i loved explaining yt-steth trades 65% below fair value and the market was like "oh we'll price it at 2.3% when steth yields 3.8%" like okay i'll take your september 26 money ...

Ethereum still has massive upside against Bitcoin.Fair value is far from reached! https://t.co/dLyojzQQeH ...

i feel solana processing 92% of nasdaq volume at 0.4% capacity, from being the technical benchmark, to a $194 regulatory hostage.the sec delays create a $336 gap to mathematical fair value that defi development corp is eating.give me direct exposure before etf arbitrage closes. ...

Arguably,$ETH was worth $4,000 in 2021. Overpriced during that period.$ETH was worth $4,000 in Dec '24. Probably fair value during that period.$ETH is currently worth $4,000 while stablecoins surge, ETF staking applied, all the governmental approvals in the U.S.It wouldn't be strange if $ETH surges to $6,500-8,000. That seems to be a fair price.Short-term?Unlikely we'll continue to run in one-go. It just went up by $2,000 (90%) in less than a month.Short-term risk of buying here exceed the rewards, so I thi ...

Market Valuation & Trends - The fair value of the cryptocurrency asset class is estimated to be approximately $4.137 trillion, while the actual value is around $3.782 trillion [2] - This represents an undervaluation of approximately 8.58% [3] - The asset class is expected to trend towards a market cap of $10 trillion, but pullbacks and even a bear market are possible before 2026 [19][20] Altcoin Dynamics & Bitcoin Dominance - To see a more durable move to being overvalued, the altcoin market has to participate [5][12][18] - The industry is potentially in a blue chip dominance phase, where Bitcoin and Ethereum are drawing liquidity from other altcoins [12][13][18] - Bitcoin dominance could see another surge potentially starting in late August, September, or October [13] - It is possible for both Bitcoin dominance and ETH/Bitcoin to increase simultaneously, as altcoins can bleed to both Bitcoin and ETH [14][15][16][17] Historical Context & Risk Assessment - Overvaluations can lead to bear markets, as seen in 2022, 2018, and 2014 [8][9] - Extensions from the fair value in March 2024 were about the same as in December 2024, with undervaluation drops of around 30-35% [10][11]

Market Valuation and Trends - The fair value logarithmic regression trend line for the cryptocurrency asset class is approximately $3.99 trillion [3] - The total cryptocurrency asset class is currently valued at around $3.266 trillion, representing an undervaluation of approximately 18.23% [3] - Historically, the cryptocurrency asset class has often remained below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line [4] - Bitcoin has been outperforming most of the altcoin market, leading to altcoins bleeding to Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin rallies are supported by ETF flows, companies adding Bitcoin to their reserves, DCAing (Dollar-Cost Averaging), and conversion from altcoins [8] - The asset class has found support multiple times at a level representing approximately 30% undervaluation [17][18] Factors Influencing the Market - Monetary policy, particularly interest rates, is considered a significant factor influencing altcoin rallies; higher interest rates may hinder durable altcoin rallies [14][15] - Quantitative tightening also plays a role in preventing durable altcoin rallies and overvaluations [15] Future Outlook - The general expectation is that the cryptocurrency asset class will eventually reach approximately $10 trillion, plus or minus a few trillion [19]

All right. So, we're just about at the halfway point of the year right now. The start of the second half actually starts tomorrow.Um, and you sent us what's your S&P 500 uh year-end targets. Now, I thought this was pretty interesting. Your base case, you gave us a bull and a bare case as well, but your base case is 6,300.That's just about a 1% rise from where we're at right now. Um, why only a 1% rise. I mean, what do you see happening. What sectors do you see moving higher, perhaps moving lower, or does ev ...

Market Valuation - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, then crashed to near bear market levels, down almost 20% for the S&P 500, reaching fair value, but has since recovered by 10% and is now slightly overvalued [3] - The speaker believes the market is slightly overvalued, contrasting with a fair valuation assessment from one to two weeks prior [4] Insider Trading Trends - Insider buying trends historically correlate with market valuation, with insider buying often signaling a good time to buy [4] - The historical average buy-to-sell ratio for insiders is about 04% [6] - Significant insider buying activity occurred during market downturns such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 2012 US government shutdown, and the 2020 pandemic when the market was down 30% within two weeks [7] - Recently, insider activity picked up as the market approached bear market territory, rising above the 04% average to around 05% in the last two months, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [7][8] Data Analysis Methodology - The insider trading chart displays monthly cumulative data, calculated by dividing total insider buy counts by total sell counts for that month [9] - The calculation includes public market trading at current stock prices, excluding option exercises or private market deals [10] - The analysis counts transactions rather than the number of shares, though a "shares volume option" has been added this month [10][11] - Analyzing the buy-sell ratio is considered more effective than analyzing the sell-buy ratio [11][12] - Insider behavior as a group is more indicative of market trends than individual insider actions [13]