Expected Move
Search documents
2 Defined-Risk Options Strategies to Trade Quarterly Earnings Without Gambling
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-11 16:13
Group 1 - The earnings season leads to significant market movements characterized by price gaps, volatility spikes, and rapid reversals, prompting traders to prefer options trading over direct stock transactions [1] - Barchart's options tools provide traders with a statistical edge by helping them understand the expected move priced in by the options market [1][5] - The expected move is calculated as 85% of the at-the-money straddle premium for the expiration date following the quarterly report, indicating the probable high and low price range for a stock based on implied volatility [3][4] Group 2 - The average earnings move reflects historical stock reactions post-earnings, allowing traders to compare current market expectations with past performance [6] - For Broadcom (AVGO), traders are anticipating a 6.15% expected move after the earnings report, which is significantly lower than the stock's average historical reaction of 11.87% over the last four quarters, suggesting modest expectations for the stock's performance [7]
Options Corner: PLTR
Youtube· 2025-11-07 14:04
Core Insights - Palantir has significantly outperformed the overall market and its technology sector, with a 213% increase over the past year compared to the S&P's 12.5% rise [2] - The company specializes in large-scale analytics for counterterrorism and other unique projects, making it difficult to find direct comparisons with other firms [3] - Despite a recent pullback, Palantir's stock remains up over 130% year-to-date, indicating strong investor interest [9] Stock Performance - Palantir's stock has shown a range between 169 and 187, with a recent high of 207.50 before declining [4][5] - The stock stabilized at a 63-day exponential moving average around 175, which may serve as a support level [6] - An expected move of approximately 11% is anticipated for the stock by November 21, with key volume nodes identified at 153 and 190 [7] Trading Strategy - A neutral to bullish trading strategy is suggested, taking advantage of the higher implied volatility due to a recent 12% pullback [10] - The proposed trade involves selling a 165 strike put and buying a 155 put, creating a $10 wide neutral to bullish put vertical [12] - This strategy offers a potential profit of $250 with a risk of $750, providing a break-even point at 162.5, which is about 5.5% below the expected opening price [13][14]