Core Insights - Energy stocks emerged as significant winners during a challenging first quarter, influenced by ongoing Middle East conflict and rising oil prices [1] Industry Summary - The first quarter was characterized by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which contributed to an increase in oil prices [1] - The performance of energy stocks was notably strong, indicating a positive correlation between geopolitical events and energy sector profitability [1]

But I want to emphasize, don't underestimate the type of volatility. If you take European gas in 2022, we saw Russia cut it. And by the way, the market ignored it in June of 2022.By August and September, you were at three $400 a barrel. Do you know where prices were in December of that year after you destroyed so much demand, they went negative. Um, so I'm not going to say oil's going negative, but what I'm trying to tell you is it's going to be a really bumpy ride.You've seen no evidence of demand destruct ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have surged above the $100 per-barrel mark due to escalating tensions in Iran, indicating potential volatility in the energy market [1] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The recent increase in oil prices reflects geopolitical instability, particularly related to the situation in Iran [1] - The breach of the $100 per-barrel threshold suggests a significant shift in market sentiment and could lead to further price fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy stocks have experienced significant gains recently, but there are indications that these gains may be reaching their peak and could potentially decline in the near future [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Energy stocks have surged, reflecting a strong performance in the sector [1] - The recent rally in energy stocks has been driven by rising oil prices and increased demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current gains in energy stocks may not be sustainable in the long term [1] - There are concerns about potential market corrections as supply and demand dynamics shift [1]

Group 1 - The Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) launched in November 2024, includes stocks based on short and long-term trends identified by Fundstrat [1][7] - GRNY ETF has eight stocks in common with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), indicating alignment with certain investment themes [2][6] - The current themes for the GRNY ETF include PMI recovery, energy stocks, cybersecurity stocks, labor suppliers, targeting millennials, and easing financial conditions [7] Group 2 - The eight common stocks between GRNY and DIA include Caterpillar Inc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Apple Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., NVIDIA Corp, American Express Co, Amazon.com Inc, and Microsoft Corp [3][4][5][6] - GRNY is down 0.32% year-to-date but has increased by 18.31% over the past 52 weeks, while DIA is up 3.46% year-to-date and 12.08% over the past 52 weeks [7][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of 30 stocks across various sectors, representing a broad view of the overall stock market health [8]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025, leaving a portfolio for successor Greg Abel that includes stocks shared with the Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF [1] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio includes four stocks in common with the Fundstrat Granny Shots ETF: Alphabet Inc, American Express Co, Amazon.com Inc, and Apple Inc [2][3][4][5] - Alphabet Inc is the fourth largest position in the GRNY ETF at 2.91% of assets and represents around 1.9% of Berkshire's portfolio with 17,896,142 shares [2] - American Express Co is the second largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio at 17.8%, valued at $55.9 billion, while it is the 22nd largest in GRNY at 2.42% [3] - Amazon.com Inc represents around 0.7% of Berkshire's portfolio, valued at approximately $2.3 billion, and is the 26th largest holding in GRNY at 2.38% [4] - Apple Inc is the largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, valued at $59.5 billion, representing around 19% of the portfolio, while it is the 32nd largest in GRNY at 2.27% [5] Group 2: Fundstrat Granny Shots ETF - The Granny Shots ETF employs a rules-based process to select stocks based on key themes, including PMI recovery, energy stocks, and targeting millennials [6] - The ETF has reached $4 billion in assets under management, gaining 2.7% year-to-date and 20.8% over the past 52 weeks [7] Group 3: Future Outlook for Berkshire Hathaway - Under Greg Abel's leadership, Berkshire may see changes in its investment strategy, including a potential sale of a large stake in Kraft Heinz [8] - Berkshire has been increasing its technology investments, possibly influenced by suggestions from leaders outside of Buffett [8] - A fourth-quarter 13F filing will provide insights into the portfolio's moves under Buffett, while the first quarter moves under Abel will be revealed in May [9]

Core Insights - Weak oil prices are not the primary concern for certain energy stocks, as other factors are contributing to their challenges [1] - The energy sector is experiencing turbulence due to fluctuating commodity prices, particularly in oil and gas [1] Company Summaries Oneok (OKE) - Oneok's share prices have decreased approximately 30% year to date, raising concerns about the effectiveness of recent mergers and acquisitions [3] - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, reflecting a 49% year-over-year increase, indicating potential recovery [4] - If EPS growth does not meet expectations in upcoming quarters, the stock may continue to decline [6] Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - Occidental's recent sale of its OxyChem division to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion has been perceived negatively by investors, leading to a decline in share prices [7] - The sale was an all-cash transaction, which is considered tax-inefficient, and the company is still liable for $1 billion in past environmental liabilities [10] - The stock has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16, but ongoing market concerns may lead to further declines in valuation [10] Williams Companies (WMB) - Williams Companies owns high-quality midstream assets but faces valuation concerns as its shares trade at 27 times forward earnings, higher than competitors like Enbridge and Kinder Morgan [11][13] - The company's share price has fallen by around 10% over the past month, with concerns about its relatively high valuation potentially impacting future performance [14]

Group 1 - Refiners have emerged as significant winners in the energy sector this year, as highlighted by Valero's earnings report [2] - The positive trend for refiners is expected to continue based on the current market conditions [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of energy stocks, suggesting they are often misunderstood in the market [1] - The author expresses a long position in specific energy stocks, indicating confidence in their potential [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to energy stocks [2]