Accessible version China Property (H/A) Investor feedback: "wait-and-see" to skepticism; FY25 earnings preview Price Objective Change From "wait-and-see" to skepticism on policy outlook Investor feedback to our sector outlook report (YA report dated 08 January 2026), in which we expressed our contrarian positive view on the sector, has ranged from a broadly "wait- and-see" stance to skepticism. The strong performance of other sectors (especially tech) has also reduced any perceived urgency to reposition. Ke ...

Core Viewpoint - The Q3FY26 earnings season is expected to show significant profit growth, with brokerages divided on whether this indicates a sustained recovery or a temporary improvement [11] Earnings Projections - Emkay Global projects a 14.5% PAT growth driven by festive season demand and GST rate cuts, with BSE500 expected to grow 14% compared to 8.5% for Nifty [1] - JM Financial forecasts a 9.8% YoY PAT growth for Nifty in Q3, up from 8.4% in Q2, with notable growth in telecom (64%), autos (33%), and industrials (31%) [2] - Motilal Oswal anticipates 20 sectors to achieve double-digit growth, with telecom profits expected to increase 2.6x, cement up 66%, real estate up 64%, and capital goods rising 24% [3] Financial Sector Outlook - Axis Securities expects banks to deliver approximately 12.4% YoY credit growth, with management optimism around growth continuing [6][12] - Motilal Oswal forecasts financials, particularly NBFC-Lending, to grow 26% YoY, while private banks and PSBs are expected to contribute moderately [6][12] - Bernstein maintains an "overweight" stance on financials, telecom, and select consumption sectors, while introducing real estate as an overweight [6] Auto Sector Performance - The auto sector is projected to perform strongly, with Motilal Oswal forecasting a 25% YoY growth, benefiting from GST rate cuts and stable commodity prices [7][12] - Axis Securities highlights the auto sector's healthy earnings trajectory supported by favorable regulatory norms [7] Export-Oriented Sectors - Export-oriented sectors are facing challenges, with Axis Securities noting cautious client spending and pricing pressures as key risks for IT services, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [8][12] - Nuvama anticipates weak profits in export sectors but strong performance in industrials and domestic autos [8][12] - Emkay warns of ongoing trade-deal uncertainties affecting export-oriented sectors, though recovery is expected in H2CY26 driven by improved retail credit flow [8][12] Stock Recommendations - Axis Securities recommends stocks including IDFC First Bank, Bajaj Auto, and UltraTech Cement [8] - JM Financial lists stocks such as Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, and Maruti Suzuki [9] - Motilal Oswal suggests stocks like SBI, Titan, and Infosys [10]

Core Insights - Centene Corporation is showing early signs of stabilization after a challenging first half of 2025, with shares rising 16.3% over the past three months, outperforming the industry's 7.3% decline [1][8] - The company faces ongoing challenges, including increased operating expenses and a rising health benefits ratio, which has impacted profitability [6][7] Financial Performance - Operating expenses increased by 5.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and surged by 26.5% in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to higher medical costs [6] - The health benefits ratio rose from 87.7% in 2023 to 92.7% by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a squeeze on margins [6] - Adjusted net margin fell from 2.3% to 0.5% in Q3 2025, highlighting profitability challenges [7] - Long-term debt stands at $17.5 billion, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 45.51%, above the industry average of 40.23% [7] Market Position and Membership Trends - Centene's commercial membership is growing, with a 29.5% increase in marketplace membership in the first nine months of 2025, which typically offers better margins than government programs [11] - However, declines in Medicare and traditional Medicaid enrollment are weighing on total membership, and competition in government-sponsored programs is intensifying [9] Earnings Estimates and Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $2 per share, reflecting a 72.1% year-over-year decline, but a rebound to $2.94 is expected in 2026, representing a 46.6% recovery [10] - Revenues are projected to rise by 18.5% in 2025 before a slight decline of 0.3% in 2026 [10] Valuation and Future Outlook - Centene trades at a forward P/E of 15.11X, slightly below the industry average of 16.16X, indicating a balanced valuation [12] - Management anticipates improvements in Medicare Star ratings and benefits from demographic trends, such as an aging population and rising chronic disease prevalence [14] - Despite near-term pressures, the company's expanding commercial business and expectations of earnings recovery in 2026 support a longer-term positive outlook [15]

Core Viewpoint - Antique projects CY26 as a potential turning point for Indian equities, anticipating a recovery in corporate profits and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows, with a target of 29,500 for the Nifty index, implying a 13% upside from current levels [1][13] Earnings Outlook - Nifty earnings are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 16% over FY26–28, significantly higher than the 7% CAGR recorded over FY24–26 [1][13] - The brokerage emphasizes an earnings-led market recovery rather than relying on multiple expansions, with corporate earnings positively correlated with wholesale price inflation and nominal GDP growth, both expected to normalize in FY27 [3][13] - A broad-based recovery in profits is anticipated, particularly in sectors such as electronics manufacturing services, telecom, industrials, and retail, while oil and gas, IT services, power utilities, FMCG, and automobiles are expected to lag [3][13] Capital Expenditure and Financials - The capital expenditure theme is expected to rebound after two years of slowdown, with favorable conditions across global monetary policies and domestic support [7][13] - Financials are a core focus, with expectations for banks to enter an earnings upcycle in CY26, supported by a strong domestic macro backdrop and the nearing end of the rate-cut cycle [8][13] - Public sector banks are favored due to comparable growth metrics to private lenders while trading at a 45% discount [8][13] Consumption Sector and Mid/Small-Cap Stocks - The broader consumption sector is viewed with caution due to high valuations and competitive pressures, although select discretionary segments like alcoholic beverages and hotels are seen positively [9][13] - Mid- and small-cap stocks are expected to show earnings growth that outpaces the Nifty over the next two to three years, driven by domestic cyclicals and increased capex activity [10][13] Stock Picks and Market Flows - Top large-cap stock picks include ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Hindustan Aeronautics, while mid-cap and small-cap preferences include Siemens Energy India and Chalet Hotels, respectively [11][13] - After a significant outflow of $17.5 billion from Indian equities in CY25, Antique anticipates stabilization and potential revival of FPI flows in CY26, supported by low FPI ownership and reasonable valuations [11][13] - Despite trading at a premium to historical averages, valuations are expected to be sustained due to lower bond yields and sectoral divergence, with many Nifty 500 stocks having corrected over 20% from their highs [12][13]

