The German government is set to raise its economic forecasts, bringing official projections into line with those of the country’s leading research institutes, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/7V980VwoG8 ...

OTTAWA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada expects to release baseline projections for the economy and inflation with its monetary policy report in October, its summary of deliberations released on Wednesday showed. The central bank had stopped giving definitive estimates for Canada's economy from the second quarter and instead opted to lay out a range of projections based on how U.S. tariffs impact the economy. Governor Tiff Macklem had based the decision to pause baseline estimates on extreme uncer ...

The Fed is forecasting economic growth and falling unemployment, yet it is cutting interest rates—something usually seen in recessions. U.S. stocks hit a record high yesterday, and some Wall Street analysts are concerned that this all looks a bit frothy. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Summary of Economic Projections,” published this week, shows that the central bank believes the economy will grow through 2028. In June, their change in GDP estimate for 2025 was 1.4%. Now, it’s 1.6%. It’s even rosier for 202 ...

🇺🇸 NEXT WEEK’S FOMC IS GOING TO BE HUGE FOR CRYPTO.Not only could we see a rate cut, but also fresh economic projections and the Fed’s dot plot.That means we’ll get a clear picture of how many cuts they see this year and beyond. https://t.co/xVvMMF1Mv8 ...

Clearly, corporate America is expecting Fed cuts here, and it seems like we're all but certain we're going to see 25 basis points next Wednesday. But it's all about the messaging, isn't it. What tone do you expect that Jerome Powell will actually take at the press conference.I think he can get a good idea on the tone about the way they signaled the policy action. Chair Powell essentially told us that they would ease at his speech in Jackson Hole, but he wasn't really that explicit. Why.Because probably he h ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market has priced in many positives, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to disappoint next week [2] - The key focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the committee's rate guidance for the end of 2026; a convergence with the rates market is needed to avoid disappointment [3][4] - A weakening labor market is a defining macro characteristic, suggesting growth-side risks for the equity market and the need for a bond position [10][11] Investment Strategies - Broadening investment portfolios beyond tech is recommended, considering areas like small caps, energy, and international markets [6][7][8] - Small caps are poised to benefit from declining interest rates due to their floating rate and short-term debt structures, along with less regulation and more M&A activity [7] - Offsetting equity positions with a bond position (duration) is suggested, especially given the potential for a pullback in the second half of September [9] Interest Rate & Bond Market - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week [2][3] - The yield curve is positively sloped now, suggesting that rates across the curve should come down as the Fed starts its rate-cutting cycle, unlike the previous year when the yield curve was inverted [16][17] - Expect the 10-year Treasury yield to break below 4%, surprising many due to recency bias related to the bond market's reaction to previous rate cuts [18] Economic Indicators - Despite concerns about the labor market, other data points like GDP growth, company earnings, and consumer strength suggest a continued strong economy [13]

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]