July 22, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific 2Q25 Pre-announcements: Continued Improvement for MSCI China and A-shares A-share 2Q25 pre-announcements improved to -4.8% and MSCI China rose to +6.8%, outperforming both 2Q24 and 4Q24 levels. Pre-announcement was led by Financials and Materials, with Real Estate and Software lagging. Nine stocks to own and six to avoid based on our screening. As of July 21, 2025, 1,528 A-share companies (~30% by number of companies, ~25% by market cap) had re ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter GAAP losses per common share were $1.90, while distributable earnings showed a loss of $0.03. Excluding realized losses on asset sales, distributable earnings were $0.23 per common share, representing a 7.1% return on average stockholders' equity [32] - Book value per share decreased to $10.61 from $12.59 in the previous quarter, primarily due to an increase in combined CECL and valuation allowance [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core portfolio contracted by $1.3 billion, with new production limited to $485 million, resulting in an 840 basis points contribution to distributable ROE before realized losses [15] - Small business lending operations experienced significant origination growth of 1.7%, with fourth quarter originations of $350 million, capping a record year of $1.2 billion [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CRE loan portfolio totaled $7.2 billion, split into 83% core and 17% non-core assets. The core portfolio has a contractual yield of 8% with a 93% pay rate [13] - 60-day plus delinquencies in the core portfolio were only 2%, with an average risk rating of 2.2% [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has undertaken aggressive actions to reset the balance sheet, including a $284 million combined CECL and valuation allowances, marking 100% of non-performing loans to current values [9] - The strategy involves bifurcating the CRE portfolio into core and non-core assets to enhance transparency and track asset management strategies [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects recovery in net interest margin and ROE over the succeeding year, with a focus on aggressive liquidation of the non-core portfolio [10][29] - The company anticipates originating between $1 billion and $1.5 billion of new production in lower middle market CRE loans in 2025 [15] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with $185 million of unrestricted cash and has raised $350 million of corporate financing across two transactions [41] - The company plans to execute a $150 million share repurchase program to enhance shareholder returns [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will cash earnings cover the new dividend level? - Management expects to cover the dividend approximately 1.5 times over the course of the year, with earnings ramping up as the year progresses [46] Question: What is the rationale behind the UDF acquisition? - The acquisition is viewed as highly accretive on an EPS basis, with a strong historical performance of the loans involved [78] Question: How does the company plan to address 2026 maturities? - The company plans to access markets for refinancing and has already started addressing some maturities with recent senior secured notes [72] Question: What are the credit trends in the SBA business? - The company has seen strong credit trends in its SBA portfolio, with 60-plus delinquencies remaining at a moderate level of 2.8% [89]