正文 01 引言 本篇报告为《人形机器人系列深度报告》第四篇，详细解读海外人形机器人产业化发展历程，梳 理拆解多元化技术路线探索，分析研判海外科技巨头、头部初创 公司技术布局与商业化路径 。我们认为，当前人形机器人产业化奇点已至，看好海外机器人产业链长期增量空间。 摘要 海外人形机器人产业化加速，迈向量产新纪元。 海外人形机器人产业历经萌芽探索、集成发展、高动态发展及智能化发展四大阶段，技术路线呈现仿生模拟与功 能学习双轨并行格局。日本侧重形态仿生与服务应用，而美国引领功能学习与复杂环境操作产业化。欧洲多国则多元化创新。竞争格局上，科技巨头通过全栈布 局、内生发展及外延拓展三线并进，美国凭借AI积累强势领跑，初创公司数量与中国持平，近10年融资额达13.7亿美元居全球首位。发展趋势凸显大模型深度赋 能，Figure AI的Helix VLA模型突破跨场景泛化，Physical Intelligence的Hi Robot分层架构提升指令跟随准确率40%，端到端模型加速执行效率质变；应用落 地聚焦工业制造、物流仓储及家庭服务三大场景，产业化拐点已至，建议关注强客户卡位与量产能力的汽配供应链企业。 ► 引言：大模型 ...

Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is projected to be one of the hottest markets in 2025, with global financing reaching 14 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, of which the domestic market contributed 8.4 billion yuan [1] - The market size for humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach 12,400 units and a market size of 6.339 billion yuan by 2025, and nearly 340,000 units with a market size exceeding 64 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - Despite the rapid growth, challenges such as lack of profitability and limited application scenarios remain, indicating a long road ahead for widespread adoption [1] Industry Structure - The humanoid robot market has formed four distinct tiers of players, each exploring differentiated paths based on technological accumulation and practical value [2][3] - The first tier includes industry leaders like Boston Dynamics and Honda, known for their strong R&D capabilities and significant industrial progress [3] - The second tier features companies like Tesla and UBTECH, which have unique technological routes or precise application scenarios [4] - The third tier includes emerging players like Yushutech and Zhiyuan Robotics, showing impressive growth and potential [5] - The fourth tier consists of numerous startups and cross-industry entrants, bringing innovation and new ideas to the sector [5] Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot market is transitioning from demonstration to initial commercialization, with a mix of large and small-scale orders emerging [8] - Large orders can range from hundreds to thousands of units, while smaller orders dominate the market, indicating a diverse customer base [8][9] - The majority of current humanoid robot orders are concentrated in educational and research institutions, limiting the potential for high-profit commercial applications [11][12] Challenges and Opportunities - Key challenges include high production costs, reliance on imported core components, and fragmented application scenarios, which hinder standardization and profitability [11][12] - The industry faces a critical need for technological collaboration and integration to enhance overall performance and reliability [12][13] - Identifying and targeting essential application scenarios, such as high-risk industrial tasks and elder care, is crucial for driving commercialization [14][25] Future Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to evolve into a significant player in the tech landscape, akin to PCs and smartphones, driven by continuous technological advancements and market demand [20] - The focus will shift towards addressing real human needs, with an emphasis on integrating technology, diversifying application scenarios, and meeting consumer demands [21][26] - As the market matures, humanoid robots are anticipated to penetrate consumer markets, particularly in emotional companionship, with products becoming more affordable and accessible [26][27]

Core Insights - Humanoid Global Holdings Corp. has committed to an indirect strategic investment of US$ 145,000 into Agility Robotics, Inc. through a fund that holds shares of Agility Robotics [1][7] - Agility Robotics is recognized as a leading manufacturer of humanoid robots and has successfully deployed its robots commercially, including usage by Fortune 500 companies [2][3] - The investment reflects sustained confidence in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly following Agility's $150 million funding round in 2022 [3] Company Overview - Humanoid Global Holdings Corp. focuses on building and accelerating a portfolio of pioneering companies in the humanoid robotics and embodied AI sector [1][8] - The company provides a global investment platform that includes advanced software, hardware, and enabling technologies, aiming for long-term partnerships and strategic consultation [8] Product and Market Position - Agility Robotics has opened the first dedicated humanoid robot factory in Oregon, positioning itself early in the industry with a focus on practical applications in distribution and fulfillment [3] - The flagship humanoid robot, Digit, is designed for autonomous operation in human environments, capable of carrying up to 35 lbs and operating for up to 4 hours between charges [4][5] Workforce Impact - Digit is designed to augment the workforce by taking on repetitive and high-turnover jobs, allowing human workers to focus on more complex tasks [6] - The deployment of Digit in controlled environments allows for the collection of performance data to inform future developments in various sectors, including hospitality and home settings [6]

