year of impressive growth [7][8]. Japan - Japanese light vehicle sales dropped 5.2% year-on-year to 367,000 units, marking five consecutive months of decline [9]. - The market's recovery is hindered by lower consumer spending due to higher financing repayment rates [9]. South Korea - Korean light vehicle sales edged up 0.5% year-on-year to 146,000 units in November, with a selling rate of 1.75 million units/year [10]. South America - Brazilian light vehicle sales totaled 227,000 units in November, down by 5.4% year-on-year, but the selling rate increased to 2.84 million units/year [11]. - In Argentina, sales totaled 32,900 units, down by 3.4% year-on-year, marking the first decline since July 2024 [12].

Core Insights - Tesla reported a strong Q3 2025 earnings with a 12% top-line growth, driven by the Energy Generation & Storage and Services & Other segments [1] Financial Performance - The 12% growth in revenue indicates robust performance across multiple segments, particularly in Energy Generation & Storage and Services & Other [1] Market Outlook - The early phaseout of EV tax credits at the end of September 2025 may lead to potential selling pressure on Tesla's stock [1]

Core Insights - Ford Motor is retracting a program that permitted dealers to provide a $7,500 tax credit on electric vehicle (EV) leases following the expiration of the federal credit subsidy on September 30 [1] Company Summary - The decision to walk back the tax credit program indicates a shift in Ford's strategy regarding EV leasing incentives [1] Industry Summary - The expiration of the federal credit subsidy may impact the overall EV leasing market, as dealers and manufacturers reassess their incentive structures in light of changing federal policies [1]

EV Tax Credit Impact - Loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit is a significant concern [1] - The company's actions don't fully offset the loss of the tax credit [2] - The removal of the tax credit is seen as a setback for climate and the environment [3] Market and Consumer Impact - Concerns that the company's strategy cannibalizes other models due to affordability issues [2] - The car's cost, around $700 per month plus insurance, limits its accessibility to new consumer markets [2] - The strategy is perceived as a reaction to the loss of the tax credit rather than attracting new consumers [3] Responsibility and Blame - The loss of the EV tax credit is attributed to Elon's support for anti-climate views [3] - Elon is directly blamed for the negative consequences of losing the tax credit [4]

Core Insights - Tesla has launched budget-friendly versions of its Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, priced at $39,990 and $36,990 respectively, to address declining sales and increasing competition [1][4] - The new standard models have a range of 321 miles (516 km) but feature less acceleration compared to premium versions, and are available for order with deliveries expected between December 2025 and January 2026 [2] - The standard models lack certain features such as Autosteer and rear passenger touchscreens, and have made some design changes to reduce costs [3] Pricing and Market Strategy - The introduction of these affordable models comes after the cancellation of a planned $25,000 EV, with concerns that these cheaper options may affect sales of existing models [4] - The expiration of US EV tax credits led to a $7,500 increase in EV prices, impacting sales dynamics, with expectations of a slowdown unless more affordable options are available [5] - CEO Elon Musk emphasized the importance of affordability, stating that many potential buyers lack sufficient funds, hence the need for lower-priced vehicles [5]

Core Insights - The expiration of federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credits is significantly impacting the EV market, particularly affecting Tesla, which has seen its shares drop 45% in 2025, reaching a low of $214 in April [1] - Tesla reported a 16% decline in quarterly sales for the second consecutive quarter, with year-over-year declines in revenue and vehicle deliveries [3][9] - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company may face several "rough quarters" due to tariff-related cost increases and the impending expiration of the tax credit [4] Tax Credit Details - Federal EV tax credits, introduced in 2009, currently provide $7,500 for new EV purchases and $4,000 for used vehicles [6] - These credits are set to expire on September 30, following the passage of President Trump's legislation, although consumers can still receive the credit if their vehicle is delivered after this date, provided the purchase occurs before the deadline [7] - In 2024, the U.S. government spent over $2 billion in federal tax credits for more than 300,000 EV purchases, suggesting a potential spike in sales before the expiration [8]

Core Insights - Rivian is facing challenges due to evolving policies affecting EV production in the US, which are expected to impact results and cash flow [1][2] - The company has revised its anticipated EBITDA losses for the 2025 fiscal year to a range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [1] - Rivian's CFO indicated that total sales in regulatory credits are expected to be around $160 million, nearly half of the prior outlook of $300 million [2] Financial Performance - Rivian reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, slightly exceeding Wall Street estimates of $1.28 billion, but operating losses were higher than anticipated with total operating expenses of $908 million [12] - The stock fell about 5% after trading hours following the earnings report [13] Production and Cost Outlook - Production costs are expected to increase due to recent policy changes, with tariffs anticipated to have a net impact of a couple thousand dollars per unit for the remainder of 2025 [3] - Rivian is on track to deliver its R2 model, a midsize SUV priced between $45,000 and $50,000, expected next year [10] - The company has secured contracts with suppliers to ensure that the cost of making the R2 will be about half that of the R1 model [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has recently been affected by political tensions between CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump, leading to significant volatility in share prices, including a decline of over 5% ahead of a weak Q2 delivery report [1][9]. Group 1: Political Tensions - The conflict began when Musk criticized Trump's new tax bill, calling it a "disgusting abomination," which prompted Trump to label Musk as "crazy" and suggest a review of government subsidies for Tesla and SpaceX [2][3]. - Following Musk's continued criticism of the tax bill, Trump highlighted that Musk may receive more subsidies than anyone else and suggested that without them, Musk would have to shut down operations [3]. Group 2: Impact on Electric Vehicle (EV) Tax Credits - Trump's tax bill proposes the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV credit, which is crucial for making Tesla vehicles more affordable in the U.S. This change could negatively impact demand, which is already facing pressure from increasing competition [3][4]. - The bill includes a "special rule" that preserves tax credits for automakers that haven't sold 200,000 EVs by the end of 2025, which excludes Tesla, GM, and Ford, thereby favoring newer companies like Rivian and Lucid [5][9]. Group 3: Energy Incentives and Growth - Tesla's solar and battery storage units benefit from federal tax breaks, and the removal of these incentives could hinder growth in one of the company's fastest-expanding sectors [4][7]. - Without favorable policies and tax incentives, Tesla's ambitions in solar and battery storage may face significant challenges, impacting its growth strategy [6][7]. Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Tesla shares have declined approximately 25%, while the industry has seen a 20% decline; in contrast, Ford's shares have increased by 14.6% and GM's have decreased by only 2.6% [10]. - Tesla's forward price-to-sales ratio stands at 9.18, significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a valuation concern, especially when compared to GM's 0.29 and Ford's 0.28 [11].

Industry Leadership & Innovation - Elon Musk's companies have propelled the U S to lead in multiple industries [1] - This leadership is expected to grow further [1] Political & Economic Implications - The feud between Trump and Elon Musk is considered absurd [1] - The dispute involves EV tax credits [1]