What did We Learn from Our China Industrial Plant Tour? CITI'S TAKE On our industrial tour 24-26 Jun we met not only with UBTECH (9880.HK), but also with humanoid robot supply chain companies Orbbec (688322.SS), Wolong (600580.SS), and Bozhon (688097.SS), which cooperate with leading Chinese humanoid robot maker Zhiyuan Robot, or AgiBot (智元机器人). We also met with Rongtai (603119.SS), Shuanghuan (002472.SZ), and Hengli (601100.SS), which cooperate with the leading US NEV/humanoid robot maker. We summarize our ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to enhance its manufacturing capabilities, particularly in robotics and autonomous vehicles, drawing parallels to the G.I. Bill of 1944 which supported workforce integration for veterans [3][4]. - China's manufacturing dominance, with a 29% share of global manufacturing compared to the U.S.'s 17% as of 2023, serves as both a wake-up call and a model for the U.S. to follow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of attracting and retaining skilled talent in the automotive sector, especially as companies like General Motors and Ford transition towards AI-enabled robotics [11]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The G.I. Bill provided various benefits to veterans, establishing a foundation for workforce integration that continues to influence employment programs today [3]. - The Lincoln Technical Institute was founded in 1946 to help veterans transition their military skills into civilian careers, including automotive training [4]. Current Manufacturing Landscape - U.S. manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has declined from 28% in 1948 to less than 10% today, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4]. - The report notes that the U.S. must revitalize national policies to develop human talent necessary for the future of manufacturing, particularly in the physical AI economy [12]. Implications for Major Automakers - General Motors and Ford face challenges in attracting new talent as they evolve towards AI and robotics, with competition from tech companies intensifying [11]. - The experience of GM and Ford in China over the past four decades may provide valuable insights as the industry progresses [11]. Industry Ratings - The report includes specific ratings for various companies within the automotive sector, with notable mentions such as: - Ford Motor Company: Equal-weight [75] - General Motors Company: Equal-weight [75] - Tesla Inc: Overweight [75]

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As legacy auto makers face rising secular threats, US auto suppliers face a unique opportunity to fill critical gaps between domestic supply & demand of the critical technologies enabling AI's move into the physical world. Diversification away from legacy OEMs and auto end-market will be key. Agentic AI is moving further into the physical world, exposing critical gaps between reliable (on-shore/near-shore) US supply and demand with each passing week. According to 2023 World Bank data, the US was the single ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" investment rating for the robotics industry, suggesting a positive outlook for future performance [17]. Core Insights - The robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements, particularly in the development of versatile robots capable of performing a wide range of tasks, which are increasingly recognized for their maturity and adaptability [6]. - Demand for robots is driven by their ability to operate in environments unsuitable for human presence, with humanoid robots expected to become integral to service robotics and gradually adopted in elder care facilities and households [6][9]. - Technological innovation is at the forefront, focusing on advancing embodied intelligence as a pathway to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), with collaborative research efforts driving a shift from single- to multi-scenario applications [7]. Summary by Sections Panel Discussion: Embodied AI: Robots Meet the Real World - The panel highlighted the near-term potential for humanoid robots to enhance operational efficiency in factories, warehouses, and elder care facilities, addressing labor shortages and improving safety [1][2]. Panel Discussion: Pioneering the Future: Chinese Robotics Companies and the Next Wave of Automation - The discussion explored medium-term opportunities for broader integration of robots into households, assisting with daily tasks and caregiving [1][2]. Demand Case and Market Potential - The future of robotics, particularly in warehousing and humanoid applications, is poised for significant growth, with a focus on developing lightweight, flexible, and easily deployable robots [9]. - The gradual implementation of humanoid robots in semi-structured industrial environments is anticipated to accelerate, reflecting a strategic shift towards versatile and reliable robotic solutions [9]. Supply Chain and Technological Advancements - Chinese robotics companies are focusing on commercialization, leveraging a sophisticated manufacturing supply chain to create robust hardware platforms and training targeted models for specific applications [9]. US-China Trade Dynamics and Collaboration - The humanoid robotics sector is a key area of competition and collaboration between the US and China, with both countries investing heavily in the technology despite geopolitical tensions [9].

May 19, 2025 12:39 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Autonomy & Alchemy: Valuing Tesla in the Robot Era Nearly 15 years after going public, investors struggle to justify the value of Tesla as much as ever before. We expect this valuation 'problem' gets worse before it gets better. It's not too late to change. "If one knows what is really happening one knows what is going to happen." • H.G. Wells (The Shape of Things to Come) Vita post auto. Most investors value Tesla's core auto business at between $50 and $ ...