Core Insights - UPS has experienced significant changes in recent months, with its shares facing pressure due to increased competition in the Air Freight and Logistics sector and challenges with USPS [1] Company Overview - UPS is a prominent player in the Industrials sector, particularly in Air Freight and Logistics, which has seen rising competition impacting its stock performance [1] Market Dynamics - The company has been under pressure for years, indicating a challenging market environment that includes competition and operational difficulties [1]

Across their outlooks, HSBC, The brokerages broadly agree that falling inflation, Reserve Bank of India rate cuts, stable domestic liquidity and policy support for consumption and capital expenditure are setting the stage for a recovery. Financials, consumer discretionary and industrials dominate the opportunity set, while telecom, autos and select real-estate plays add depth. Defensives such as staples and healthcare appear more selectively, reflecting a market that is expected to reward conviction rather ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analyst Steven Fisher maintains a Buy rating and a price target of $535 on Deere (DE) shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance despite a slightly lower initial FY26 earnings guidance midpoint [1] Group 1: Earnings and Guidance - The Q4 results and outlook for Deere were described as "directionally consistent" with UBS's expectations, establishing 2026 as the agricultural bottom [1] - The initial FY26 earnings guidance midpoint is slightly lower than UBS's previous model, attributed mainly to a weak Q1 in North America [1] - UBS expresses increased confidence in 2026 as the earnings bottom and anticipates a recovery in 2027 following the report [1]

Core Insights - Wall Street is experiencing a solid earnings season, with strong sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth indicating a continuation of the bull market into next year [1][8] - Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist highlights the importance of positive revenue surprises and EPS growth as key indicators of market strength [3][5] Sales and Earnings Growth - The sales growth rate of 2.3% is approximately double the typical rate of 1.1%, suggesting businesses are outperforming expectations in terms of sales [4] - The median companies in the Russell 3000 index achieved an 11% EPS growth, nearly double the second-quarter rate of 6%, indicating broad profit expansion across various sectors [5][6] Market Outlook - Analysts believe the current trends in sales and EPS growth support the view of a "rolling recovery" in earnings, with expectations for continued strength into 2026 [6][8] - The recent trade truce between the US and China has alleviated some trade tensions, which is seen as a positive development for the markets [7] Monetary Policy Considerations - There is uncertainty regarding interest rates, influenced by recent comments from Jerome Powell, which may affect the near-term monetary policy landscape [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Astral Foods anticipates a rebound in earnings per share (EPS) for the full year, driven by a strong recovery in the second half of the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - EPS is expected to increase by 7% to 17%, reaching between R20.96 ($1.23) and R22.91, compared to R19.59 from the previous year [1]. - Headline earnings per share (HEPS) are projected to rise by 5% to 15%, estimated between R20.16 and R22.08, compared to R19.20 in the previous financial year [2]. Factors Contributing to Recovery - The recovery in the second half is attributed to increased broiler slaughter numbers and higher poultry sales compared to the previous year [2]. - Improved per-unit production costs due to higher production volumes and a recovery in poultry sales after a period of price deflation [2][3]. - Higher internal feed sales linked to increased broiler production and a year-on-year rise in external feed volumes contributed to the recovery [3]. Operational Insights - Astral Foods focused on rebuilding its balance sheet and successfully restored a targeted surplus cash position throughout the year [3]. - The company plans to publish final results around 17 November [3]. Previous Performance Context - In May, Astral Foods reported a decline in first-half profits due to lower poultry prices and higher feed costs, with revenue rising 3.5% to R10.7 billion ($593.5 million) [4]. - The poultry division's revenue increased by 1.5% to R8.8 billion, but it experienced an operating loss of R26 million, compared to a profit of R284 million the previous year [5].

Core Insights - UnitedHealth has faced challenges this year due to unexpectedly high medical costs, resulting in a significant stock decline of over 27% year to date and missing earnings expectations for the first time in over a decade [3][4] - The company's third quarter results showed a revenue increase of 12% year over year, totaling $113.2 billion, although net income fell by 61% to $2.3 billion [4] - UnitedHealth's CEO indicated progress in the company's turnaround strategy, which includes executive reshuffling and cost control measures [6][8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached $113.2 billion, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the previous year [4] - Net income decreased to $2.3 billion, a 61% decline year over year, but still exceeded analysts' expectations [4] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings of at least $16.25 per share for the current year [7] Strategic Outlook - UnitedHealth is focusing on operational improvements and prudent pricing strategies, aiming for solid earnings growth in the upcoming year [8] - The company is preparing for significant membership losses in 2026, expecting to lose about 1 million Medicare Advantage members and reduce Affordable Care Act enrollment by approximately two-thirds [8]