新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4988 期 2026 年 3 月 26 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：Robotaxi 疑似将进军新城市 Alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 3 月 17 日，在拉斯维加斯北部的亨德森镇，有人发现了配备"后置摄像头清洗装 置"（Robotaxi 专用硬件）的 Model Y 车队。此前特斯拉就公开表示，拉斯维加 斯是其 Robotaxi 车队的五座目标城市之一，其他城市分别是菲尼克斯、达拉斯 ...

大摩闭门会：参访特斯拉超级工厂，探讨 Robotaxi 赛博 出租车、Optimus 人形机器人、能源储能、Terafab 及 分部加总估值法 20260324 摘要 Robotaxi 2026 年年中前新增 7 城运营，重点优化奥斯汀及上下车数据； 预计 2026 年车队新增 1,000 辆（主为 Model Y），2030 年达 3 万辆， 2035 年目标 100 万辆。 FSD 无监督技术是估值核心，Robotaxi 与 FSD 网络服务合计贡献目标 价（415 美元）的 85%；未来几个月将推含更多推理功能的新版本，纯 视觉方案规模化仍是关键。 第三代 Optimus 或推迟至 2026Q2 发布，同年下半年在弗里蒙特量产 （将停产 Model S/X）；2027 年预期销量 5,000 台，初期单价 20-25 万美元，主供工业应用。 能源业务毛利>30%成现金流支柱，98%来自 Megapack；受竞争与关 税影响，预计 2026/27 年利润率分别压缩 300/200 个基点，长期稳定 在 20%左右。 Q&A 德州超级工厂考察后，关于自动驾驶出租车业务有哪些新的进展和见解，特别 是其与全自动 ...

Core Thesis - Tesla, Inc. is undergoing a strategic transformation from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a vertically integrated Physical AI and robotics company, with its automotive operations serving as a funding engine for this transition [3][5]. Financial Performance - As of March 17th, Tesla's share price was $399.27, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 369.69 and 192.31 respectively [1]. - Automotive revenue is projected to decline by 10% to $69.5 billion in 2025, yet gross margins have expanded to 17.7% through cost efficiencies [3]. - The energy generation and storage division has seen a 48% year-over-year increase in deployments to 46.7 GWh, generating $12.8 billion in revenue with nearly 30% margins [4]. Robotics and AI Initiatives - Tesla is aggressively pursuing humanoid robotics through its Optimus project, targeting a multi-trillion-dollar total addressable market [5]. - The company is reallocating resources by discontinuing Model S and X production to convert its Fremont facility into a dedicated robot manufacturing hub, aiming for an annual production of one million units [5][6]. - Optimus is expected to integrate into internal factory operations by 2026, with external commercialization to follow [6]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Position - Tesla has over $20 billion in planned capital expenditures and a cash reserve of $44 billion, which positions the company to build a significant compute and manufacturing advantage [7]. - Despite elevated valuations, Tesla presents asymmetric upside potential if it successfully monetizes robotics at scale, positioning itself as a leader in the emerging Physical AI supercycle [7].

Tesla (TSLA) is an electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer and global leader in sustainable energy and artificial intelligence. The company designs, manufactures, and sells a diverse ecosystem of products, including high-performance battery electric vehicles like the Model 3 and Cybertruck, stationary energy storage solutions such as Powerwall and Megapack, and solar energy systems. Beyond hardware, Tesla is a pioneer in "physical AI," aggressively developing Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, its own custom Doj ...

By anchoring key parts of its supply chain—batteries in Michigan and AI chips in Texas—Tesla is turning domestic factories into a buffer against its biggest external risk: China.This isn't about capacity. It's about exposure.A Factory That Doubles As InsuranceThe logic is simple. The more Tesla relies on overseas supply—especially China—the more it's exposed to tariffs, trade restrictions, and geopolitical shocks. A single policy shift can ripple through costs, timelines, and margins.A U.S. factory changes ...

Concerned about an AI bubble? Sign up for The Daily Upside for smart and actionable market news, built for investors. Last July, South Korea’s LG Energy Solution said it inked a $4.3 billion contract to supply batteries to … someone. The secret was as poorly kept as a college frat house, with reports immediately pointing to Tesla as the not-so-mysterious counterparty. Nearly eight months later, LG confirmed its deepened partnership with the Elon Musk-led automaker on Tuesday, after the Department of the I ...

Core Insights - Tesla is expanding its partnership with LG Energy Solution, committing to purchase $4.3 billion worth of battery cells for energy storage systems to be produced in Lansing, Michigan [1][6] - The energy segment of Tesla is experiencing significant growth, with a 27% increase in revenue to $12.8 billion, accounting for 13% of total revenue, despite a 10% decline in the automotive business [4][7] Group 1: Partnership and Production - The Lansing facility was initially developed for a joint venture between LG and General Motors, which has since retreated from the EV market [2][6] - LG Energy Solution will establish dedicated production lines at the Lansing facility to fulfill the agreement with Tesla [6] Group 2: Energy Business Growth - Tesla's energy business is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers [3][7] - Tesla's Megapacks are designed to store energy from intermittent sources like solar and wind, making it available during peak demand [3] Group 3: Market Competition and Challenges - Tesla faces competition from companies like BYD in China and various climate-tech startups [7] - The CFO of Tesla indicated potential margin compression in the energy segment due to low-cost competition and tariffs [7]

