Clearly, corporate America is expecting Fed cuts here, and it seems like we're all but certain we're going to see 25 basis points next Wednesday. But it's all about the messaging, isn't it. What tone do you expect that Jerome Powell will actually take at the press conference.I think he can get a good idea on the tone about the way they signaled the policy action. Chair Powell essentially told us that they would ease at his speech in Jackson Hole, but he wasn't really that explicit. Why.Because probably he h ...

Finishing up almost 2% this week, its longest winning streak since July 28th. Could the market keep climbing next week when the Fed is expected to cut rates. Or will this be a sell the news event.Well, let's bring in Pay Capital Management uh senior wealth adviser and CNBC contributor Courtney Garcia and 314 Research co-founder Warren Pies. It's great to have you both here. Warren, I'm going to kick off with you with that question.Is next week a sell the news event if the market's already expecting a 25 bas ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]