They say numbers never lie, but what if we don't have them in the first place? The erosion of economic data over the past year poses a massive risk for individuals and businesses, writes BI's Andy Kiersz. (As our economic data editor, he would know!)You might scoff at the idea that there isn't enough data. Sometimes it can feel like we have too much information on just about everything. The crux of the issue is government-issued data, specifically from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS is the backbo ...

The first week of February will bring plenty of earnings and a handful of economic dataThe first week of February is fairly light in terms of economic data, but jobs data will be in the spotlight toward the latter half of the week. On the earnings front, Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), PayPal (PYPL), PepsiCo (PEP), Pfizer (PFE), Shopify (SHOP), Snap (SNAP), Strategy (MSTR), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Tapestry (TPR), Tyson Foods (TSN), Qualcomm (QCOM), Uber (UBER), and Walt Disney (DIS) a ...

Core Viewpoint - US stock markets reached new intraday records before experiencing a pullback, indicating a mixed trading environment influenced by conflicting economic indicators [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by approximately 0.5% [1] - The S&P 500 index remained essentially flat, reflecting a lack of decisive movement [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Strong economic data from the services sector contributed to initial market gains [1] - Weak employment numbers created tension in the market, leading to profit-taking by investors [1]

Market Performance - European markets closed positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.94% and notable gains in the U.K.'s FTSE 100 (0.54%), Germany's DAX (1.34%), and France's CAC 40 (0.2%) [2] - Defense, technology, and mining sectors were key drivers of the market's upward movement, influenced by geopolitical tensions and upcoming economic data [1] Sector Highlights - In the U.K. market, mining stocks performed well, with Antofagasta and Endeavour Mining rising 6.25% and 6.1%, respectively, while other miners like Fresnillo and Anglo American also saw gains [3] - German defense and technology stocks like Rheinmetall (nearly 10% increase) and Infineon (4.8% increase) showed strong performance, while auto stocks faced declines [5] - French market saw Eurofins Scientific rallying about 8%, with other companies like Thales and Bureau Veritas also gaining [6] Declines in Specific Companies - Several companies in the U.K. market, including Admiral Group and British American Tobacco, closed down by 2% to 3% [4] - In Germany, auto stocks such as Volkswagen and BMW lost between 2.3% and 3.1% [5] - French companies like Danone and Renault experienced losses ranging from 1% to 2.3% [6] Economic Indicators - UK mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 64,500 in November, indicating a decrease in future borrowing, while remortgaging approvals increased [7]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.19% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrials has slid to a 1-week low, while the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to a 1.5-week low, primarily due to weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks [2] Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 16,000 to a 1-month low of 199,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [3] - China's December manufacturing PMI rose by +0.9 to 50.1, exceeding expectations and marking the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months [4] - The December non-manufacturing PMI in China also increased by +0.7 to 50.2, stronger than expected [4] Market Sentiment - Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks, with historical data showing that the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% increase [5] - Market focus this week is on US economic news, with expectations for the December S&P manufacturing PMI to remain at 51.8 [5] - The markets are currently pricing in a 15% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [5] Global Market Overview - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.08% and China's Shanghai Composite closing up +0.09% [6] - Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 is closed for a bank holiday [6]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks showed positive movement with the Dow Jones index increasing by 0.22% to 48,469.41, the NASDAQ rising by 0.40% to 23,521.69, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.34% to 6,901.90 [1] - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.39%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index rising 0.16%, and London's FTSE 100 increasing by 0.29% [6] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 0.02% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling by 0.11% [7] Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders declined by 2.2% month-over-month to $307.4 billion in October, contrasting with a revised growth of 0.7% in September and exceeding market estimates of a 1.5% decline [2][10] - U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, marking the highest growth in two years and surpassing market expectations of 3.3% [8] Commodity Prices - Oil prices increased by 0.1% to $58.09, while gold rose by 0.2% to $4,477.10 [5] - Silver saw a significant increase of 2.4% to $70.230, and copper rose by 0.9% to $5.5580 [5] Company News - Novo Nordisk A/S shares surged by 9% to $52.30 following FDA approval of its Wegovy pill [9] - Highway Holdings Ltd shares jumped by 107% to $1.72 after announcing a nonbinding letter of intent to acquire a 51% stake in Germany-based Regent-Feinbau Adermann GmbH [9] - Trinity Biotech PLC shares increased by 56% to $1.39 after receiving an order for 9 million TrinScreen HIV tests [9] - Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc shares dropped by 50% to $0.30 following a regulatory update regarding brilaroxazine [9] - Starfighters Space Inc shares fell by 42% to $18.27 after a significant rally the previous day [9] - Argo Blockchain PLC shares decreased by 13% to $4.00 [9]

Inflation Overview - November year-over-year inflation rose by 27%, lower than economists' expectation of 31% [1][5] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect October data due to government shutdown [2][6][14][15][16] - The Federal Reserve ideally prefers inflation to be closer to 2% [7] Consumer Spending & Prices - Food prices increased by 26% year-over-year, lower than the previous reading of 31% [9] - Energy costs increased by 42% year-over-year, with electricity costs up by approximately 7% [10] - Shelter costs increased by 3% year-over-year, slower than the previous reading of 32% or 36% [11] - Apparel costs were essentially flat, up by two-tenths of a percent year-over-year [12] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - There is approximately a 25% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the January 28th meeting [12] - The Federal Reserve may cut rates once or twice in 2026, depending on the labor market [12][13] - Weaker jobs data could lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates more than once in 2026, potentially triggering some inflation [13]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline, influenced by mixed signals from recent economic data [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite also fell by 0.3% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 120 points, equivalent to a 0.2% decline [1] Treasury Yields - The yield on the 2-year Treasury note decreased to 3.51% [1] - Conversely, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased to 4.19% [1]

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market opened higher, driven by stable bond yields and anticipation of key economic data [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.4% [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite saw a gain of 0.6% [1] Group 2: Bond Yields - The two-year Treasury yield decreased slightly to just over 3.5% [1] - This yield has remained stable around this level since September [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The market perceives economic data as sufficiently cool for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates [1]