Core Insights - Tesla has received approval from the UK energy regulator Ofgem to supply electricity directly to households and businesses across Great Britain, marking a significant expansion in its energy sector presence [1][10] - The license allows Tesla Energy Ventures to provide electricity to both residential and non-residential customers in England, Scotland, and Wales, effective from March 11 [2][10] - This move aligns with Tesla's strategy to diversify its operations beyond electric vehicles, similar to its retail electricity business model in Texas [2][4] Expansion of Energy Operations - Tesla's entry into the UK electricity supply market follows previous efforts, including obtaining an electricity generation license in 2020 and deploying large-scale battery storage projects [3][7] - The company has partnered with Octopus Energy to connect Powerwall owners to a virtual power plant network, offering special electricity rates [3] Competitive Landscape - Tesla plans to implement elements of its Texas electricity model in the UK, which includes a virtual power plant that allows Tesla owners to charge vehicles at lower rates and earn credits for exporting electricity back to the grid [4][10] - The UK electricity supply license does not permit Tesla to offer dual-fuel contracts, requiring customers to maintain separate gas supply arrangements [4] Market Context - Tesla's expansion into electricity supply comes amid challenges in its automotive business, with vehicle sales in the UK declining by 37% year-over-year in February, totaling 2,422 units [5] - The decline is attributed to increased competition in the electric vehicle market and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [5][6]

Summary of Tesla, Inc. Energy Storage Business Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla, Inc. - **Industry**: Energy Storage and Automotive Key Points Energy Storage Business Performance - Tesla's Energy Storage business (ESS) has experienced significant growth, with deployments increasing over 10 times from 4 GWh in 2021 to 47 GWh in 2025, indicating strong demand and capacity expansion [1][6][34] - In 2025, ESS accounted for 13% of Tesla's total revenue, contributing to offsetting declines in automotive revenue [5][34] - Revenue from ESS is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% through the end of the decade, providing a growth bridge as the automotive business stabilizes [5][36] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tesla held the largest global market share in ESS in 2025, with approximately 20% of the market, significantly ahead of competitors like BYD and Huawei [25][30] - The U.S. market is expected to see demand for ESS grow from 42 GWh in 2025 to 80 GWh by 2030, with Tesla positioned to capture a significant share [26][30] Product Offerings - Tesla's ESS products include the consumer-oriented Powerwall and the commercial-sized Megapack, with over 1 million Powerwalls installed globally [12][21] - The Megapack is particularly targeted at utility-scale deployments, with significant sales to data centers, including a notable $430 million in sales to xAI in 2025 [22][19] Financial Metrics - Tesla's ESS generated approximately $12.8 billion in revenue in 2025, with a gross margin of around 30%, significantly higher than competitors like Fluence [34][30] - The average selling price (ASP) for storage was about $250 per kWh in 2025, with projections suggesting a potential revenue opportunity of $22 billion annually by 2027/28 if capacity ramps up as planned [13][34] Future Growth Opportunities - The total addressable market (TAM) for stationary storage is projected to reach approximately $100 billion annually by 2030, driven by increasing demand from data centers and utility-scale projects [23][24] - Tesla's ESS is expected to benefit from political pressures on data centers to manage their power needs, creating additional market opportunities [24][19] Capacity Expansion - Tesla's battery capacity is set to increase from approximately 85 GWh in 2025 to 135 GWh by 2027, driven by new facilities in Houston and Shanghai [7][13] - Current capacity constraints are expected to ease as production ramps up, allowing Tesla to meet growing demand [6][7] Margin Analysis - Tesla's gross margins in the ESS segment are supported by scale, vertical integration, and software capabilities, with margins expected to stabilize in the mid-20% range moving forward [30][36] - The vertical integration strategy allows Tesla to maintain higher margins compared to competitors who rely more on third-party components [30][31] Conclusion - Tesla's Energy Storage business is positioned for robust growth, driven by increasing demand, strategic capacity expansions, and a strong market position. The company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages to capture a significant share of the expanding ESS market, particularly in utility-scale and data center applications [1][5][36]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA) [2] Core Insights - Tesla is positioned as a pioneer in the electric vehicle industry, leveraging technological innovation to drive transformation across its three main business segments: automotive, energy storage, and services [6][38] - The company anticipates significant growth in both its automotive and energy storage markets, with projected revenues increasing from 702.24 billion RMB in 2024 to 1,003.93 billion RMB by 2028 [6] - The Robotaxi and humanoid robot segments are expected to be key growth drivers, with the Robotaxi market projected to reach approximately 66.6 billion USD by 2030 [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tesla are as follows: - 2024: 702.24 billion RMB - 2025: 666.52 billion RMB - 2026: 714.43 billion RMB - 2027: 828.62 billion RMB - 2028: 1,003.93 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 50.97 billion RMB - 2025: 26.67 billion RMB - 2026: 20.78 billion RMB - 2027: 45.84 billion RMB - 2028: 71.42 billion RMB - The projected PE ratios for 2026-2028 are 502, 228, and 146 respectively [6][8][9] Business Overview - Tesla's automotive segment remains the core revenue driver, with a projected revenue of 506.7 billion RMB in 2026, growing to 682.5 billion RMB by 2028 [8] - The energy storage segment is expected to see significant growth, with revenues projected to reach 897.7 billion RMB by 2025, driven by increased deployment of storage solutions [50] - The services segment is also on a growth trajectory, with revenues expected to rise to 880.7 billion RMB by 2025, supported by the expansion of the Supercharger network and new service offerings [53] Market Dynamics - The global electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive, but Tesla is expected to maintain its edge through advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and production capabilities [6][10] - The report highlights the anticipated growth in the Robotaxi market, with Tesla's revenue from this segment projected to reach 338 billion RMB by 2028 [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is positioned to open new growth avenues, with production plans targeting a capacity of 10 million units in the mid-term [6][8] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its FSD technology, which is expected to play a crucial role in the future of autonomous transportation [6][10]