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德意志银行:中国追踪-聚焦国内需求
Deutsche Bank AG· 2025-05-29 14:12
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand in China due to a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, while export performance remains under observation [2] - High-frequency indicators have been introduced to track property market trends and government expenditure [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Exports - June container forward prices are double the spot rate, indicating potential volume growth despite a slight drop in export indicators such as imports from Korea and shipping volumes [4] - Export growth is expected to slow in May before a potential recovery in June [4] Property Sector - Mixed signals are observed in the property sector, with new home sales slightly down compared to 2024, while secondary market transaction volumes have increased [4] - Land sales have surged by approximately 35% in May compared to the same period in 2024, which may support new home construction [4] - Local governments are issuing special Local Government Bonds (LGBs) to purchase idle land, although the scale is smaller than in 2018-2019 [4] Fiscal Spending - Net CGB funding has reached 40% year-to-date, significantly higher than the average of 26% over the past three years [4] - Total government spending has increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the average growth of 4% over the past three years [4] - The robust fiscal spending is expected to cushion against external economic challenges and maintain resilient domestic demand [4]