The Mastercard Economics Institute expects holiday spending to increase at a lower rate than last year as consumers navigate a slowdown in hiring in the labor market and uncertainty around the impact of tariffs.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PY ...

Salary Expectations - Employers plan to increase salaries by an average of 3.4% in 2026, consistent with the increases reported in 2025 [1][5] - Payscale's survey indicates a similar average pay increase of approximately 3.5% in 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025 [5][6] Economic Constraints - 60% of companies cite economic uncertainty as a key constraint affecting salary and hiring decisions [2] - 66% of employers now prioritize economic concerns over labor competition when making compensation decisions, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous year [7] Hiring Trends - Companies are slowing down hiring and are more cautious in filling open positions, with some transitioning temporary layoffs to permanent reductions [3] - 16% of surveyed companies plan to allocate salary budgets towards skill-building initiatives for existing employees [3] Industry Variations - Pay increases vary by field, with employees in science, engineering, and government expected to see salary bumps exceeding 4% [9]

Consumers are feeling more financially anxious—and at a moment where consumer credit card debt has hit an all-time high, some young consumers are turning their back on credit cards in favor of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services like Afterpay and Klarna. Second quarter data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that Americans owe $1.21 trillion on their credit cards. The bank said credit card delinquencies have “remained elevated;” its data showed that the delinquency rate has hit 7.18 percent. M ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: The share of major public companies that plucked executives from their own ranks and appointed them as CFOs jumped to nearly 71.8% in the first half of 2025 from 52.9% last year, according to executive search firm Crist Kolder Associates’ latest Volatility Report, which tracks C-suite hiring trends. That’s well above the historical average of 62%, according to ...

Question-and-Answer SessionSo first off, maybe Ryals, we've heard a lot about the last couple of days, right, about the challenges currently facing sort of the consumer. You operate in a bit of a unique category. So I'm interested in hearing your perspective as -- just far as what you're seeing from the consumer sort of at this stage?A. McMullianCEO & Chairman of Board Yes. I mean, really, more broadly, nothing really different than what everybody else is seeing. The consumer is still pressured, concerned a ...

