Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut during its final meeting of the year, with a 90% probability indicated by CME Group data [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The Fed's final monetary policy decision will be announced on December 10, 2025, with expectations of a third rate cut this year [1]. - The Fed will also release its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2025, which includes forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates [2]. - Investors are particularly interested in any changes to the Fed's outlook for 2026, which previously indicated only one rate cut in that year following three in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Stock market reactions were muted at the market open, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2% [4]. - Treasury yields remained steady as investors awaited the Fed's policy decision, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.14% and the 30-year yield declining to 4.78% [5]. Group 3: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is growing concern about potential dissent among Fed officials, as two members voted against the previous rate cut in October [3][11]. - At least three regional Fed presidents have expressed skepticism about the necessity of a rate cut this week, indicating possible dissent in the upcoming decision [10][12].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week, with a press conference by Jerome Powell scheduled for Wednesday at 2:30 PM New York time, which is anticipated to be a key data point for the market [2][10] - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will also be released, providing insights from Fed members on their economic outlook [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data is set to be released on Tuesday, with Bank of America's consumer checkpoint indicating a 4% increase in consumer spending for August, contrasting with Jamie Dimon's concerns about a weakening US economy [4][7] - Mixed economic data has been observed, including a significant drop in the Empire State manufacturing index, which fell by 8.7% compared to a positive 11.9% last month [8] Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected on Thursday, including Darden Restaurants in the morning and FedEx and LAR in the afternoon, marking a significant event for the week [9] Market Sentiment - The markets are currently at all-time highs, with ongoing trade talks between the US and China being closely monitored, as this is the fourth meeting in four months [5][6]