Core Insights - Humanoid Global Holdings Corp. has committed to an indirect strategic investment of US$ 145,000 in Agility Robotics, indicating confidence in the humanoid robotics sector [1][3] - Agility Robotics is recognized for its commercial deployment of humanoid robots, with its flagship robot, Digit, designed for safe operation in human environments [2][4] - The investment reflects ongoing investor interest following Agility's $150 million funding round in 2022, showcasing sustained confidence in the industry [3] Company Overview - Humanoid Global Holdings Corp. focuses on building a portfolio of pioneering companies in humanoid robotics and embodied AI, providing capital and strategic consultation [7] - The company aims to facilitate growth in the sector by investing in advanced software, hardware, and enabling technologies [7] Industry Context - Agility Robotics has established a significant position in the humanoid robotics industry by focusing on practical applications in distribution and fulfillment [3] - The deployment of Digit addresses labor shortages in manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing, with a potential impact on 1.9 million jobs in the U.S. [4][6] - The approach of augmenting rather than displacing the workforce is emphasized, allowing humans to focus on more complex tasks [6]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being utilized in personal finance discussions, particularly for budget management and passive income generation [1] - High-income earners are more optimistic about AI's role in wealth building, with 46% believing it will assist their goals compared to 16% who think it will harm them [2] - AI has the potential to democratize financial advice, making it more accessible to individuals across various income levels, especially those earning below $50,000 annually [3][4] Financial Literacy Enhancement - AI can significantly improve financial literacy by providing instant education on money topics through chatbots, which serve as both teachers and sounding boards [6] - AI-driven applications like Digit can analyze spending habits and facilitate savings, demonstrating practical benefits in wealth accumulation [5] Investment Assistance - AI-driven investment portfolio services are becoming more prevalent, with platforms like Betterment and Wealthfront catering to medium-income earners (those earning between $50,000 and $100,000) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Agility Robotics has secured investment from NVIDIA in its Series C funding round, marking a significant partnership beyond just technical collaboration [1] Group 1: Investment Details - Agility Robotics announced that it received investment from NVentures, NVIDIA's venture capital arm, during its Series C funding round [1] - The investment amount is speculated to be between $20 million and $30 million, although this has not been officially confirmed [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Agility Robotics is a bipedal Mobile Manipulation Robot (MMR) company known for creating Digit, the first commercially available humanoid robot [1] - The company has notable clients, including e-commerce giant Amazon [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - 2025 is anticipated to be the year of humanoid robots, with Agility Robotics aiming to develop robots that can move, work, and adapt alongside humans in dynamic environments [1] - NVIDIA has played a crucial role in advancing Agility Robotics' AI and autonomy capabilities in bipedal humanoid robots through its AI infrastructure and development frameworks [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics industry is undergoing significant automation transformation, with humanoid robots expected to play a crucial role in enhancing supply chain efficiency. The deployment of humanoid robots is currently in the validation stage, with an anticipated scale of over 10,000 units by 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current State of Humanoid Robots**: Humanoid robots are primarily being tested in industrial and service scenarios, focusing on simple tasks such as material handling in manufacturing and logistics. The logistics sector's repetitive and less precision-demanding tasks align well with the current capabilities of humanoid robots [1][2]. - **Cost Reduction**: Humanoid robots can significantly lower operational and investment costs in warehousing logistics, addressing labor shortages. The average annual salary for warehouse workers in the U.S. is approximately $50,000, with a projected shortage of about 1 million