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Farmland Partners: Asset Value +30% Above Market Price
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-25 17:04
Core Viewpoint - Farmland Partners (FPI) is significantly undervalued as its stock price has declined while farmland values have risen, with asset value estimated between $13-$20 per share [1][8][63]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - FPI's stock has decreased approximately 22% over the past year, contrasting with increasing farmland values [2][11]. - The stock price is currently trading at a substantial discount to its asset value, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [25][63]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Guidance - FPI has increased its AFFO (Adjusted Funds from Operations) per share guidance to a midpoint of $0.34, reflecting a 17% growth from 2024 [5][8]. - The USDA reports a 4.3% increase in land values for 2025 compared to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% over the last five years [11][12]. Group 3: Land Value and Quality - FPI's land is primarily located in high-value areas such as Illinois and California, with average land values significantly higher than the national average [51][52]. - The quality of FPI's farmland is superior, as evidenced by higher rental rates compared to USDA averages, with an estimated rent per acre around $300 [55][60]. Group 4: Strategic Actions and Financial Management - FPI has executed share buybacks, debt paydowns, and special dividends, with liabilities reduced from nearly $500 million in 2023 to $180 million by Q3 2025 [30][33]. - The company has also utilized proceeds from asset sales to acquire new farmland, focusing on high-quality row crop farmland in the corn belt [38][39]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current trade dynamics, particularly with China halting soybean purchases, have created short-term challenges, but overall demand for food remains stable [16][19]. - FPI's management is aware of the stock's undervaluation and is likely to continue share buybacks rather than issuing new shares at a discount [65][66].