New Jersey Resources (NYSE:NJR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call November 20, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsRoberto Bel - SVP and CFOAdam Prior - Director of Investor RelationsSteve Westhoven - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsJamieson Ward - AnalystEli Josen - AnalystTravis Miller - AnalystGabe Maureen - AnalystOperatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Abby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the New Jersey Resourc ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, an increase from $1.87 per share in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 16% [5][25]. - The GAAP earnings for the same period were $2.35 per share, which included a tax benefit of $0.18 per share due to IRS guidance and a FERC order [25][6]. - The company expects adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2025 to be in the range of $4.90-$5.10, up from the original guidance of $4.85-$5.05 [10][27]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company deployed over $3 billion in critical infrastructure upgrades during the first three quarters of 2025, including significant investments in electric distribution and transmission systems [7][8]. - In Missouri, 11,300 electric distribution poles were replaced, and in Illinois, over 8,500 stronger electric distribution poles were installed [7][8]. - The company has invested more than $825 million in new or existing generation resources, with plans to add approximately 10 gigawatts of generation capacity by 2035 [8][9]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total normalized retail sales in Ameren Missouri increased by approximately 1.5% across all customer classes over the trailing 12 months through September [26]. - The company is actively engaging with potential data center customers, with signed construction agreements now totaling 3 gigawatts, up from 2.3 gigawatts [12][56]. - The anticipated new load from data center customers is expected to contribute significantly to sales growth, with projections of 1 gigawatt by 2029 and 1.5 gigawatts by 2032 [12][13]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in electric and natural gas infrastructure to enhance reliability and safety, while also optimizing operations to keep customer rates affordable [4][5]. - The strategy includes engaging with stakeholders on economic development opportunities and advancing regulatory frameworks to support large-load customers [5][11]. - The company aims to maintain a balanced energy mix, targeting approximately 70% generation from on-demand resources and 30% from intermittent resources by 2040 [16]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the economic growth potential of the regions served, highlighting significant opportunities for investment and job creation [4][5]. - The company expects to continue delivering strong earnings growth, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 6-8% from 2025 through 2029 [10][22]. - Management emphasized the importance of regulatory approvals and energy service agreements to solidify future growth expectations [46][78]. Other Important Information - The company has a pipeline of investment opportunities exceeding $68 billion, with further details expected in February regarding planned capital investments for 2026-2030 [21][22]. - Leadership changes were announced, with Michael Moehn transitioning to Group President of Ameren's Utilities and Lenny Singh becoming the new CFO [23][24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the increase in data center construction agreements necessitate revisions to generation plans? - Management indicated that the current generation plans can accommodate the increased sales expectations from the expanded data center agreements, with further evaluations to be made as ramp rates are established [34][36]. Question: What factors contribute to the company's current earnings guidance? - Management noted that the guidance reflects a conservative approach based on known factors, with potential for upside as regulatory approvals and energy service agreements are finalized [45][77]. Question: How does the recent omnibus energy bill in Illinois impact the business? - Management highlighted that the bill introduces integrated resource planning and increased investment in energy efficiency, which could provide opportunities for the company [60][62]. Question: Can you clarify the $5 billion increase in the capital plan pipeline? - Management explained that the increase is due to various factors, including investments in generation and grid reliability, with more details to be provided in February [87][88].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, an increase from $1.87 per share in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a $0.30 increase in adjusted earnings per share [5][25][26] - The GAAP earnings for the third quarter 2025 were $2.35 per share, which included a tax benefit of $0.18 per share due to IRS guidance [25][26] - The company expects adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2025 to be in the range of $4.90-$5.10, up from the original guidance of $4.85-$5.05 [10][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ameren invested over $3 billion in critical infrastructure upgrades during the first three quarters of 2025, including the replacement of 11,300 electric distribution poles and installation of 300 smart switches [7][8] - The company has invested more than $825 million in new or existing generation resources through September 2025, with plans to add approximately 10 GW of generation capacity by 2035 [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total normalized Ameren Missouri retail sales increased by approximately 1.5% across all customer classes over the trailing 12 months through September [26] - The executed construction agreements with data center developers in Missouri expanded to 3 GW, up from 2.3 GW, indicating strong demand in the region [12][58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in electric and natural gas infrastructure to enhance reliability and safety, while also optimizing operations to keep customer rates affordable [4][5] - Ameren's long-term earnings growth guidance is set at a 6%-8% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2029, driven by strategic infrastructure investments [10][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the economic growth of the regions served, highlighting opportunities for investment and job creation [4][5] - The company anticipates significant growth in data center demand, with expectations of 1 GW of new load from data center customers by the end of 2029 [12][14] Other Important Information - A leadership transition is set for January 1, with Michael Moehn becoming Group President of Ameren's Utilities and Lenny Singh taking over as CFO [23][24] - The company plans to provide updates on its five-year sales growth expectations and capital investments in February 2026 [12][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the increase in data center construction agreements necessitate revisions to generation plans? - Management confirmed that the increase to 3 GW of construction agreements enhances confidence in sales projections and current generation plans can accommodate this growth [34][36] Question: What factors contribute to the current earnings guidance being at the lower end of the growth range? - Management indicated that while they are currently projecting growth within the 6%-8% range, they are open to revising this based on economic development opportunities and regulatory approvals [44][46] Question: Can you elaborate on the implications of the recent Omnibus Energy bill in Illinois? - Management highlighted that the bill introduces integrated resource planning and increased investment in energy efficiency, which could benefit the company in the long run [60][62] Question: How does the company view the potential for incremental investments from the Clean Grid Reliability Act? - Management noted that the biggest opportunity lies in energy efficiency investments, which are expected to double, providing regulatory asset treatment [68][70] Question: What is the breakdown of the 2 GW in advanced discussions for data centers? - Management clarified that the 2 GW in advanced discussions is specific to Missouri, with ongoing interest from developers in both states [91][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ameren reported third quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, an increase from $1.87 per share in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a $0.30 increase in adjusted earnings per share [5][25][26] - The company recorded a tax benefit of $0.18 per share in the third quarter of 2025, which was excluded from adjusted earnings [6][25] - The updated earnings guidance for 2025 is now in the range of $4.90-$5.10, up from the original range of $4.85-$5.05 [10][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ameren invested over $3 billion in critical infrastructure upgrades during the first three quarters of 2025, including the replacement of 11,300 electric distribution poles and installation of 300 smart switches [6][8] - In Missouri, the company has invested more than $825 million in new or existing generation resources, with plans to add approximately 10 gigawatts of generation capacity by 2035 [8][9] - The transmission business placed in service 11 new or upgraded transmission substations and 40 miles of new or upgraded transmission lines [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total normalized Ameren Missouri retail sales increased by approximately 1.5% across all customer classes over the trailing 12 months through September [26] - The company expects to see significant economic growth in the region, driven by investments in data centers and other sectors, which will necessitate incremental investment in utility infrastructure [4][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ameren's strategy focuses on investing in electric and natural gas infrastructure to enhance reliability and safety while optimizing operations to keep customer rates affordable [4][5] - The company is actively engaging with stakeholders on economic development opportunities and regulatory frameworks to support new large-load customers [5][11] - Ameren aims to maintain a balanced energy mix, targeting approximately 70% generation from on-demand resources and 30% from intermittent resources by 2040 [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to achieve strong long-term earnings growth, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 6-8% from 2025 through 2029 [10][23] - The leadership team highlighted the importance of securing energy services agreements with hyperscalers to solidify sales growth expectations [39][54] - The company anticipates a bright future, driven by significant investment opportunities and economic growth in the communities it serves [5][12] Other Important Information - A leadership update was announced, with Michael Moehn transitioning to Group President of Ameren's Utilities and Lenny Singh becoming the Chief Financial Officer [24] - The company has a pipeline of investment opportunities exceeding $68 billion, which will be