Core Insights - Energy prices are expected to show a mixed trend in 2026, with gasoline prices declining while electricity and natural gas prices are anticipated to rise [1][8]. Gasoline Prices - Gas prices are projected to average $3 per gallon in 2026, representing a 10% decrease from 2024. Diesel prices are also expected to drop to $3.50 per gallon, down 7% from 2024 [2]. - The decline in gasoline prices is attributed to increased crude oil production by OPEC nations and a slowdown in global oil demand due to economic uncertainties and a shift towards electric vehicles [3]. Electricity Prices - Electricity prices have risen by 36% over the past five years and are expected to increase further, with residential retail electricity prices likely to rise by 4.2% in 2026 [5]. - The West South Central region, particularly Texas, is experiencing significant electricity demand growth due to data centers and cryptocurrency mining, leading to higher prices in that area [6]. Natural Gas Prices - Natural gas prices are expected to rise, with wholesale prices projected to be 16% higher on average in 2026 compared to the current year, driven by flat production levels and increased exports to meet foreign demand [6]. Economic Impact - Energy costs represent a significant portion of consumer budgets, particularly for low-income households, with a quarter spending over 15% of their income on energy [4]. - While the rise in electricity prices may not significantly impact national inflation, it will likely affect household budgets, especially in regions with a high concentration of data centers [7][8].

Oil Market Analysis - US liquid supply has increased by 13 million barrels per day, with approximately half from crude oil and half from natural gas liquids [2] - The current oil price level is considered attractive for the US economy as a whole [5] - An oil price in the low 50s (USD) is estimated to be needed for US shale producers to make a 15% return [6] - Strong supply growth environment exists due to the US, Brazil, Guyana, and core OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia [4] Metals Market Analysis - Fed cuts tend to support metals prices significantly more than energy prices [7] - Annual gold production from mines is only 1% of the total stock [9] - Potential US tariffs are leading to metal being shipped outside of the London market, putting upward pressure on both silver and copper prices [11] Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) - The US is refilling the SPR at a very slow pace [12] - The optimal level of SPR may be lower than when the US was a net importer [13]

Yeah. Uh here we go. We got Java is just coming straight across here falling to 224 in the week of December 13th from 237.Uh that was revised up from 236. So not a big deal. Uh let's see.4-week average rising to 217 because remember we had that big low number from Thanksgiving. So that was a seasonal problem I think. Continued claim rising to 1.897% in the week of December 6th.Um that's below consensus and it is up from 1.83% the prior week but still not at 1.9%. Now the number of the morning the CPI >> oh ...

Economic Outlook for 2026 - S&P Global Ratings expects AI tailwinds to boost otherwise weak growth in the US [1] - US growth is projected at 2%, potentially driven by AI and data centers, along with lower energy prices and easy financial conditions [2] - AI is estimated to contribute at least 0.5 percentage points to annual US growth [2] - Approximately 80% of domestic spending in the first part of the year was related to AI and data centers [2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing sector is experiencing contraction, with tariffs not resulting in the anticipated reshoring [2] - The US economy exhibits a narrowness in labor market strength, demand, manufacturing, and consumer spending [4] - Top 10% of Americans account for roughly 40-50% of spending, indicating a lack of broad-based recovery [5] - Rising electricity demand, driven by data centers, is pushing up utility prices for local communities [7][8] Global Implications - Europe and parts of Asia are benefiting from digital infrastructure build-out in the US, particularly in Ireland, Taiwan, Malaysia, and South Korea [9] - Europe's growth could reach 125% to 150% with the release of the German debt break, focusing on infrastructure and defense [11] - China faces challenges due to a property overhang, despite being a leader in clean tech, with growth around 4-45% [11] - Emerging Markets (EM) are benefiting from lower energy and gasoline prices, which constitute a significant portion of their consumption basket [12] AI and Labor Force Transformation - AI's initial impact on the labor force is expected to be negative, with potential layoffs in the tech sector [13] - The long-term aspiration is for AI to drive new technologies, productivity, and a labor renaissance [13]

The president uh is constantly saying prices have come down. Now inflation is still 3%. It's still too high.Now oil prices, energy prices, there are certain uh things where they have come down. But when you keep saying prices are falling, that's not true. Uh because inflation is still it's the 3% is on top of all the inflation we had uh during the Biden years.So we got all that inflation plus an additional 3%. And we should I think you should admit that >> a more a more precise way to say it though, Joe, is ...

Supply-Demand Imbalance - Increased load and demand are at levels not seen in the last 30-40 years, while the industry continues to operate under 50-year-old rules [4] - Utilities in the PJM marketplace, which do not own generation, are experiencing the greatest imbalance [4] - Vertically integrated utilities, representing 30-40% of the country, are not facing the same issues as they are increasing supply [5] - Customers are bearing the brunt of the supply shortage due to affordability issues [5] Addressing the Shortage - PJM recognizes its shortfalls and is working internally to address them [6] - Governors across the PJM states are collaborating on proposals to increase generation and address customer affordability issues [7][8] - Solutions will require short, mid, and long-term strategies and collective effort [8] Factors Contributing to Increased Demand - Data centers and AI are contributing to increased demand, but are not the sole cause [9] - Onshoring, manufacturing, and the electrification of everything are simultaneously creating a "perfect storm" [10] - Existing generator base is incentivized to maintain current load levels to maximize dollar value [10] Proposed Solutions - Allowing utilities to re-enter the generation business, with state control and management, could provide cost certainty and clarity [11] - Exelon CEO suggests combined cycle gas turbines, community solar, and battery storage as potential solutions [12]

I think let's start on Argentina because Scott Bessant just made a little news, moved the ball forward in some way about the unprecedented um bailout essentially what I think would normally be known as a currency swap, but usually that's predicated on some sort of policy change which we're not seeing right now. Um but uh he told Christ Welker um that we are supporting Argentina with this 40 >> We have the sound. >> Oh, we have the sound.Great. Let's play the sound. How is this move America first, Mr.. Secre ...

Energy Policy - Green energy policies in blue states are causing soaring energy prices [1] Political Commentary - Democrats should stop blaming Republicans for high energy prices [1]

Market Impact of Sanctions - US sanctions on Russian oil producers could remove 15 million to 25 million barrels per day from the market [2] - Enforced sanctions could lead to significantly higher oil prices, potentially reaching $80-$90 per barrel [4][5] - Even with workarounds and continued flows to China, Russian oil exports could still decrease by at least 1 million barrels per day, leading to higher prices [8] Sanction Enforcement and Workarounds - The market is skeptical about the enforcement of sanctions, as workarounds are often found [3][5] - Sanctions are considered more impactful than tariffs because banks and insurance companies become cautious, affecting funding and business dealings [10][11][12] - New entities in the Middle East may emerge to trade sanctioned volumes [7] Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - The Trump administration may have imposed sanctions due to low oil prices [9] - The EU is coordinating with the US on sanctions, despite potential impacts on Western energy prices [13][14] - The market is skeptical that the West has the appetite for high energy prices, influencing price expectations [15] Short-Term and Long-Term Price Outlook - Oil prices may grind higher in the short term, with Brent potentially trading at $70 again [15] - Many traders believe the rally is temporary due to an oversupplied market expected in 2026 [16][17] - If sanctions are enforced after the November 21st deadline, a material increase in prices could be seen into 2026, but a sell-off is expected after the near-term increase [17]

Economic Commentary - President Trump states gas, grocery, and energy prices are significantly reduced [1] Monetary Policy - President Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve, mentioning the chairman's impending departure [1]