logistics workers in 2023 [1][4]. - **Flexibility and Efficiency**: Traditional "man-to-goods" models lack flexibility, while embodied intelligence promotes a "goods-to-man" approach, utilizing AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robots) and humanoid robots for dynamic warehouse management. This method is easier to deploy and reduces renovation costs [1][4]. - **Market Potential**: The global market for humanoid robots is vast, with an estimated potential exceeding $2 trillion. Currently, only about 20% of warehouses utilize traditional automation solutions, indicating significant growth opportunities [8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Technological Advancements**: Companies like Agility Robotics are leading the way in humanoid robotics, with their product Digit being compatible with AMR for loading and unloading tasks. Agility Robotics is recognized as the first profitable humanoid robot company, valued at over $1 billion, with a two-year ROI for customers [3][6]. - **Labor Market Trends**: The logistics industry faces challenges such as high employee turnover and rising labor costs, exacerbated by an aging workforce and a lack of interest from younger generations in high-intensity jobs. This creates a pressing need for efficient automation solutions [4][5]. - **Commercial Models**: The smart logistics sector features various business models, including data-driven, ecological collaboration, capital-industry linkage, technological breakthroughs, and global ecosystems. Each model has unique advantages and challenges [10][11]. Future Directions - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors should focus on traditional system integrators, new warehousing software developers, and companies specializing in forklifts, as these sectors are well-positioned to integrate humanoid robotics into their operations [15]. - **Emerging Trends**: Key areas for future investment include robotics, engineering machinery, general equipment, energy devices, and export chains, reflecting broader market interests [16].

Group 1 - Humanoid robots are becoming a key support for the breakthrough of intelligent technology, enabling seamless adaptation to human environments and interaction with physical tools [1][14] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 12,400 units and a market size of 6.339 billion yuan by 2025, and over 640 billion yuan by 2030 [2][25] - By 2035, the market is anticipated to exceed 500 million units and 4 trillion yuan, with Goldman Sachs predicting a global market size of 154 billion USD [2][25] Group 2 - Major companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics are leading the technological evolution of humanoid robots, with Tesla's Optimus series set for mass production by 2026 at a price of 20,000 to 30,000 USD [3][34] - Boston Dynamics is launching a new electric version of the Atlas robot in 2024, capable of complex movements and tasks [3][34] - Companies like Unitree and Figure AI are also making strides in humanoid robot development, focusing on various applications from industrial to household services [3][34][31] Group 3 - Humanoid robots are being applied in various sectors, including industrial manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, and home services, demonstrating their versatility and effectiveness [4][30] - Amazon is testing the humanoid robot Digit for tasks such as unloading trucks and managing shelves, while 1X and OpenAI are developing EVE for home and office assistance [4][30] - The healthcare sector is seeing humanoid robots transition from laboratory settings to clinical practice, addressing resource shortages and improving diagnostic accuracy [4][30] Group 4 - The future development of humanoid robots will focus on establishing unified hardware standards, enhancing operational reliability, and fostering collaboration between academia and industry [5][30] - There is a need for breakthroughs in multimodal perception and cloud-edge collaboration technologies to advance humanoid robot capabilities [5][30] - Creating an international platform for humanoid robot development and standardized interaction interfaces will facilitate multi-robot coordination [5][30]

