Welcome back. We want to turn now to the war in Ukraine. President Trump held a call today with Ukraine's President Zalinski and European leaders as the so-called coalition of the willing met today in Paris to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.Administration official telling NBC News President Trump urged Europe to stop buying Russian oil and increase economic pressure on China for helping fund Russia. NBC News White House correspondent Yamish Alendor joins me now. Yamich, thank you for pulling double ...

Economic Impact of War & Sanctions - Despite war and sanctions, Russia's economy has shown resilience, even outpacing some advanced nations in growth in 2024 [1][5] - Initial expectations of sanctions crippling the Russian economy, such as "turning the ruble to rubble," did not fully materialize [4] - Russia reoriented its economy by shifting export markets to China and India, primarily for fuel exports, mitigating the impact of sanctions [7] - The war has acted as a stimulus, with military spending increasing from approximately $50 billion to nearly $150 billion annually since 2022 [2][3] Financial Sustainability & Future Outlook - Russia is currently spending more than it earns, depleting its reserves to supplement its budget [9] - At the current rate of expenditure, Russia's reserves are projected to be depleted around 2030 [9] - Oil and gas sector contributes about 20% of Russia's GDP, but analysts warn that current spending levels are unsustainable [8] - Potential secondary sanctions, such as 100% tariffs on those buying Russian oil, could be catastrophic if major buyers like China and India cease purchases, as oil and gas revenues account for 1/3 to 1/2 of Russia's annual budget [10] Geopolitical & Economic Risks - Increased military spending has led to a decrease in unemployment, reaching a 30-year low [8] - While wage inflation has outpaced general inflation, improving the standard of living for Russians, this is considered unsustainable [12] - Experts anticipate Russia will maintain elevated defense spending even after a potential ceasefire, driven by perceived threats [13][14]

Geopolitical Risk & Diplomacy - Israel urges China to leverage its influence over Iran to curb its military and nuclear ambitions, emphasizing China's unique position due to Iran's economic reliance on Chinese oil procurement [1][6] - China, as a P5 Security Council member and IAEA participant, is encouraged to facilitate a diplomatic agreement where Iran abandons its nuclear military program in exchange for international benefits [11][7] - A settled agreement on Iran's nuclear program could lead to sanctions relief and economic prosperity for Iran, contingent on Iran making the correct decision to negotiate [10] Economic Leverage & Sanctions - China buys approximately 90% of Iran's oil, providing significant economic leverage to influence Iran's regional activities [11] - Revenues from Iranian oil sales are allegedly diverted to "malign activities" such as funding proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis, as well as the nuclear and ballistic missile programs [13][14] - Sanctions relief and positive trade relations could stabilize Iran's economy if it abandons its nuclear military ambitions [22] Iranian Threat & Regional Stability - Iran's pursuit of a military nuclear program is viewed as a threat to regional peace, particularly to Israel, with Iranian leaders openly calling for the "annihilation of the Jewish state" [3][16] - Destabilizing the Iranian economy could further destabilize the region, highlighting the need for a diplomatic solution that addresses Iran's nuclear ambitions and promotes economic stability [22] - The international community's focus should be on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, given its aggressive rhetoric and actions [20]