So, what should you really be paying attention to. Joining us now with more is Chris Krueger. He is managing director of the Washington Research Group at TD Cowan.Always, always a must readad. So, Chris, you are dialed in as much as anybody. You're down there.Is this government shutdown going to end by the end of the week. >> Yes. Uh, it might even end probably ends tomorrow night.U, the House Rules Committee is is meeting uh in a couple hours. Uh the votes should start tomorrow around 400 p. m.Uh once the ...

LIVE S&P 500 Set to Open Down as Market Awaits Flurry of Data Last Updated: Updated 4 min ago Stock Rally Stalls as Market Awaits Flurry of Economic Data By Adam Clark Stock were set to open in the red on Tuesday after strong gains the previous day on the prospective reopening of the U.S. government. Markets are now bracing for a rush of economic data. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 33 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were falling 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures were dropping 0.4%. The Republica ...

Investors and Fed officials need to prepare for the release of crucial economic data as lawmakers take steps that could end the longest government shutdown in US history https://t.co/2sfPfeYUCE ...

The government shutdown is now 31 days old and there has been very little economic data coming from the government during that period. But there are some alternative sources that are providing labor and inflation statistics. For that we get to our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman.He's been searching for data high and low and he's come up with some pretty interesting things. Good morning Steve. >> Hey, good morning Becca.Yeah, we're able to put together a preliminary estimate of jobless claims. I'll ex ...

Inflation & Interest Rate - Headline inflation estimate is 31%, highest since February [1] - The market has largely priced in an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [2] - The key focus is whether tariffs are being passed on to higher goods prices, and what happens with services inflation [2][3] - There's a divide among Fed officials regarding concerns about the labor market versus the stickiness of inflation [5][6] - The Fed's guidance on future rates is expected to be limited due to a lack of comprehensive data [9] - A December rate cut is anticipated, especially if the government reopens and data becomes available [14][15] Economic Outlook - Workforce reductions are occurring across different parts of the economy [4] - AI investments are significantly powering the market, with the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicating almost 4% growth for the quarter [10] - The economy may be bifurcated, with growth driven by a few sectors and higher-income consumers, making it prone to shocks [11][12][13] - The labor market is expected to weaken, potentially driving more rate cuts into Q1 of the following year [15]

Economic Data & Policy - The Federal Reserve's access to timely economic information is being limited due to the federal shutdown, as they have stopped receiving private-sector jobs data from an independent provider [1]

Market Outlook - U.S. stock futures indicated a positive opening as Wall Street anticipates significant developments in the U.S.-China trade war, corporate earnings, and economic data [1] - President Trump's softened rhetoric on China contrasts with his previous aggressive stance, which may influence market sentiment [1][2] Trade War Developments - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to continue trade discussions ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping [4] - Recent comments from Trump, including "Don't worry about China," have led to a rebound in stock prices [2] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index report for September is expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual rise, up from 2.9% in August [5] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained stable at 4.011%, while the U.S. dollar showed mixed performance against the euro and yen [3] Corporate Earnings - The third-quarter earnings season is gaining momentum, with major companies like Netflix, Texas Instruments, Tesla, IBM, and Intel set to report their results [4][5] - Big banks have already reported strong earnings, setting a positive tone for the upcoming reports from tech companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Officials are divided regarding the economic outlook, and a lapse in funding has suspended data releases that could help reconcile these disagreements [1] Group 1 - The economic outlook remains contentious among officials, indicating a lack of consensus on future trends [1] - The suspension of data releases due to funding issues hampers the ability to address and resolve differing opinions on the economic situation [1]

Alternative Data Analysis - The private data serves as a supplement to governmental data, which is considered the gold standard [1] - The private data is more effective as a supplement rather than a replacement for primary data sources [1] - The effectiveness of private data varies across sectors, with better substitutes in the employment space compared to inflation and economic activity [1] - Different private data providers employ varying universes and levels of rigor in their data analysis [1] Economic Outlook and Data Concerns - The September employment report is considered a very important report for decision-making [2] - The September CPI and PPI reports are expected to be available [2] - Potential data collection disruptions could pose challenges, particularly concerning October data [2]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Uncertainty - The market perceives the Federal Reserve (Fed) as divided and cautious due to uncertainties surrounding inflation, labor market, government shutdown, and tariffs [1][2] - The Fed's debate needs resolution, which is a key focus for markets [3] - The Fed faces challenges in justifying policy moves without reliable economic data, especially given its data-dependent stance [5][6] - The Fed is considering a pause in policy adjustments due to data limitations caused by events like government shutdowns [5][6] - The Fed is aware of the debate surrounding the concentration of GDP growth in the AI sector but considers overall growth from consumers [12][13] - The Fed acknowledges the AI sector's contribution to GDP growth but questions its sustainability, which is unlikely to drive major decisions at this stage [14] Data & Economic Indicators - The Fed can use alternative data sources like state data and private sector indices to compensate for missing official economic reports [5][9] - Bank of America research indicates credit card spending is up over 2% for the week ending October 4th [8] - Earnings reports from companies like Delta Airlines and PepsiCo can provide insights into inflation and consumer spending [9] - Private sector economic reports may also be affected by the lack of incoming government data [9] - Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool estimates GDP growth at 38% [11]