Economic Overview - In early 2024, China's economy shows steady growth with GDP reaching 949,746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, significantly higher than most countries globally [1] - Despite the positive GDP figures, there are underlying concerns such as weak national income growth, sluggish consumer demand, a persistently depressed real estate market, and a slow recovery of the real economy [1] Real Estate Market - Since 2022, national housing prices have been on a downward trend, with average declines exceeding 30% from peak levels, starting from second and third-tier cities and spreading to first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the market have had limited impact, and housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, ultimately aligning with residents' income levels and returning to their fundamental residential attributes [3] Banking Sector - Bank deposit rates have been continuously lowered since 2024, with the latest adjustment reaching 25 basis points, significantly higher than the usual 10-15 basis points [5] - This trend reflects banks' strategies to manage surging deposits by stimulating investment and consumption among residents while reducing financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [5] Employment Landscape - The job market for university graduates has become increasingly challenging, exacerbated by the pandemic's impact on businesses and a shrinking recruitment demand [7] - The number of graduates is on the rise, with 11.79 million expected in 2024 and an increase to 12.22 million in 2025, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance in the job market [7] Demographic Trends - The birth rate in China has been declining since the peak of 17.56 million newborns in 2017, dropping to 9.03 million in 2023, a decrease of over 40% [10] - The first half of 2024 saw only 4.33 million newborns, with projections indicating the total for the year will remain below 9 million, driven by high living costs, child-rearing expenses, and low willingness to have children [10] Rural-Urban Migration - There is a notable trend of rural workers returning to their hometowns, driven by high urban living costs and intense job competition, prompting a reevaluation of the rural-urban development gap [12]