Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. actions and rhetoric under President Trump, particularly regarding Europe, and emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its financial independence and investment at home in response to U.S. pressures [1][2][9]. Economic Context - Europe is urged to invest more of its vast savings domestically, as reliance on the U.S. economy and its capital markets poses risks, especially given the current political climate [2][11]. - The U.S. is identified as the world's largest debtor nation, relying on foreign capital, including significant European investments, to fund its deficits [6][9]. Investment Strategies - Joint borrowing within the eurozone is proposed as a means to create a safe asset that could rival U.S. Treasuries, thereby enhancing Europe's financial strength [5][12]. - The article highlights the need for Europe to better integrate its capital markets and develop a larger pool of safe assets to compete with U.S. financial instruments [12][15]. Market Reactions - The article notes that Trump's tariff threats led to market volatility, but his quick reversal indicates a vulnerability in U.S. policy and a potential leverage point for Europe [7][8]. - European investors have historically benefited from capital exports to the U.S., but the current political climate may necessitate a reevaluation of this strategy [10][15]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that ongoing tensions and unpredictability in U.S. policies could drive European investors to diversify away from U.S. assets, although this process may take time [11][15]. - The need for Europe to bolster its military and infrastructure spending is highlighted as a way to increase the supply of European bonds, which could help stem capital outflows [12][15].

WORKING PAPER 25-14 The US Trade Deficit and Foreign Borrowing How Long Can It Continue? Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon July 2025 ABSTRACT The United States has run significant external deficits for half a century and the associated net international liabilities have been growing, especially recently. Yet, in contrast to earlier periods when the deficit was rising, few economists have expressed concerns about external sustainability lately. This paper explores the drivers and risks associated with the d ...