detailed in February [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will future revisions to generation plans be needed with the new data center agreements? - Management indicated that the current generation plans can accommodate the increased sales expectations from the new data center agreements, with further evaluations to be made as ramp rates are established [33][34] Question: What factors contribute to the current earnings guidance? - Management emphasized that the guidance reflects strong sales growth, new electric service rates, and increased expenditures for energy center reliability [38][39] Question: How does the company view the implications of the recent omnibus energy bill in Illinois? - Management noted that the bill introduces integrated resource planning and increased investment in energy efficiency, which could provide opportunities for Ameren [46][48] Question: Can you clarify the breakdown of advanced discussions for data centers? - Management confirmed that the 2 gigawatts in advanced discussions are primarily in Missouri, with significant opportunities for data center development in both Missouri and Illinois [60][61]

Group 1: Eiger Express Pipeline Overview - The Eiger Express Pipeline is designed to transport up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas through approximately 450 miles of 42-inch pipeline from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Katy area [2] - The pipeline will source supply from multiple connections in the Permian Basin, including gas processing facilities in the Midland Basin and from the Delaware Basin via the Agua Blanca Pipeline [2] - The Eiger Express Pipeline is a joint venture owned 70% by the Matterhorn JV, with ONEOK and MPLX each holding a 15% stake, resulting in 25.5% and 22% ownership in the pipeline for ONEOK and MPLX respectively [3] Group 2: Matterhorn Joint Venture - The Matterhorn JV is owned by WhiteWater (65%), ONEOK (15%), MPLX (10%), and Enbridge (10%), and it owns long-haul natural gas pipelines that transport gas from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast [4] - The Matterhorn JV also owns the Matterhorn Express Pipeline and 70% of the Eiger Express Pipeline [4] Group 3: Company Profiles - WhiteWater is an Austin, Texas-based infrastructure company that operates multiple gas transmission assets, including the Matterhorn Express Pipeline and the Eiger Express Pipeline [5] - ONEOK is a leading midstream operator with a pipeline network of approximately 60,000 miles, providing essential energy products and services [8][9] - MPLX is a diversified master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets [10] - Enbridge connects millions to energy through its North American natural gas, oil, and renewable power networks, and is investing in modern energy delivery infrastructure [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter 2025 earnings of $1.01 per share, an increase from $0.97 per share in 2024, with expectations for 2025 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05 [8][19] - Total normalized retail sales in Missouri increased approximately 1% over the trailing twelve months through June, with industrial sales up more than 2.5% [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company invested over $2 billion in critical infrastructure during the first half of the year, focusing on strengthening the energy grid and enhancing operational performance [5][17] - The company has signed construction agreements with data center developers representing approximately 2.3 gigawatts of future demand, expected to ramp up in late 2026 and beyond [9][42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates approximately 5.5% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2025 through 2029, primarily driven by increased data center demand [8][9] - The industrial sector's growth is supported by ongoing manufacturing expansions and the growth of new digital and communication services firms [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company's strategy is built on three pillars: prudent investments in rate-regulated energy infrastructure, advocating for responsible energy policies, and optimizing operations for long-term sustainable value [4] - The company has a robust pipeline of investment opportunities exceeding $63 billion, aimed at strengthening the energy grid and powering economic growth [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the investment plan and strategy across all business segments, expecting strong long-term earnings and dividend growth [17][29] - The company remains focused on building a resilient energy grid, with ongoing investments in upgraded substations and smart technologies to enhance outage detection and recovery [7][12] Other Important Information - The company plans to issue approximately $600 million of common equity each year through 2029 to support its investment plan [24] - Federal energy-related tax credits are expected to provide approximately $1.5 billion in cost savings for customers from 2025 through 2029 [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Data center load and economic development outlook - Management highlighted strong interest and momentum from data center developers, with a robust pipeline of signed construction agreements totaling 2.3 gigawatts [34][36] Question: Turbine slot queue and growth derisking - Management confirmed they are actively securing turbine slots and are confident in meeting service dates for upcoming projects [44][46] Question: Access to gas for plans - Management stated they feel good about their current gas transmission position and the ability to meet future