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Tesla's Growing Energy Business: How Strong Is the 2026 Setup?
ZACKS· 2026-02-03 13:51
Core Insights - Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) business is facing challenges with declining deliveries, but its energy generation and storage segment is thriving, driven by strong demand for Megapack and Powerwall products [1][7] Group 1: Energy Generation and Storage Performance - Tesla's energy storage deployments have experienced a remarkable growth rate of 168% CAGR over the past three years [2] - In Q4 2025, Tesla reported record energy storage deployments of 14.2 GWh, with total deployments for the year reaching 46.7 GWh, marking a 49% increase year over year [3] - Energy generation and storage revenues reached $12.7 billion in 2025, up 27% from the previous year, contributing 13% to Tesla's total revenues [4] Group 2: Future Growth and Revenue Visibility - Tesla anticipates further growth in deployments with the introduction of Megapack 3 and the new Megablock solution, with production set to begin at Megafactory Houston [3][11] - The company expects to recognize $4.96 billion in deferred revenues from ongoing energy projects in 2026, more than double the amount recognized in 2025, indicating strong demand and a substantial backlog [5] Group 3: Profitability and Market Position - The energy segment achieved a gross profit of $1.1 billion in Q4 2025, marking the fifth consecutive record quarter, with full-year gross profit rising to approximately $3.8 billion, up 44% [6] - Despite potential margin pressures from competition and policy uncertainties, Tesla's energy business is noted for its scale, profitability, and growing demand, making it a resilient growth engine amid fluctuating EV demand [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors are expanding their energy storage initiatives in response to rising electricity demand and unpredictable EV sales [8] - Ford plans to convert part of its Kentucky battery plant for energy storage production and has committed an additional $2 billion to expand its energy business [9] - General Motors has launched GM Energy and introduced the PowerBank residential storage product, collaborating with Redwood Materials to repurpose EV batteries for stationary storage [10][12]