November WTI crude oil (CLX25) on Thursday closed down -0.01 (-0.02%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) closed down -0.0075 (-0.38%). Crude oil and gasoline prices posted modest losses on Thursday after the dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 3-week high.  Also, the outlook for higher crude exports from Iraq is undercutting crude prices.  In addition, Thursday's decline in stocks has led to a risk-off sentiment in asset markets, weighing on crude prices. More News from Barchart Crude prices recovered m ...

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - October WTI crude oil is down -0.34 (-0.53%) and October RBOB gasoline is down -0.0092 (-0.45%) due to a stronger dollar and weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits [1] - Weekly EIA crude inventories and gasoline supplies fell more than expected, limiting losses in crude prices [1] Group 2: US Housing Market Impact - August US housing starts fell -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [2] - August building permits unexpectedly fell -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, weaker than the anticipated increase to 1.370 million [2] Group 3: Ukraine-Russia Conflict and Oil Supply - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices by curbing Russian crude exports and tightening global oil supplies [3] - Damage from Ukrainian drone attacks has led to a reduction in Russia's crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in early September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3] Group 4: Sanctions and Global Oil Supply Concerns - Ongoing war in Ukraine raises concerns about potential additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [4] - The US proposed that G7 allies impose tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil to pressure Russia to end the war [4]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 1.5-week highs, driven by a decline in the dollar index and concerns over Russian oil exports due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks [2][3] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is tightening global oil supplies, with significant damage to Russian oil infrastructure impacting crude processing rates [3][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil is up by 1.08 (+1.71%) and October RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0209 (+1.04%) [1] - A decrease in crude oil stored on tankers, which fell by 7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels, is also supporting oil prices [5] Economic Indicators - Strong US economic data, including a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales and a 0.2% rise in manufacturing production, is bullish for energy demand and crude prices [4] Geopolitical Factors - The war in Ukraine is leading to potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6] - Recent drone attacks on Russian refineries have significantly curtailed crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3]

So, number one, there's still a lot of gas from Russia going into Europe. 15% of Europe's gas supply still comes from Russia. Billion a year, I think, is the number, I think.Yeah. And and they've set a date to end that in the next 18 months. So, there's a big increased demand right there just for the United States to finish displacing the Russian gas.I also think you're going to see demand for AI and increased demand for electricity in Europe. Europe has not been a growth market for energy the last 20 years ...

Geopolitical Impact on Natural Gas Market - Middle East tensions highlight the importance of American energy and its role in global energy security [1] - American natural gas can replace energy from pro-dictator nations, fostering global stability, peace, and prosperity [2] - Geopolitical tensions are spiking, impacting trade dynamics [3] US LNG as a Strategic Tool - US LNG, as the number two export for America, is a key trading tool for strengthening international relationships and mitigating tariff impacts [4] - The current administration's support for US LNG is seen as a positive factor for stable trade and certainty for American business [4] - Leveraging US LNG can contribute to global peace and prosperity [5] Natural Gas Demand and Supply - The Middle East is expected to be a supplier of LNG, while Asia and Europe will be major demand centers for American LNG [7] - Increased US LNG is needed to replace Russian gas in Europe [8] - US LNG demand is projected to double by 2030, increasing by an incremental 15 BCF (billion cubic feet) per day [8] - The world is energy short, requiring more American energy to meet demand [9]