Donald Trump said he expects his Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates if the economy is doing well, the latest signal that the president is eager for a nominee committed to borrowing cost cuts as he nears an announcement of his choice to replace Jerome Powell. “I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever,” Trump said in a social media post Tuesday. “Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!” ...

Market Trends & Investment Decisions - As global trade tensions ease, Asia's policy reforms and domestic economic fundamentals will play a bigger role in investment decisions next year [1] Regional Focus - Money managers and analysts highlight the increasing importance of Asia in investment strategies [1]

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

The Philippine central bank is allowing the dollar-peso exchange rate to be determined by market forces, confident that the local currency is backed by favorable economic fundamentals https://t.co/sVLG4glqmz ...

Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's recent strength suggests underlying fundamentals remain strong [1] - This strength persists despite a potentially weak economy [1] - Challenges to the Federal Reserve's autonomy have not undermined the dollar [1] Source - Barclays' analysis supports the dollar's resilience [1]

Economic Fundamentals - Currency depreciation causes include economic fundamentals and inflation [1] Impact on Trade and Investment - Currency depreciation potentially impacts exports and investor confidence [1]

Market Trends - Red flags are emerging in China's onshore stocks [1] - The recent rally in Chinese stocks is primarily driven by liquidity rather than improved economic fundamentals [1]

Investment & Economy - India secured a higher investment grade rating from S&P Global Ratings [1] - The improved rating reflects stronger economic fundamentals in India [1] - The upgrade enhances India's attractiveness to foreign investors [1]

Market Efficiency & Revenue Focus - The market is trending towards efficiency, with revenue becoming a key metric for asset valuation [1] - Traditional allocators are increasingly focused on revenue when evaluating crypto protocols [1] - Economic fundamentals are becoming a driving factor in setting a base price for assets, moving away from purely speculative trading [5] Protocol Performance & Challenges - Out of approximately 300 Layer 1s and Layer 2s, only about 10 have a TVL exceeding $1 billion [1] - A similar number of protocols have a daily protocol fee exceeding $200 thousand [1] - Many protocols trade at price-to-sales ratios above 1000, indicating potential overvaluation [1] - Incentives to contribute code, talent, or resources to late-stage protocols are lacking compared to earlier projects [2] Niche Markets & Revenue Generation - Founders are focusing on niche, vertical markets with higher margins [3] - Maple Finance generates roughly the same monthly earnings as Aave, despite a significantly smaller loan book ($1.2 billion vs $16 billion), by focusing on corporate pools of capital and Bitcoin yield [3] - AethirCloud has generated approximately $9 million in fees on revenue of about $78 million by offering a distributed network of GPUs for specific use cases [4] Alternative Strategies & Revenue Examples - Some entities are focusing on generating revenue without tokenization [6] - AxiomExchange has generated nearly $140 million in revenue year-to-date [6] - Phantom has surpassed $394 million in cumulative fees [6] Market Divergence - The market is witnessing a divergence between the old crypto playbook and economically sound assets [7] - There's a shift away from perception games towards having a base case for asset valuation [7]