needs with existing infrastructure [49][51] Question: MISO awards and regulatory challenges - Management acknowledged the recent complaint regarding MISO's tranche 2.1 projects but expressed support for the need for transmission investments [68][70] Question: Impact of potential changes in federal renewable policies - Management emphasized their advocacy for business certainty regarding tax credits and expressed confidence in the current legislative framework [74][76]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a strong income-generating investment opportunity, offering a yield significantly higher than the S&P 500, supported by stable cash flow and a solid financial profile [1][12]. Financial Performance - The company produced $2.3 billion in distributable cash flow in the first quarter, covering the $1.1 billion paid to investors, allowing for substantial excess free cash flow for new investments [4]. - Energy Transfer's adjusted EBITDA increased from $10.5 billion in 2020 to $15.5 billion in the previous year, with an expected growth of 5% for the current year [7]. Business Model - Energy Transfer operates a diverse portfolio of energy infrastructure assets, generating 90% of its annual EBITDA from fee-based sources backed by long-term contracts and regulated rate structures [3]. - The company's low-risk business model enables a steady cash flow, facilitating lucrative distributions to investors [4]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to invest approximately $5 billion into capital projects this year, with expansions including gas processing plants, export capacity, and a large-scale natural gas pipeline expected to enhance earnings by 2026 to 2027 [8]. - Energy Transfer is also close to approving a major liquefied natural gas export terminal and pursuing projects to supply natural gas to power plants and data centers, driven by rising production and demand [9]. Acquisitions - Recent strategic acquisitions include WTG Midstream for $3.3 billion, Crestwood Equity Partners for $7.1 billion, and Lotus Midstream for $1.5 billion, enhancing operations and cash flow [10]. - The company is in its strongest financial position in history, providing ample capacity for continued acquisitions [5][10]. Distribution Outlook - Energy Transfer aims to increase its distribution within a target range of 3% to 5% annually, supported by its growth drivers and stable cash flow [11].

Energy Market Outlook - Global energy demand is projected to steadily grow, driven by developing economies like India (32% of incremental demand from 2017 to 2040), China (26%), and Africa (15%) [9, 12] - The U S is the largest oil and gas producer, with production up 23% and 29% respectively in 2017 compared to 2000 and 2010 [16, 17] - U S oil and natural gas production is expected to grow by approximately 33% from 2017 to 2025 [22] Kinder Morgan's Asset and Financial Highlights - Kinder Morgan transports approximately 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U S [26, 39] - The company's 2019 budgeted Segment EBDA is approximately $84 billion, with natural gas pipelines contributing 61%, products pipelines 15%, terminals 14%, CO2 oil production 6%, and CO2 S&T 4% [25] - Kinder Morgan anticipates $5 billion of distributable cash flow (DCF) in 2019, allocating approximately $2 billion for dividends and $3 billion to enhance shareholder value [30] - Approximately 96% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted segment cash flow is from take-or-pay and other fee-based contracts or hedged [33] Growth and Capital Allocation - Kinder Morgan has $61 billion of commercially secured capital projects underway, with $43 billion specifically for natural gas projects [44] - The company's capital allocation priorities include maintaining a strong balance sheet with a target Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 45x, dividend growth, and share repurchases [37, 38] - U S natural gas production is projected to grow by over 30 Bcfd, or approximately 37%, through 2030, driven by key basins [39] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $78 billion, and distributable cash flow (DCF) is $50 billion [73] - The company's 2019 dividend is targeted at $100 per share, with a planned increase to $125 per share in 2020 [38] - Approximately 69% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted net revenue is generated by end-users [87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.76 for the first quarter of 2025, a 22% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024, driven by top line growth across electric and gas utilities [5][14] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42 and a long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029 [6][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment saw an increase of $0.33 compared to last year, driven by higher sales volumes, improved weather, and new rates [14] - Gas Utilities and Infrastructure results were up $0.08 compared to last year, primarily due to new rates at Piedmont, North Carolina [14] - The Other segment experienced a decrease of $0.08, mainly due to higher interest expenses [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weather-normalized volumes increased by 1.8% compared to last year, aligning with the full-year projection of 1.5% to 2% [15] - Residential volumes rose over 3% in the quarter, reflecting customer growth and higher usage [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on meeting growing energy demands through new generation and enhancing existing generation, including extending the operating license for the Oconee nuclear station for an additional twenty years [6][7] - A strategic partnership with GE Vernova was announced to secure up to 19 natural gas turbines, aimed at timely delivery of critical infrastructure [10] - The company plans to file a merger application for its DC and DEP utilities, expected to create significant customer savings and operational efficiencies [11][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's outlook, citing strong fundamentals and visibility to growth for years to come [12][13] - The company anticipates load growth to accelerate beginning in 2027 as economic development projects come online [16] - Management noted a cautious stance among industrial customers due to economic and policy uncertainties, but no immediate changes in production schedules were observed [59] Other Important Information - The company invested over $3 billion in capital during the quarter and is on track for $15 billion for the full year [20] - The impact of tariffs on the capital plan is estimated to be about 1% to 3% over five years, with confidence in minimizing this impact [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Incremental CapEx opportunities and guidance - Management indicated that updates on capital expenditures will be provided during the annual cycle in February, with a focus on a stable and growing pipeline of investment opportunities [26][28] Question: Specificity around credit metrics - Management acknowledged ongoing discussions about improving credit profiles and indicated that more defined target ranges would be provided in the next cycle in February [31][33] Question: Cadence of load growth and data center deals - Management confirmed that the pipeline remains robust, with a recent signing of one gigawatt of data center projects, which was anticipated in their plans [38][40] Question: Financial implications of the merger - Management highlighted that the merger of DC and DEP utilities could generate over a billion dollars in savings for customers, focusing on operational efficiencies and reduced regulatory proceedings [48][50] Question: Outlook on tax credits and renewables - Management emphasized the importance of nuclear tax credits in reducing customer bills and expressed support for ongoing advocacy in Washington regarding energy credits [57][58] Question: Impact of economic uncertainty on industrial customers - Management reported no immediate changes in production schedules from industrial customers but noted a cautious stance due to tariff policy uncertainties [59][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $1.07 per share, an increase from adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share in the first quarter of 2024 [6][21] - The expected diluted earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05 [7][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure investments continue to strengthen the energy grid and provide more energy resources, driving earnings growth across the company [21] - The economic outlook for service territories remains strong, with a 3% increase in total weather-normalized retail sales over the trailing twelve months ended in March [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Missouri Public Service Commission approved a $355 million annual revenue increase, marking the fifth consecutive settlement of electric revenue requirements in the state [24] - The company expects approximately 5.5% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2025 through 2029, primarily driven by increasing data center demand [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its strategic plan, focusing on delivering reliable, affordable energy while making prudent investments in energy infrastructure [5][6] - A robust pipeline of investment opportunities exceeding $63 billion is anticipated to strengthen the energy grid and support economic growth [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 guidance range and expects to deliver at the midpoint or higher [26] - The company is optimistic about the legislative environment in Missouri, which supports significant investments in utility infrastructure [10] Other Important Information - The company has successfully prevented over 114,000 customer outages through smart technology investments, equating to more than 30 million outage minutes avoided [11] - The company plans to file for approval of a proposed rate structure for large load customers in the second quarter [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the 2.3 gigawatts referenced - Management clarified that the incremental change is from 1.8 to 2.3 gigawatts, with an additional 500 megawatts signed under construction agreements related to data centers [39] Question: Need for new generation due to load growth - Management expressed confidence that the current generation plans would be adequate to serve the 2.3 gigawatts of load growth anticipated [44] Question: Impact of potential changes to tax credits - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining tax credits for building generation resources affordably, emphasizing that these credits are crucial for customer rates [48] Question: Exposure to tariffs in the capital plan - Management estimated that about 2% of the overall capital plan could be exposed to tariffs, primarily related to battery projects, but noted that this is manageable [86][87] Question: Cost estimate for the Castle Bluff plant - Management confirmed that the cost estimate for the Castle Bluff 800 megawatt plant remains at $900 million [92] Question: EPS growth expectations - Management affirmed expectations for EPS growth to be at or above the midpoint of the 6% to 8% CAGR range for 2025 to 2029 [100]