Group 1 - The main factors limiting the large-scale deployment of humanoid robots are their limited generalization capabilities and high manufacturing costs, with mainstream humanoid robots priced around 500,000 yuan, and some high-end models reaching over 1 million yuan [1] - High development costs, closed-source design architectures, and limited customization capabilities are major bottlenecks for rapid development in this field [2] - The Berkeley Humanoid Lite, developed by a team from the University of California, Berkeley, is a low-cost open-source humanoid robot that utilizes desktop 3D printing for manufacturing, with a BOM cost under $5,000, approximately 35,000 yuan [2][8] Group 2 - Current humanoid robot platforms are divided into commercial products and research prototypes, with commercial products like Agility Robotics' Digit and Fourier Intelligence's GR1 being too expensive for most research institutions and individuals [3] - Open-source hardware and software have significant potential in driving technological innovation and collaboration, allowing researchers to learn from each other and accelerate the iterative process [5] - The design of Berkeley Humanoid Lite emphasizes modularity and ease of manufacturing, with all structural components printable on standard desktop 3D printers, significantly reducing manufacturing complexity [9] Group 3 - Berkeley Humanoid Lite is designed as a medium-sized humanoid robot platform, standing at 0.8 meters tall and weighing 16 kilograms, featuring joint actuators and an integrated IMU for position sensing [10] - The robot's joint actuators utilize a 3D-printed cycloidal gearbox design, enhancing load capacity and lifespan through optimized gear parameters and manufacturing processes [12] - The robot's structure is built using aluminum extrusions for high rigidity and lightweight characteristics, with real-time monitoring of posture and motion state through the integrated IMU [14] Group 4 - The electronic system of Berkeley Humanoid Lite consists of a control computer, joint actuator controllers, an IMU, and a power management module, ensuring stable power supply and precise control [16] - Performance tests showed that the joint actuators maintained a mechanical efficiency of around 90%, indicating effective energy conversion and reduced energy loss [17] - The robot demonstrated excellent walking capabilities across various terrains, maintaining balance and adapting to slopes and steps, showcasing its dynamic balance control [20] Group 5 - Remote operation experiments validated the robot's precision and responsiveness in performing tasks like writing and object manipulation, indicating its suitability for various practical applications [21][24] - Berkeley Humanoid Lite represents an open-source, customizable, and cost-effective humanoid robot platform, significantly lowering development costs and simplifying manufacturing processes [25] - Future optimizations will focus on enhancing system stability and adaptability, further exploring the platform's potential application value [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the inherent risks associated with humanoid robots, particularly their physical instability and safety challenges when interacting with humans in various environments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Safety Challenges - Humanoid robots like Digit face significant safety risks due to their human-like form, which can lead to physical instability and potential accidents [2]. - In the event of a technical failure, humanoid robots pose a danger not only to themselves but also to nearby humans, especially in sensitive areas where human interaction occurs [3]. - The dynamic performance of humanoid robots necessitates a reevaluation of safety strategies as they become more capable and human-like [4]. Group 2: Emotional and Psychological Risks - Beyond physical risks, humanoid robots may create psychological challenges, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children, if they fail to provide a sense of safety [10]. - The tendency for humans to anthropomorphize robots can lead to overestimating their capabilities and underestimating their risks, creating a gap between user expectations and actual performance [12]. - The mismatch between a robot's appearance and its functionality can lead to disappointment and mistrust among users, especially in caregiving scenarios [10][12]. Group 3: Regulatory and Standardization Needs - There is a pressing need for new safety standards and protocols to govern the deployment of humanoid robots in sensitive environments like healthcare and elder care [12][16]. - Experts suggest that humanoid robots should be classified based on their capabilities and intended use rather than their human-like appearance, to better manage safety expectations [15]. - The establishment of universal safety standards is crucial for the healthy development of the humanoid robotics industry, despite the challenges in creating such standards [16][18]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article emphasizes the importance of iterative testing and gradual integration of humanoid robots into real-world environments to identify common characteristics and safety protocols [13]. - Companies are encouraged to innovate safety mechanisms, such as implementing smoother shutdown processes to prevent accidents during emergencies [15]. - The overarching goal is to create a clear and reliable safety framework that can adapt to various scenarios while ensuring public trust in humanoid robots [22].