National Summary - Overall economic activity remained mostly unchanged across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with four Districts reporting modest growth [12] - Consumer spending was flat to declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to promotions in retail and hospitality sectors [12] - Manufacturing firms are shifting to local supply chains and increasing automation, while data center construction is a noted strength in commercial real estate [12] Labor Markets - Eleven Districts reported little or no change in employment levels, with some firms hesitant to hire due to weaker demand [13] - Wage growth was modest across half of the Districts, while a reduction in immigrant labor availability was noted, impacting sectors like construction [13] Prices - Ten Districts reported moderate or modest price growth, with tariff-related increases being a common theme [15] - Many firms hesitated to raise prices due to customer sensitivity and competition, despite rising input costs [15] Highlights by Federal Reserve District - **Boston**: Economic activity expanded slightly, with flat consumer spending and moderate home sales [16] - **New York**: Economic activity declined slightly, with modest wage growth and strong input price increases [17] - **Philadelphia**: Business activity increased modestly, with steady employment levels and rising inflation expectations [18] - **Cleveland**: Business activity increased slightly, but demand remained flat due to uncertainty [19] - **Richmond**: Modest growth driven by consumer spending, with flat manufacturing activity [20] - **Atlanta**: Slight decline in economic activity, with moderate price increases and steady employment [21] - **Chicago**: Modest increases in consumer spending and manufacturing activity, with moderate price growth [22] - **St. Louis**: Unchanged economic activity, with concerns about immigration policies affecting labor supply [23] - **Minneapolis**: Slight contraction in economic activity, with a decline in consumer spending [24] - **Kansas City**: Generally flat economic activity, with modest wage pressures and input price growth [25] - **Dallas**: Modest rise in economic activity, with slow hiring and persistent price pressures [26] - **San Francisco**: Slight decline in economic activity, with stable lending and modest price increases [27] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston - Economic activity expanded slightly, with mixed results across sectors and modest price increases [28] - Consumer spending was flat, while manufacturing sales rose modestly, particularly in AI-related products [32] Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Economic activity continued to decline slightly, with modest wage growth and rising input prices [37] - Manufacturing activity picked up modestly, while service sector activity declined [45] Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Business activity increased modestly, with steady employment levels and moderate wage growth [53] - Firms reported concerns about rising tariffs and their impact on inflation expectations [62] Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Slight increase in overall business activity, with flat consumer spending and modest wage pressures [73] - Manufacturers reported flat demand due to trade policy uncertainty [80] Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond - Continued modest growth in the economy, with increased consumer spending and flat manufacturing activity [88] - Wage growth remained moderate, with price growth picking up in retail and wholesale services [90] Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Slight decline in economic activity, with steady employment and moderate price increases [21] - Consumer spending slowed, particularly in leisure travel [21] Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Modest increases in economic activity, with consumer spending and manufacturing activity rising [22] - Prices rose moderately, with financial conditions loosening slightly [22] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Economic activity remained unchanged, with concerns about immigration policies affecting labor supply [23] - Prices and wages increased at a faster pace recently [23] Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - Slight contraction in economic activity, with a decline in consumer spending and manufacturing [24] - Wage pressures were moderate, with slight improvements in construction activity [24] Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic activity was generally flat, with modest wage pressures and broad-based input price growth [25] - Expectations of sustained price pressures were noted [25] Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Modest rise in economic activity, with slow hiring and persistent price pressures [26] - Loan demand grew, but the housing market remained weak [26] Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic activity edged down slightly, with stable lending activity and modest price increases [27] - Conditions in agriculture and retail trade eased slightly [27]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions, high inflation, and weaker demand, leading to reduced package volumes [1][4]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises companies providing air delivery and freight services, with many offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions. The health of these companies is closely tied to the overall economy, with major players like FedEx transporting millions of packages daily [3]. Key Trends - **Economic Uncertainty & Tariff Concerns**: The industry is affected by market volatility and tariff uncertainties, particularly with China, which may lead to higher costs and dampen consumer spending [4]. - **Demand Slowdown**: A decline in shipping demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is negatively impacting key players like UPS and FedEx, leading to withheld earnings and revenue forecasts [5]. - **Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders**: Companies are increasing dividends and buybacks to reward shareholders, indicating financial strength. UPS raised its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, while FedEx increased its dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 [6]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry ranks 202, placing it in the bottom 18% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating poor near-term prospects [7][8]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 26.5% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's increase of 17.7% [9]. Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 7.97X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.45X and the sector's 9.37X [12]. Stocks to Watch - **FedEx (FDX)**: The company is focused on rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a solid liquidity position and cost-cutting efforts driving its bottom line. FDX has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters [16][17]. - **GXO Logistics (GXO)**: The company is enhancing its logistics capabilities, benefiting from increased e-commerce and automation. GXO has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, with shares rising 9.7% over the past year [19].

Government Data Manipulation Risks - Political leaders meddling in government data rarely ends well, as seen in Greece, China, and Argentina [1][2] - Undermining data integrity erodes a country's international standing and increases borrowing costs [2][4] - Accurate data is crucial for citizens to hold leaders accountable and for informed decision-making [5] Economic and Investment Implications - Data manipulation creates uncertainty for investors and companies making capital expenditure decisions [10][11] - Distrust in government data can undermine confidence in the country's credibility domestically and internationally [4][13] - The US is at a critical juncture, and the integrity of data production needs to be maintained to avoid a loss of confidence [7][8] Historical Parallels and Warnings - Argentina's systematic understatement of inflation led to a loss of international confidence and a debt crisis [2][3] - Greece's prosecution of the head of its statistical agency further eroded its international standing [1][5] - Janet Yellen likens the US situation to that of a banana republic, highlighting the severity of the concern [6]

Dining Trends - Despite economic uncertainty, people continue to prioritize dining out across all price points [1] - The industry observes year-over-year growth even in the $50 per person and up segment [2] - Restaurants are largely full and busy, indicating sustained consumer demand [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are willing to allocate discretionary income to restaurant experiences [1] - People want to go out to restaurants, have a good time, and enjoy good food [2]

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...