Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

The Philippine central bank is allowing the dollar-peso exchange rate to be determined by market forces, confident that the local currency is backed by favorable economic fundamentals https://t.co/sVLG4glqmz ...

Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's recent strength suggests underlying fundamentals remain strong [1] - This strength persists despite a potentially weak economy [1] - Challenges to the Federal Reserve's autonomy have not undermined the dollar [1] Source - Barclays' analysis supports the dollar's resilience [1]

Economic Fundamentals - Currency depreciation causes include economic fundamentals and inflation [1] Impact on Trade and Investment - Currency depreciation potentially impacts exports and investor confidence [1]

Market Trends - Red flags are emerging in China's onshore stocks [1] - The recent rally in Chinese stocks is primarily driven by liquidity rather than improved economic fundamentals [1]

Investment & Economy - India secured a higher investment grade rating from S&P Global Ratings [1] - The improved rating reflects stronger economic fundamentals in India [1] - The upgrade enhances India's attractiveness to foreign investors [1]

Market Efficiency & Revenue Focus - The market is trending towards efficiency, with revenue becoming a key metric for asset valuation [1] - Traditional allocators are increasingly focused on revenue when evaluating crypto protocols [1] - Economic fundamentals are becoming a driving factor in setting a base price for assets, moving away from purely speculative trading [5] Protocol Performance & Challenges - Out of approximately 300 Layer 1s and Layer 2s, only about 10 have a TVL exceeding $1 billion [1] - A similar number of protocols have a daily protocol fee exceeding $200 thousand [1] - Many protocols trade at price-to-sales ratios above 1000, indicating potential overvaluation [1] - Incentives to contribute code, talent, or resources to late-stage protocols are lacking compared to earlier projects [2] Niche Markets & Revenue Generation - Founders are focusing on niche, vertical markets with higher margins [3] - Maple Finance generates roughly the same monthly earnings as Aave, despite a significantly smaller loan book ($1.2 billion vs $16 billion), by focusing on corporate pools of capital and Bitcoin yield [3] - AethirCloud has generated approximately $9 million in fees on revenue of about $78 million by offering a distributed network of GPUs for specific use cases [4] Alternative Strategies & Revenue Examples - Some entities are focusing on generating revenue without tokenization [6] - AxiomExchange has generated nearly $140 million in revenue year-to-date [6] - Phantom has surpassed $394 million in cumulative fees [6] Market Divergence - The market is witnessing a divergence between the old crypto playbook and economically sound assets [7] - There's a shift away from perception games towards having a base case for asset valuation [7]