Core Insights - Emerging markets experienced a significant increase of over 25% in 2025, indicating strong growth potential compared to previous years [1] - These markets are currently trading at deep discounts relative to U.S. markets, suggesting potential investment opportunities for investors seeking undervalued assets [1] Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets in 2025 reflects a robust recovery and growth trajectory, which may attract more foreign investments [1] - The deep discount in valuation compared to U.S. markets highlights a disparity that could lead to increased capital inflows into emerging markets as investors look for better returns [1]

Markets are reacting to the news the US ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro largely in stride. Jim Craige, CIO and Head of Emerging Markets at Stone Harbor Investment Partners, said his firm has been investing in Venezuela for the past year. He discussed the potential implications for emerging markets on Bloomberg ETF IQ with Scarlet Fu, Katie Greifeld and Eric Balchunas. ...

Core Insights - Emerging markets have begun to outperform U.S. large caps, marking a significant shift in investment trends in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging markets have historically lagged behind U.S. large caps but have seen a turnaround in performance [1] - The shift in performance indicates a potential for higher returns in emerging markets compared to U.S. equities [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly looking towards emerging markets as a viable alternative to traditional U.S. investments [1] - The changing dynamics suggest a growing confidence in the economic prospects of emerging markets [1]

Core Insights - Brazilian equities have significantly outperformed emerging markets in 2025, exceeding them by over 10 percentage points [1] Performance Analysis - The strong performance of Brazilian equities is attributed to the impressive valuation of the stock market [1]

Core Insights - Emerging markets achieved impressive double-digit returns in 2025, defying global challenges, and investors are optimistic about continued performance in the upcoming year [1] - The combination of sound policies and favorable conditions has contributed to the resilience of emerging markets, making them appear more stable compared to the political and economic uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging markets have shown strong performance despite U.S. tariff policies and trade wars, leading to increased investor interest and diversification away from U.S. assets [4] - The asset dip caused by U.S. tariff announcements in April provided an opportunity for investors to acquire emerging market assets, which were previously under-owned [4] Group 2: Country-Level Changes - Significant policy shifts occurred in various countries, such as Turkey adopting orthodox economic policies, Nigeria eliminating subsidies and devaluing the naira, and Egypt continuing IMF-backed reforms, which have positively impacted investor sentiment [5] - Countries like Ghana, Zambia, and Sri Lanka faced defaults but subsequently received upgrades, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [5] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Emerging markets are now perceived to be on stronger economic footing, capable of withstanding larger shocks, as indicated by analysts [6] - There is an expectation of continued net credit rating upgrades, reflecting improving fundamentals in the sovereign credit landscape of emerging markets [6]

Core Insights - All nine global indexes tracked have shown gains through December 15, 2025, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng leading at a year-to-date gain of 30.6% [2] - The second and third positions are held by Canada's TSX with a gain of 26.5% and Japan's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 25.8% [2] - India's BSE SENSEX has the smallest year-to-date gain at 6.6% [2] Index Performance Context - A table is provided that compares each index's current value to its all-time peak, including the date of that peak and the distance from that record level [3] - Historical performance since March 9, 2009, is illustrated, showing the relative performance of world markets, with specific lows for various indexes [5] - A longer-term view starting from October 9, 2007, is also presented, highlighting the performance during a previous market peak [6]

Core Insights - Trading in the Hungarian forint has more than doubled since the U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration, with increased trader interest following his "Liberation Day" import tariffs announcement [1] - The forint has strengthened approximately 20% against the dollar in 2025, marking its best performance in nearly 25 years and positioning it as one of the top emerging currency performers [2] - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index reached a record high in July and is on track for its best year since 2017, having gained over 6% [2] Market Trends - The weakening dollar has prompted investors to reassess their exposure to the currency and consider diversifying into emerging markets, including Hungary and South Africa [3] - Analysts suggest that the long-standing bear market for emerging market currencies, lasting 14 years, may have turned, coinciding with a shift in the dollar cycle [4] - The geopolitical landscape and divergent central bank policies are expected to continue influencing price movements in the currency markets [5] Economic Implications - Currency appreciation and capital inflows have significant economic implications for governments, including reduced export appeal and enhanced capacity to raise and repay debt [6] - The International Monetary Fund has issued warnings regarding potential risks stemming from currency market volatility [6]

All right. I think all day long we're going to talk about whether this was a hawkish cut. Was it a neutral cut. Was it a dovish cut.What was your take. I I felt like Jac Powell's comments about the the path forward not really being clear. That was a bit hawkish, but at the same time, the bond buying on the short end that seems a bit doubbish.Seems like it has almost the same effect as a rate cut. How did you view it. >> Well, our economists think that it was of course uh less less hawkish than the market ha ...

Core Insights - Global investors are advised to reduce exposure to US equities as emerging market stocks are expected to outperform developed market stocks for the first time in five years due to a weakening US dollar [1][4] - The US dollar has weakened significantly, dropping by 10% at one point this year, following a decade-long bull run that began in 2011 [1] - Cambridge Associates predicts a further decline in the dollar, anticipating a multi-year bear market starting in 2026 due to economic policy uncertainty, overvalued assets, and fiscal pressures [2] Market Performance - The weaker US dollar has positively impacted international stocks, with global non-US equities outperforming US equities by 6.6 percentage points in local currency terms and by 13.9 percentage points in US dollar terms in 2025 [3] - Latin America has shown remarkable performance in emerging markets, achieving a 37% year-to-date return on equities, supported by low valuations and improving macroeconomic conditions [5] Investment Recommendations - Cambridge Associates recommends investors to be overweight in global non-US equities in 2026, expecting the trend of outperformance to continue [4] - The heavy reliance on technology stocks in the US market makes it vulnerable, particularly if the artificial intelligence theme loses momentum, which could lead to a pullback by overseas investors [6] Valuation Metrics - The cyclically adjusted price-to-cash-earnings ratio for the MSCI USA index is 2.19 times higher than that of the MSCI Developed Markets index (ex-US), indicating a 50% premium to its long-term median [7] Economic Policy Context - The Trump administration is preparing to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair, with a focus on lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar to address the trade deficit and stimulate US industry [8]

Core Thesis - Mondelez International, Inc. is experiencing share-price pressure despite strong Q3 results due to rising cocoa prices and elevated transportation costs impacting margins, alongside weakened American consumer purchasing power affecting near-term demand [2][4] Financial Performance - Mondelez reported a modest revenue growth of 5.86% year-over-year, surpassing inflation, but earnings fell by over 18% due to margin pressures [4] - Operating margins declined from 12.5% to 7.6%, and the return on invested capital (ROIC) is currently at 6.2%, trailing the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.67% [4] - Analysts project a one-year price target of $62, indicating approximately 11% upside from the current share price of $56.08 [4] Strategic Positioning - The company’s broad portfolio, global scale, and category leadership position it for resilient long-term performance, with dominant segments in biscuits and chocolate [3] - Key brands like Oreo and Cadbury drive brand loyalty, while emerging markets and premium snack offerings provide additional growth opportunities [3] - Strategic initiatives include investments in core brands, bolt-on acquisitions, supply chain efficiencies, e-commerce expansion, and sustainability programs like Cocoa Life [3] Market Outlook - Despite short-term headwinds from cocoa volatility, logistics costs, and regulatory scrutiny, Mondelez's focus on emerging markets and premium products positions it to withstand macroeconomic pressures [5] - The company presents a conservative investment opportunity with moderate upside, where near-term market reactions may obscure long-term fundamentals and global snack leadership [5][6]